WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[Panayiotis]

An interesting tweet from Matt Hugo!!

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Jeez, no consistency but all 51 EC ENS members show a block developing to the NW of the UK by Sat 9th/Sun 10th and bring in an E/NE'ly flow.

[Yarmy]

An interesting tweet from Matt Hugo!!

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Jeez, no consistency but all 51 EC ENS members show a block developing to the NW of the UK by Sat 9th/Sun 10th and bring in an E/NE'ly flow.

Confused. Isn't all 51 members showing the same thing the very definition of consistency?

[MR EXTREMES]

An interesting tweet from Matt Hugo!!

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Jeez, no consistency but all 51 EC ENS members show a block developing to the NW of the UK by Sat 9th/Sun 10th and bring in an E/NE'ly flow.

thats intresting i did say a ne flow could well set in later in the model runs still one to watch but im more thing iceland scandi.

come on GP whats your thoughts (; i notice the gfs coming out and and short cold shot from the northeast ish.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

but didnt i read on here that all 51 ECMWF ens showed a beasterly around mid Dec? all 51 ens wrong!

For what its worth I recall all but around 10 showed a beasterly at that time. Things will change but my glass is always half full.

[bluearmy]

sometimes its all very odd in here. naefs has now caught up with the ecm ens into the days 7/10 range, strengthening the sceuro trough. the path to the ridge pushing ne is so obvious, i wonder why some cant see it. the only questions to be answered are

i) how deep can the euro trough get - currently it looks to fill quite quickly which means we wont advect any deep cold far enough west to encompass the uk

ii) how far ne can the atlantic ridge go before it gets flattened by the jet. currently, it looks quite fragile but if matt sees all ecm ens members pushing it ne at the same timeframe, you'd hope that it will be strong enough to link up with the russian heights or at least establish a wedge of heights to our north/northeast. ideally we could then see some energy undercut into europe as the atlantic troughing disrupts.

Edited January 31, 2013 by bluearmy

[MR EXTREMES]

pub run t86 not bad

[bluearmy]

bound to change but the T120 FAX is full of potential. a wave runs along the channel with the cold air already across the whole uk. to the north of scotland, an occlusion heads in and in the nw flow for day 6, there are troughs galore.

[Tamara]

ECM extended, good clustering to around day 12, some milder options beyond but also some spikes down to -10, also very snowy just to our east.

It will be interesting to view those over the next couple of days for further trends. One of those situations we might be arriving at in the last few weeks of this winter season where a definitive February outlook type of crossroads looks to be coming into view.

This might mark the difference between maybe a couple of cold northerlies without the cold backing further south and west to keep another cold spell going, or, with increasing amplification of the jet stream (as, encouragingly, seems to be happening atm in the further outlook period to support the more popular hoped for option) something more sustained with the atlantic shut down more than we have seen in terms of the branches of energy coming out of Canada and Greenland into the atlantic and downstream to the UK. This process has been putting pressure, as we have seen this season, on cold air advection trying to come out of the pole to our own mid latitude, even though we saw another respectable cold spell in January once again to follow the most recent years trend of the main winter month turning around what has proven to be a cyclical cold drought. .

[MR EXTREMES]

bound to change but the T120 FAX is full of potential. a wave runs along the channel with the cold air already across the whole uk. to the north of scotland, an occlusion heads in and in the nw flow for day 6, there are troughs galore.

yes could be intresting

scotland and some western areas could get a right battering.

[Panayiotis]

Again the PV is considerably weaker on this run at 102hrs, we have seen this weakening of the PV on all of the runs today,also to note are heights over Greenland have strenghtened compared to the 12z......

[MR EXTREMES]

t114 pretty strong north westerlies ridge pushing up to east coast of greenland will it make it.

Edited January 31, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Ice Day]

Nice chart at 120. The high's a little further north and west compared to the 12z (18z on the left)

Edited January 31, 2013 by Ice Day

[Panayiotis]

yes could be intresting

scotland and some western areas could get a right battering.

Those dont look like the updated Fax charts, use this meteociel.fr - modèle UKMO pour la France, resolution 1.25 degré

[MR EXTREMES]

nope its sinking again

sorry yes updated fax t120

looks brillant

Edited January 31, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Tim Bland]

Widespread precip tues night, a slight warm sector though http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=126&code=0&mode=2

[syed2878]

@snow is falling. Do u have any charts to showing that we heading for a big frese? Thank u.

[MR EXTREMES]

heights ridge up to eastern greenland failed but deep trough to out east gives us this....

[MR EXTREMES]

its by far not the worst run from the gfs cold air flooding all over the place apart from the mid alantic.

[Ice Day]

Each frame is just a small upgrade compared to the equivalent on the 12z. Just a minor shift west, but it could maybe result in something quite different in the end. This is at 156, -6 uppers all over, -8 in Scotland

[weather_it_will]

@snow is falling. Do u have any charts to showing that we heading for a big frese? Thank u.

No guarantee of any big freeze, but heights over Greenland still there at day 7, and LP is pushed back west by 100 miles or so on this run so far.

It is also still unknown if any strat warming will have effect on this period of weather.

In summary, the cold is sustained for longer on this run,but as always too many things could change

[itsnowjoke]

Each frame is just a small upgrade compared to the equivalent on the 12z. Just a minor shift west, but it could maybe result in something quite different in the end. This is at 156, -6 uppers all over, -8 in Scotland

quite a nice chart how possible is the 1st and can i ask is this setup mild versus cold battle?

[MR EXTREMES]

heights in the alantic looking like being flattened as we head into the later run of the gfs but another chilly period before it does so.

hope i win my feb cet lol.

[Cheshire Freeze]

heights in the alantic looking like being flattened as we head into the later run of the gfs but another chilly period before it does so.

hope i win my feb cet lol.

Yep rather underwhelming runs today in all honesty....most of all the GFS which continues with its suggestion of the high toppling and letting Atlantic based weather back in.

[SMU]

The 18z goes on its merry way, to far east to flat- typical standard fare for the GFS...

S

[nick sussex]

An interesting tweet from Matt Hugo!!

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

Jeez, no consistency but all 51 EC ENS members show a block developing to the NW of the UK by Sat 9th/Sun 10th and bring in an E/NE'ly flow.

I must be missing something here because the ECM ensemble mean at day 10 shows low heights to the nw of the UK. The mean is very close to the operational run so its impossible to have that level of support for something which goes completely against the mean.

Perhaps Matt H meant something else but its simply impossible for all the ECM ensemble members to support a block to the nw. Sorry to spoil the party but I think Matts been on the brandy or has access to the netweather happy ensembles!lol