WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[Derbyshire_snow]

If anything NAE has moved snow risk slightly north at this timescale http://expert-images...020112_3012.gif

Edit: Thanks snowmadchrisuk

I'll bank that the heaviest of the precip is bang over me cracking chart

[shotski]

JMA long range ensemble mean are keen to show heights to our north east as opposed

to our north west.

If I was a betting man I would say we will get our Greenie high late Feb but before that a decent

shot at a scandi high.

[La Bise]

Note to forumites, you're supposed to be nice weather geek chaps, not testosterone fuelled sport jocks sizing up your manhood.

Be nice.

Now, for the pub run, I'm concerned about those windspeed this week-end, let's see what it shows!

[That ECM]

18z Nae continues with the theme of the 12z with Heavy Snow over the Midlands, With Mogreps aggreing the 18z GFS will be interesting .

42 accumulation chart shows a different story with a line from Liverpool across to Grimsby. Taking this as gospel would suggest that parts further south would see falling snow but not settling. Something I think sm had suggested earlier. At least it wouldn't be that m4 line this time!

Edited January 30, 2013 by That ECM

[snowmadchrisuk]

42 accumulation chart shows a different story with a line from Liverpool across to Grimsby. Taking this as gospel would suggest that parts further south would see falling snow but not settling. Something I think sm had suggested earlier. At least it wouldn't be that m4 line this time!

Some crazy amounts if it was to fall as snow , I apologize I think my previous chart was the 12z , They normally blank them out when a new run comes out ... The 18z Accum chart is below and even if it falls as rain it screems flooding ...

[bluearmy]

The heaviest precip on the updated nae is along the M4 corridor. Assuming the snow further north was induced by intensity, i dont think there will be much evident on this run.

[SMU]

The heaviest precip on the updated nae is along the M4 corridor. Assuming the snow further north was induced by intensity, i dont think there will be much evident on this run.

Yes well spotted.

Maybe some snow for places like Luton again / higher places in herts etc

S

[snowmadchrisuk]

The heaviest precip on the updated nae is along the M4 corridor. Assuming the snow further north was induced by intensity, i dont think there will be much evident on this run.

Will be interesting to see , although there is still some large totals showing over the Midlands , especially the East Midlands.

[shaky]

Will be interesting to see , although there is still some large totals showing over the Midlands , especially the East Midlands.

Exactly what i was going to say!!maybe most of the midlands will copp the snow this time instead of yorkshire and lincs!!

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs 12z ended with a stonking chart, low to the southwest poised to undercut the block and charts similar to the freeze we just had, the gfs and ecm 12z are again showing a rather cold and windy spell next week with showers becoming wintry and more to snow from midweek as a Northerly blast digs in (subject to timings)hopefully the displaced azores high won't interfere too much and hang back further west, plenty of cold to tap into from the north and northeast in FI..Fingers crossed we keep the reloads going until we get a more prolonged very cold outbreak and make this winter, one to remember for all the right reasons.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Frosty039

[snowmadchrisuk]

Exactly what i was going to say!!maybe most of the midlands will copp the snow this time instead of yorkshire and lincs!!

We will find out soon , seems to be taking forever to come out tonight .. I hope it isn't being modified - (I know it isn't being really) Not sure if it will be Cold enough to settle that much though due to the recent warm up of ground temps , but will have to check due points when there out .

[J10]

NAE Snow risk has not yet been updated for snow risk on Friday on Weatheronline at least. Ian (SW thread) indicates, as low pressure not as deep the snow risk on 18hz not as great as 12Hz.

However precipitation totals has been update and heaviest precipitation further south.

[AWD]

We will find out soon , seems to be taking forever to come out tonight .. I hope it isn't being modified - (I know it isn't being really) Not sure if it will be Cold enough to settle that much though due to the recent warm up of ground temps , but will have to check due points when there out .

Useful, informative post from Ian Fergusson in the SW thread regarding what modifications Exeter have done to the 18z NAE if your interested.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Useful, informative post from Ian Fergusson in the SW thread regarding what modifications Exeter have done to the 18z NAE if your interested.

Yes I know that , but I think on weather online it is the raw NAE ... The Met Modify them sometimes for operational reasons. However I expect the Snow risk has been lessened going by Ian's latest post.

edit at 36 hours shows snow risk for Wales

Edited January 30, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Tom Jarvis]

Hi all heard reports of a meteorite at 21:03 anyone see it in here???

Edited January 30, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[bluearmy]

Hi all heard reports of a meteorite at 21:03 anyone see it in here???

there was a disagreement but no meteorite !!!

[Snowman.]

Hi all heard reports of a meteorite at 21:03 anyone see it in here???

http://lunarmeteorit...teorite_30.html

Nothing.

Edited January 30, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[snowmadchrisuk]

Snow risk continues for the Midlands .....

[mountain shadow]

Monday and Tuesday of next week firming up as bitingly cold with frequent snow showers and gales in the North and West.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130130/18/132/prectypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130130/18/123/airpressure.png

[Panayiotis]

Cold is still there on Thursday, with the Azores being our friend and not toppling over us, but instead ensures the NW winds with -5C covering the whole UK.

[bluearmy]

Better effort from gfs but it's still quite confused with a messy looking solution. At least it's found a cold high in low res. Just put it in the wrong place where there should be a mean trough!

[Jason M]

Better effort from gfs but it's still quite confused with a messy looking solution. At least it's found a cold high in low res. Just put it in the wrong place where there should be a mean trough!

Yes, it goes a bit Pete Tong as the resolution drops. Anything past that point is just nonsense now.

As always, the ensembles around 192-240 will be interesting tonight.

As an aside, just seen the latest BBC forecast. Still some uncertainty but focus is on the rain rather than snow.

Jason

[mountain shadow]

Love how the 0c icotherm wraps a lovely blanket around the Uk and Ireland and no where else.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130130/18/348/h850t850eu.png

Bottom line remains, if we are going to get this promised cold spell from mid February then the PV glued to southern Greenland needs to do one pronto.

[Jason M]

Worth remembering that opp runs at lower res than the ensembles from 192 onwards. In this scenario therefore i'd give it less weight than any of the ensemble members after 192 as i'd imagine most of the ensembles will not be miles away from the opp at 180ish hours.

Jason

[nick sussex]

Love how the 0c icotherm wraps a lovely blanket around the Uk and Ireland and no where else.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130130/18/348/h850t850eu.png

Bottom line remains, if we are going to get this promised cold spell from mid February then the PV glued to southern Greenland needs to do one pronto.

Yes it seems to have been sat there for the whole winter. We can still get something from the east or ne as long as it just relaxes a little and edges a bit further west or nw.

As for the GFS lower resolution it does look a bit clueless but at least edged a little towards the ECM in the higher resolution before it hit the buffers.