WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[MR EXTREMES]

i think its wrong steve i think its way to progressive and as you said earlier its a great lover of flattening heights and letting the alantic steam roller back in.

still we have the mighty ukmo and ecm not really looked at the gem but im sure its not to far from the ecm.

[bluearmy]

I must be missing something here because the ECM ensemble mean at day 10 shows low heights to the nw of the UK. The mean is very close to the operational run so its impossible to have that level of support for something which goes completely against the mean.

Perhaps Matt H meant something else but its simply impossible for all the ECM ensemble members to support a block to the nw. Sorry to spoil the party but I think Matts been on the brandy or has access to the netweather happy ensembles!lol

i think you are looking too far nw nick. just nw of scotland and se of iceland is fine to bring in an ne/e flow. the mean trough is over greenland.

[Ice Day]

quite a nice chart how possible is the 1st and can i ask is this setup mild versus cold battle?

Some more learned posters could give you a far better answer than me, however to get a battleground you would generally need a low pressure from the west hitting embedded cold air over the UK. This chart shows a high moving in so no battleground!

[nick sussex]

i think you are looking too far nw nick. just nw of scotland and se of iceland is fine to bring in an ne/e flow. the mean trough is over greenland.

Lol no, nw of the UK to me is near Iceland southern Greenland not the Isle of Skye! Lets be honest if I said block to the nw people would think at least a decent cell near Iceland, I don't doubt we have a chance of an e/ne flow but the ECM mean simply does not support the inference in that tweet.

[mountain shadow]

The 18z goes on its merry way, to far east to flat- typical standard fare for the GFS...

S

Not a lot of difference between the GFS and ECM at 240...

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130131/18/240/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130131/12/ecm500.240.png

Both show the Atlantic moving in.

I see nothing in the output showing a cold spell from next week and I see speak as someone who will see a good lot during the week.

[Panayiotis]

One thing that is becoming evident is the russian high as we near the end of Fi.Sometimes we can get an undercut which would give us an amazing easterly, and if the 18z went on further I would expect the low to go under, and give us an easterly which is origin would be from China! However the russian high can be our enemy and we saw this in December 2012 and we were in a 'stuck pattern' before the Azores came into play and flattened out everything. It is Fi and little details like the ones I am on about shouldnt be worried about but the signal is there for the Russian high.Quite evident on the 12z ensembles, and some of them are the best easterlies I have ever seen, so if we get lucky the rewards will be amazing!

http://www.meteociel...0&ech=6&carte=0

Edited January 31, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bluearmy]

Lol no, nw of the UK to me is near Iceland southern Greenland not the Isle of Skye! Lets be honest if I said block to the nw people would think at least a decent cell near Iceland, I don't doubt we have a chance of an e/ne flow but the ECM mean simply does not support the inference in that tweet.

we can agree to disagree then but if i meant iceland, i'd say iceland and if i meant greenland, i'd say greenland. nw of the uk is, like it says on the tin, between scotland and iceland.

[SMU]

wow those 2 charts are a country mile apart....

Its going to be a full 48 hours before the models - more particular the GFS sees where things may be going-

My advice would be stick with the UKMO once again.

S

[TEITS]

Late catching up tonight.

I think its clear looking at the output that I have a greater chance of winning the Lotto than any form of blocking over Greenland. A few days ago the models hinted the Canadian PV might weaken but that certainly isn't the case. This isn't really surprising because blocking over Greenland has never appeared all winter. Clearly see this on the charts below.

The N,ly at +144 is looking pretty solid although the track of the LP between +96/+120 around Greenland still needs to be resolved. Beyond this and we could see something similar to our last cold spell i.e no significant blocking to our N or E but a wedge of HP with SW tracking SE. Anyone on the N&E side of these systems could see snowfall.

A word of caution though. The GFS has the general pattern further E than the ECM and whilst this might be typical GFS model bias it cannot be ignored. On a negative side we could easily see the N,ly quickly followed by a return to W,lys as not only does the GFS suggest but also the BOM. However for the time being im sticking with the N,ly followed by NE/E,ly outlook.

Check the GEM 0Z/12Z and you can see alot of uncertainity with regards to how far E or W this pattern could change. Much to be sorted out yet.

[bluearmy]

Not a lot of difference between the GFS and ECM at 240...

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.240.png

Both show the Atlantic moving in.

I see nothing in the output showing a cold spell from next week and I see speak as someone who will see a good lot during the week.

two things - not a good idea to compare operational charts at day 10 and the charts have a fair degree of difference in the direction of energy and, crucially, the pattern over europe. comparing the ens means at day 10 will probably give you a better idea of the direction of travel and i cant see it being not cold. if you are expecting dec 2010 then as will be the case for the next hundred years, you will be let down.

[nick sussex]

Additionally regarding twittergate and the supposed total support for the e/ne flow if the majority of the ECM ensembles had an e/ne you'd see more dilution of the operational run at that stage when looking at the mean.

The problem here is that if it goes pearshaped with the resultant carnage in here then people will be wondering how on earth total support for the cold imploded.

I'm not being difficult for the sake of it but simply the tweet can not be correct, I advise people look at the ECM operational run and then the mean at 240hrs and work out how every single ECM ensemble member can have an e/ne flow over the UK at that time.

Perhaps Matt got the dates wrong or if hes about can clarify the ECM ensemble mystery.

Edited January 31, 2013 by nick sussex

[weather_it_will]

Not a lot of difference between the GFS and ECM at 240...

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.240.png

Both show the Atlantic moving in.

I see nothing in the output showing a cold spell from next week and I see speak as someone who will see a good lot during the week.

At T240 (or 10 days) that is unlikely to verify, and charts/comments already been posted showing a shift west on this run.

During the last cold spell, anything more than T72 was unreliable.

[Snowman.]

Not a lot of difference between the GFS and ECM at 240...

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.240.png

Both show the Atlantic moving in.

I see nothing in the output showing a cold spell from next week and I see speak as someone who will see a good lot during the week.

Are you blind?

MASSIVE Difference there heights creeping in north-east in Greenland and one has heights over the top of us.

Both can lead to cold.

at T240 why are you even worrying?

[TEITS]

I'm not being difficult for the sake of it but simply the tweet can not be correct, I advise people look at the ECM operational run and then the mean at 240hrs and work out how every single ECM ensemble member can have an e/ne flow over the UK at that time.

Simple Nick because if that was the case the ensemble mean would look very different.

Im assuming the ensembles are a mixture of some showing W,lys and others E,lys. Absolutely no chance they are all showing E/NE,lys.

[Captain Shortwave]

Additionally regarding twittergate and the supposed total support for the e/ne flow if the majority of the ECM ensembles had an e/ne you'd see more dilution of the operational run at that stage when looking at the mean.

The problem here is that if it goes pearshaped with the resultant carnage in here then people will be wondering how on earth total support for the cold imploded.

I'm not being difficult for the sake of it but simply the tweet can not be correct, I advise people look at the ECM operational run and then the mean at 240hrs and work out how every single ECM ensemble member can have an e/ne flow over the UK at that time.

Perhaps Matt got the dates wrong or if hes about can clarify the ECM ensemble mystery.

Could be a simple typo, he could mean blocking to the north east, I might be wrong but e and w are right next to each other

Edited January 31, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

AS ever the last chart leaves us thinking that If it went on could we get some kind of block from the East and a LP system moving into northern France which would leave gaps for heights to build.

[nick sussex]

Simple Nick because if that was the case the ensemble mean would look very different.

Im assuming the ensembles are a mixture of some showing W,lys and others E,lys. Absolutely no chance they are all showing E/NE,lys.

Thanks Dave, you know I'm optimistic we will get an e/ne flow so I'm not trying to downplay the chances but when Matt H tweets in here often the whole thing snowballs with people dusting off the sledge.

As you said the mean would not resemble the operational run if all the ensembles went for an e/ne flow, those low heights would be much further to the nw.

[TEITS]

Could be a simple typo, he could mean blocking to the north east, I might be wrong but e and w are right next to each other

I have just read his comment on Twitter and I just don't understand it.

Firstly blocking to the NW?

No way are all 51 ensembles showing blocking to the NW. The SLP mean across Iceland is 1000mb with a W,ly flow.

Thanks Dave, you know I'm optimistic we will get an e/ne flow so I'm not trying to downplay the chances but when Matt H tweets in here often the whole thing snowballs with people dusting off the sledge.

As you said the mean would not resemble the operational run if all the ensembles went for an e/ne flow, those low heights would be much further to the nw.

Im really puzzled and feel Matt has misled those who follow him on Twitter. If Matt is reading this then I don't mean any offence but his reading of the ensembles is wrong.

Edited January 31, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[nick sussex]

I have just read his comment on Twitter and I just don't understand it.

Firstly blocking to the NW?

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?31-0

No way are all 51 ensembles showing blocking to the NW. The SLP mean across Iceland is 1000mb with a W,ly flow.

Dave its the new super mini block that resides on a rock off the Hebrides! you know its small in stature but can withstand an Atlantic attack. This super mini cell gives us all an e/ne flow! maybe Matt meant to say a part of the UK ie Dover has a weakish ne/e flow at that point on the ensembles forgetting about the rest of the country!.

[bluearmy]

If he'd written 'ridging' would you accept it as being feasible. 'I'm looking at the ens means days 9 and 10 and wondering why you seem confused. Btw, matt possibly doesnt mean all but i reckon its likely more than 80% with the ridging ne just to our nw like the ens mean shows.

[TEITS]

Just been looking at the NAO forecasts and it looks as though this winter is going to finish around neutral which is quiet fitting because this has been a disappointment. Those in the NE of the US are moaning because they haven't seen one noreaster and this is because of the lack of a negative NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

When this winter is over it will be interesting to hear why the NAO has gone pearshaped along with the lack of a blocking over Greenland. If I remember correctly GP expected the core of blocking to move W over Winter with the NAO becoming a W based negative NAO as the blocking moved over to Canada. The problem is the blocking can't move over to Canada in Feb because it never developed in the first place!

If he'd written 'ridging' would you accept it as being feasible. 'I'm looking at the ens means days 9 and 10 and wondering why you seem confused. Btw, matt possibly doesnt mean all but i reckon its likely more than 80% with the ridging ne just to our nw like the ens mean shows.

If we look at the overall pattern then I doubt we shall see a kind of halfway house in the pattern because its either going to be an E,ly or a W,ly. This is clearly shown on the GEFS 18Z ensembles with a mix of these W,lys or E,lys. Now based on the 18Z GEFS mean and looking at the 12Z ECM mean I reckon 60% of the ECM ensembles are showing an E,ly with the other 40% showing W,lys. Like I said earlier no chance all 51 are showing E/NE,lys.

Edited January 31, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[nick sussex]

If he'd written 'ridging' would you accept it as being feasible. 'I'm looking at the ens means days 9 and 10 and wondering why you seem confused. Btw, matt possibly doesnt mean all but i reckon its likely more than 80% with the ridging ne just to our nw like the ens mean shows.

If he meant ridge he should have said it and equally the inference from his tweet will be taken in here as some robust block when the truth of the matter is that a one off tweet simply stating the UK in an e/ne flow at day ten means what in terms of going forward.

Will it get flattened,whats the upstream pattern. That's the problem with these one line tweets,a bit more meat on the bones would be better.

[bradymk]

If he meant ridge he should have said it and equally the inference from his tweet will be taken in here as some robust block when the truth of the matter is that a one off tweet simply stating the UK in an e/ne flow at day ten means what in terms of going forward.

Will it get flattened,whats the upstream pattern. That's the problem with these one line tweets,a bit more meat on the bones would be better.

That is the only problem with twitter, you have a restricted word count on each tweet so he only has the choice to post one liners. However I am not sure about his tweet either but I am sure Matt will explain in more depth when he pops in here next.

[Cal]

Just been looking at the NAO forecasts and it looks as though this winter is going to finish around neutral which is quiet fitting because this has been a disappointment. Those in the NE of the US are moaning because they haven't seen one noreaster and this is because of the lack of a negative NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

When this winter is over it will be interesting to hear why the NAO has gone pearshaped along with the lack of a blocking over Greenland. If I remember correctly GP expected the core of blocking to move W over Winter with the NAO becoming a W based negative NAO as the blocking moved over to Canada. The problem is the blocking can't move over to Canada in Feb because it never developed in the first place!

If we look at the overall pattern then I doubt we shall see a kind of halfway house in the pattern because its either going to be an E,ly or a W,ly. This is clearly shown on the GEFS 18Z ensembles with a mix of these W,lys or E,lys. Now based on the 18Z GEFS mean and looking at the 12Z ECM mean I reckon 60% of the ECM ensembles are showing an E,ly with the other 40% showing W,lys. Like I said earlier no chance all 51 are showing E/NE,lys.

I think in fairness Dave it didn't happen because the P.V. over the Eastern side of Canada was simply too strong, the thermal gradient coupled with the Atlantic made things difficult to call, i do see a Greenie high but not till mid month onwards and it maybe little to late, the rebound effect from the SSW could well signal we have a nice warm spring during late Mar/Apr to go with.

[nick sussex]

That is the only problem with twitter, you have a restricted word count on each tweet so he only has the choice to post one liners. However I am not sure about his tweet either but I am sure Matt will explain in more depth when he pops in here next.

Yes that is a problem, one of the worst things to come out of the internet has been twitter! Just a way for self indulgent celebrities to let us know they had a bacon sandwich for lunch, I mean who cares!

The problem is these one line tweets take on a life of their own especially in here when they suggest something from the east/ne!

Edited February 1, 2013 by nick sussex