WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I'm getting a sneaky feeling with the output at the moment, battleground scenarios don't need huge Greenland or Scandi highs, and the recent spell was in this vein and was pretty good for many, deep cold is wonderful but snow from the margins is also great.

Can we get two seperate snowy spells in one winter?? Haven't seen that often in the last 20 years! (long way to go either way yet though)

Feb 09 was good , the winter 09/10 right through to feb was very good and I remember seeing 3 inches on three consecutive Wednesdays on the trot , was weirded but great, that was on very low ground. So bar winter 09/10 I would agree.

I do feel as though this feb could well be fabulous . . .

[cooling climate]

All comments on the GFS & not one on the UKMO>..

me thinks people are looking at the wrong model!

Just in and reading through the posts was thinking the same myself. Much better t144 than GFS

and as has been mentioned the wedge of high pressure to the north. Could be a very good ECM

tonight. I wonder will the Euro's trounce the GFS in this up and coming pattern change its beginning

to look like it.

[Stu_London]

Despite the operational not quite delivering, fabulous set of GEFS ensembles tonight. All go cold at the 5th Feb and about half stay cold for the entire run.

This together with the promise shown by the Meto model gives us the clearest signal yet of another cold spell in February.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So far , we have the ukmo , that at t120 looks good with strong cold polar northwest winds , and then by t144 we have a good long feed of northerly winds ,with the Atlantic high ridging into southeastern greenlands , so it would be cold but the potential from that point would be even better . Then we have the gfs that's also looks good , not as good , but still develops northern blocking and a disformed and disturbed PV , so lets see what the ECM brings, could be a full house.

[chris55]

Despite the operational not quite delivering, fabulous set of GEFS ensembles tonight. All go cold at the 5th Feb and about half stay cold for the entire run.

This together with the promise shown by the Meto model gives us the clearest signal yet of another cold spell in February.

Yes, the 12z ens are the coldest since the last cold spell (from the 5th) the scatter beyond the 8th has reduced significantly compared to the 00z and 06z, with more runs now sustaining the colder theme.

Edited January 31, 2013 by chris55

[chris55]

120 looking decent from the ECM, slightly better than the UKMO for the same period.

Edited January 31, 2013 by chris55

[SMU]

THe important thing on the ECM 120 tonight is the wave of energy is going NE up the western side of greenland & away south- so there wont be any easterly jet-

S

[-uksnow-]

ECM if anything appears a little better than the UKMO @ 120

UKMO:

Heights 10mb higher over GL (Although still surfaced based southern GL is less surface based

Also good to see very little PV west of GL and to the North of Canada where is has been plaguing us recently... roll on 144

[Tim Bland]

ECM shows it being very snowy in Scotland on Tuesday. There's also also a nice kink in the flow around East Anglia. Further west would get showers in the NW flow. Win win!!

Chart posted below at t144 shows the low over Scotland slipping south. Maybe a marginal snow event from this? Uppers around -4c so maybe high ground only

Edited January 31, 2013 by Tim Bland

[-uksnow-]

Delicious wedge N of Iceland!

[shaky]

My god that ecm 144 hr chart looks beautifull ðŸ˜

[Snowman.]

Hmmm

Is that what I think it is?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013013112/ECH1-168.GIF?31-0

Not bad with that shaft of high pressure & an elonged trough due to trough disruption heading over the UK- again promising some snow on its eastern flank-

Cold with maximas ~ 3c for the MEAN.

The 192 could look very good.....

S

[polarlow2]

Hmmm

Is that what I think it is?

Edited January 31, 2013 by polarlow2

[Snowman.]

?

WAA inbound.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Have to remember that temps will fall readily to close to freezing in any heavy ppn in these set ups.

Agree for most it will be a non or temp settling snow event especially as bands of showers will move through very quickly

The conventive possibilities is where the fun is at with this system, rather than sustained severe winter conditions - couldn't rule out thundersnow somewhere and if we get a trough a Jan 2004 (??) type event couldn't be completely ruled out

I agree re. convective possibilities- chances are somewhere will see thundersnow (most likely to the west of high ground) and hail is often widespread in that sort of setup. The GFS precipitation charts also show showery activity getting well inland.

[Snowman.]

?

WAA inbound off the eastern seaboard.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013013112/ECH1-192.GIF?31-0

Hum no bad.... snow possible for the west country- & snow for Scotland.

Im off for a week from Sat next week

S

[Jason M]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013013112/ECH1-192.GIF?31-0

Hum no bad.... snow possible for the west country- & snow for Scotland.

Im off for a week from Sat next week

S

850s are very marginal though in the range of -4 to -6 across most parts. By that time it should be a bit more imbedded though which will help.

Jason

[MR EXTREMES]

All comments on the GFS & not one on the UKMO>..

me thinks people are looking at the wrong model!

and look at the ecm steve pretty good i agree the gfs starts good but dont float my boat beyond tuesday next week.

but ukmo and ecm so far really good.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013013112/ECF1-216.GIF?31-0

Snow flurries for E Kent + suffolk in -8c air..

S

[Snowman.]

The High over Russia has moved a couple Hundred miles west if we can get that into Scandy...

[nick sussex]

I can't decide whether I prefer the UKMO or ECM at 144hrs.

Theres a little less energy spilling east near Greenland on the UKMO and its wedge might prove a bit more resistant, lucky this is a UK forum and not a USA one, a lot of talking about wedges in here tonight!

Edited January 31, 2013 by nick sussex

[MR EXTREMES]

surely hopefully a alantic and scandi link up hopefully not a sinking link up.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013013112/ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

& finally a difficult chart to acertain the surface conditions- very cold in the SE, warming up in the NW- energy trying to undercut- scandi pressure could be higher -

that chart could be a small tweak away from being a lot better- again similarities to feb 12

S