WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[Southender]

So what has stopped a proper GH forming this winter?

Has the big SSW not disrupted the PV as expected?

What does this mean for basing forecasts on events above the troposphere?

So many questions. With so few answers. As TEITS has said I would like to hear from those who predicted decent blocking this winter. As unless something very dramatic happens in the next few weeks, then the blocking and winter as a whole has been pretty average to be honest IMBY. It would be an interesting learning curve for me personally to hear some in depth reasoning as to why this has been the case.

[Bristawl Si]

Weather forecasting, either long term or regular posts on the ECM 32-dayer, have become an internet cottage industry, just like many other subjects/interests.

People believe what they read on the internet.

[Richie V]

I see any last shread of common sense in here has drained away this evening along with the greenland height rises!

Looking at the NH Jet profiles today I expect nothing less than the pattern been flattened out a bit at a time, run on run in the next 3 to 5 days.

Ric

[Gibby]

Hi guys. I know it's a bit late and not many people may still be awake but I do appreciate your comments of earlier this evening. I wish I had more time to join in with your excellent discussion between the 00zs and 12zs but life can be very time restrictive at times. However, if anybody has any suggestion good or bad in ways that I can improve or dumb down my reports to you even if you think I should not do them at all I am quite open to suggestions either through the forum or via the email link via my website. I guarantee I will reply to all emails providing they are constructive in their criticism and will endeavour to adjust the reports to make them a more pleasurable experience for all. Once more I thank you for those that have complimented me in the past, it is much appreciated and as long as you enjoy reading them I will continue to compile them.

[chris55]

Some wild ensembles from the gfs post 192, p10 retrogrades the trough from Europe through the Atlantic right back to Greenland! Overall though trends towards Atlantic energy diving south east in one form or another.

[davehsug]

Hi guys. I know it's a bit late and not many people may still be awake but I do appreciate your comments of earlier this evening. I wish I had more time to join in with your excellent discussion between the 00zs and 12zs but life can be very time restrictive at times. However, if anybody has any suggestion good or bad in ways that I can improve or dumb down my reports to you even if you think I should not do them at all I am quite open to suggestions either through the forum or via the email link via my website. I guarantee I will reply to all emails providing they are constructive in their criticism and will endeavour to adjust the reports to make them a more pleasurable experience for all. Once more I thank you for those that have complimented me in the past, it is much appreciated and as long as you enjoy reading them I will continue to compile them.

Please don't change Gibby. Your posts tell it exactly how it is. You look at the models & say what you see. No speculation. no ifs or buts. Leave the speculation & hopecasting to others.

[Richie V]

Hi guys. I know it's a bit late and not many people may still be awake but I do appreciate your comments of earlier this evening. I wish I had more time to join in with your excellent discussion between the 00zs and 12zs but life can be very time restrictive at times. However, if anybody has any suggestion good or bad in ways that I can improve or dumb down my reports to you even if you think I should not do them at all I am quite open to suggestions either through the forum or via the email link via my website. I guarantee I will reply to all emails providing they are constructive in their criticism and will endeavour to adjust the reports to make them a more pleasurable experience for all. Once more I thank you for those that have complimented me in the past, it is much appreciated and as long as you enjoy reading them I will continue to compile them.

Gibbs, you are doing fine pal, really enjoy reading your analysis on the outputs. Keeps it real to the outlook with a no BS approach.

[chris55]

I see any last shread of common sense in here has drained away this evening along with the greenland height rises!

Looking at the NH Jet profiles today I expect nothing less than the pattern been flattened out a bit at a time, run on run in the next 3 to 5 days.

Ric

A flattening of the pattern would suggest less cold air for the UK, GEFS 18z are actually trending the other way tonight with a cluster around the 9-11th dipping that bit colder.

[Bonjangle]

Hi guys. I know it's a bit late and not many people may still be awake but I do appreciate your comments of earlier this evening. I wish I had more time to join in with your excellent discussion between the 00zs and 12zs but life can be very time restrictive at times. However, if anybody has any suggestion good or bad in ways that I can improve or dumb down my reports to you even if you think I should not do them at all I am quite open to suggestions either through the forum or via the email link via my website. I guarantee I will reply to all emails providing they are constructive in their criticism and will endeavour to adjust the reports to make them a more pleasurable experience for all. Once more I thank you for those that have complimented me in the past, it is much appreciated and as long as you enjoy reading them I will continue to compile them.

Keep them up Sir Gibby i for one and alot of peeps look forward to your post with pleasure , You have given thousands on here great output and people learning the weather valued information ... me for one am saying like more Keep them coming ..AQSM

[legritter]

HI GIBBY cary on doing what you do best and thanks for your time and effort .just goes to show not alot as changed over the years in looking ahead ,what appears in the charts in the morning can be gone by evening . and cold spells can arrive out of the blue .but not quite so many surprises now adays , as for current modells it could get interesting ,rain just arrived from our approaching low ,its a shame we havent got cold air well and truly in place .

[gottolovethisweather]

Going to bed now, but one last request please PM Gibby confirming your love or hate for his posts.

Stick with the model output discussion in here, as it is so much easier to read when we remain to the topic in question.

My interpretation FWIW, is for a potential game-changer come next weekend, with next week itself throwing up a few surprises for some along the way.

Two days ago now I posted this in one of the regionals and I don't think much has changed to alter my mind.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579482

Edited February 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[syed2878]

@gibby. Y fix it when it's not broken, u should carry on with the reports for some1 like my self its the only way of making sence of the models.

[summer blizzard]

0z GFS looks another dry, sunny and chilly run.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs is still learning from the ukmo i hope poor run 00z this morning.

[Blizzardof82]

Hi guys. I know it's a bit late and not many people may still be awake but I do appreciate your comments of earlier this evening. I wish I had more time to join in with your excellent discussion between the 00zs and 12zs but life can be very time restrictive at times. However, if anybody has any suggestion good or bad in ways that I can improve or dumb down my reports to you even if you think I should not do them at all I am quite open to suggestions either through the forum or via the email link via my website. I guarantee I will reply to all emails providing they are constructive in their criticism and will endeavour to adjust the reports to make them a more pleasurable experience for all. Once more I thank you for those that have complimented me in the past, it is much appreciated and as long as you enjoy reading them I will continue to compile them.

Keep up the good work Gibby, as a novice your analisis is one of the 1st I look for!

Ecm and Meto 00Z both look the same to me at T144 as a novice would I be correct with that statement?

Edited February 1, 2013 by Blizzardof82

[That ECM]

Looking at all 3 upto t144 and they are similar. It is at this point when ECM and GFS go in different directions. They model the low over Canada differently. ECM has it travelling NE allowing the ridge to have more influence. GFS showing it haveing more influence and flattening the ridge. UKMO stopping at t144 so not able to judge. 48 hours and we should know what is going to happen with that energy which has such an impact further down the line.

ECM will please coldies this morning. GFS not so. UKMO is full of potential.

Edited February 1, 2013 by That ECM

[cooling climate]

Finally the ECM at t216 showing much better heights to the north/northeast with a very cold

east/northeasterly feed developing. The GFS ops run does not agree for now but I would

put much more faith in the Euro model than the GFS especially after the last cold spell.

Just seen the t240 chart and looks very snowy for many although you can not put to much

stock in it at that range. Very pleased this morning.

[mountain shadow]

ECM full off eastern promise. Holds back the Atlantic with an undercutting low and heights rising to the North.

The GFS as ever flattens the pattern.

[itsnowjoke]

Some more learned posters could give you a far better answer than me, however to get a battleground you would generally need a low pressure from the west hitting embedded cold air over the UK. This chart shows a high moving in so no battleground!

Thanks for the reply not great at reading charts.

[Coast]

Wouldn't normally consider an ESTOFEX forecast for inclusion here, but they had some interesting comments in their latest output:

The polar vortex remains somewhat disturbed with roughly 20 K temperature anomalies still present at 30 hPa. However, some gradual re-organization of the vortex is anticipated with AO ensemble members tightly clustered although this strengthening might be only on a temporal basis. However, despite those trends in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, the European weather remains influenced by an healthy looking branch of the split polar vortex, which moves north towards the Greenland Sea. This pattern is reflected in the maps of the 500 hPa height anomalies, which show a strong negative signal south of Iceland and a NE-ward building positive anomaly over far SW Europe.

http://www.estofex.org/

[SMU]

Morning-

no change today - ( well a small one by the GFS but not enough )

the GFS still flat at 192- but not as flat as before

ECM is there at 192 with a near perfect wedge as pointed out yesterday- when I linked to that ensemble

S

[winterof79]

GFS has everything a few hundred miles further east at 144z..it is on its own at present

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020100/gfsnh-0-144.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013020100/gemnh-0-144.png?00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020100/ECH1-144.GIF?01-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013020100/UN144-21.GIF?01-06

PV only flirting with western side of Greenland on UKMO.I feel a decent METO update coming on today.

[MR EXTREMES]

Wouldn't normally consider an ESTOFEX forecast for inclusion here, but they had some interesting comments in their latest output:

http://www.estofex.org/

well if im reading this right then this has p*ssed on any coldies fireworks although split vortex but restrengthening which was always going to happen but the heights to sw europe and low heights south of iceland if this is right then its possible the gfs could be right.

[Frosty.]

Welcome to frozen snowfest britain..enjoy your stay

I think the Ecm is handling the evolving pattern much better than the woeful gfs.

[MR EXTREMES]

well if im reading this right then this has p*ssed on any coldies fireworks although split vortex but restrengthening which was always going to happen but the heights to sw europe and low heights south of iceland if this is right then its possible the gfs could be right.

and if this turns out correct then could this be a re look at the strats effect to be honest although we have had a cold spell its not really be the effect seen in 09/10 so clearly something has stopped the full effect.