Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards

[bradymk]

A very cold 216 chart from ECM. Even more so over Central Europe with low thickness and very light winds with v cold uppers. Expect some cold minima from that chart.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wedge of high pressure to the north at 192hrs on the ECM should force that low SE (however it has weakened compared to the 0z)...

In the style of Mr Burns: 'excellent'

[Snowman.]

A very cold 216 chart from ECM. Even more so over Central Europe with low thickness and very light winds with v cold uppers. Expect some cold minima from that chart.

Yes, very much so this could get interesting...

Wedge of high pressure to the north at 192hrs on the ECM also SW of the low (to the SE of Greenland) is another low with a perfect orientation to ridge the Azores north combining these that should force the low SE (however it has weakened compared to the 0z) ...

January told us that 1040mb high pressure cells isn't needed.

wow

Jaw dropping FI with the Azores high giving the 'wedge' a helping hand.

Edited February 1, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Panayiotis]

Yes it has and we get this awesome chart; Scandi high and NE wind, this is not over yet!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, very much so this could get interesting...

January told us that 1040mb high pressure cells isn't needed.

wow

Jaw dropping FI.

Indeed, could be some very cold De Bilt ensembles later

Quick, where's Steve

Edited February 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[bradymk]

Ok so ECM is a great run with the euro trough expanding and moving westwards at 240 bring the low thickness and v cold uppers to eastern side of the UK. Heights building to the E and NE of the trough. V cold but important set of EC ENS coming up.

[nick sussex]

I think realistically the ECM manages to get the best out of a still limpet PV, at 240hrs it looks like there maybe another attempt at developing a ridge to the ne.

Overall a very good ECM run but still too far out to pin our hopes on. Its all very finely balanced and our chances rest on how far east the PV gets.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well well well , are we in the brink of another significant cold spell?

[Mini tiger]

Very cold over Europe

Light winds

Well well well , are we in the brink of another significant cold spell?

I think Glacial Point (GP) forecast another very cold spell to occur at short notice around the end of the first

week of February, so not long to go. Changes can happen suddenly. I have read his post over a long time. So have

faith everyone \

X

[TEITS]

Well well well , are we in the brink of another significant cold spell?

Cold spell yes, significant? well the jury is still out in my opinion.

Still an improvement from the 12Zs especially the GFS compared to the 0Z/06Z. Chance of snowfall from sliding LP after the N,ly but for me personally I would still like to see a shift W of the PV.

Sorry my post is brief but im scheduled to play COD black ops 2 tonight. Love shooting those yanks online even more than following the models.

[nick sussex]

Well well well , are we in the brink of another significant cold spell?

We'll know in about 3 days! By that time the crucial part of the output will be in the more reliable timeframe. But if people want a chance of ice days then the ECM has to verify.

There looks like a better cold pool developing to the east and if the ECM ensembles have some support for the trend then we should see some members dropping well into negative territory for De Bilt.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think Glacial Point (GP) forecast another very cold spell to occur at short notice around the end of the first

week of February, so not long to go. Changes can happen suddenly. I have read his post over a long time. So have

faith everyone \

X

Erm sorry but that's not strictly true, not to drag old history up so il just put it simply. The downwelling from the SSW has not really come into fruition , and it seems there has been other riding factors that's muted significant northern blocking .

The cold was due back with evengance on the 28th, now we are looking toward the 10th .

Cold spell yes, significant? well the jury is still out in my opinion.

Still an improvement from the 12Zs especially the GFS compared to the 0Z/06Z. Chance of snowfall from sliding LP after the N,ly but for me personally I would still like to see a shift W of the PV.

Sorry my post is brief but im scheduled to play COD black ops 2 tonight. Love shooting those yanks online even more than following the models.

I think we all would like to see a westward shift in the PV, but I'm worm out saying it now so Iv accepted that we will have no greeny high this season , something that was forecast to dominate.

[Hotspur62]

Just when things seem to be edging away from a potential cold spell(mainly GFS granted),ECM brings it back into play.What a rollercoaster these models are giving us!!From memory,didn't GP say 10th Feb was about the time we could have another cold spell(Think it was him but apologies if i have got that wrong!).Hope he is right,but still wish Vortex would move further Westwards as that would give me more confidence.

Incidentally,I think Brett Anderson off Accuweather seems to think that Vortex will be moving Westwards towards Asia from bout 11th Feb(Sorry off topic) which might be good news for us in UK!!Keeping everything crossed as still think it is too close to call and will go down to wire me thinks.

[legritter]

YES everyone have faith this is what we wanted tonight ,something to chear up everyone ,if its out there we will get it but a word of caution lets see some good runs over the weekend before some of us get carried away .i will certainly be tuning into tonights ECM ens etc i dont usually take great notice but i might give it a go .some good cold air setting up to our east which always helps if we get a system near us pulling in winds from the east or s/east ,lower dew points etc .nice to see some heigher pressure modelled to our far north and north east ,although its in the future its still being modelled so modells are picking this up from somewhere ,we could be on the edge so im off to docs for a top up of prozack and a packet of straws cheers all ,

[Gibby]

Good evening folks. Thank you for all the earlier complimentary posts with reference to these twice daily reports. It's been an overwhelming verdict to maintain these reports in their present format and to keep them coming at twice daily intervals following the 00zs and 12zs. So with that in mind here's tonight's view of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Friday February 1st 2013.

All models show a developing cold Northerly flow over the UK for the next 24 hours or so. By Sunday the flow will back West as a complex trough structure moves SE over the UK with rain and milder conditions for all on Sunday. Early next week shows Low pressure drifting ESE to the North of Scotland then SE over the North Sea bringing strong and increasingly cold WNW, NW and eventually North winds across the UK by midweek. Rain and sleet showers on Monday will turn increasingly to sleet and snow even in the South as we move towards midweek with frost at night but some good sunny spells too.

GFS then brings a disturbance SE across the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow in places before less cold air staggers its way across the UK from the West with rain at times. FI tonight shows the pattern of High pressure to the SW and Low to the North and NE continuing with winds often strong from a West or just North of West quarter with rain or showers at times. In SW areas temperatures will never be far from normal while colder outbreaks are more likely to occur towards more Northern and Northeastern areas when wintry showers become prevalent at times.

The GFS Ensembles show a rather cold spell coming early next week. However, it is not shown to last long before uppers increase to close to normal values for early February with an increasing incidence of rain at times as Atlantic Low pressures moving in from the West become more dominant.

The Jet Stream shows the usual pattern for Winter over the Northern hemisphere of the flow ridging over the Atlantic North of the Azores High and returning SE over the UK and Europe, a pattern looking like that it may not change much in the coming week or so.

UKMO for midday on Thursday shows a filling complex Low pressure area over Denmark to Eastern Europe with a slackening NNW airflow over the UK. There will be a continuation of wintry showers, though less pronounced and widespread than previous days.

ECM too shows a slackening Northerly flow with wintry showers over the UK next Thursday with Low pressure filling over Europe. the showers would be most prolific over Northern and Eastern coastal counties along with the Cheshire Gap and the SW peninsula also vulnerable. Later in its run the weather remains cold over the UK with winds still gently blowing down from the NW along with disrupting Low pressure sliding SE over the West of the UK bringing the risk of rain, sleet and snow to end the weekend.

In Summary tonight there is good agreement on a blast from the North next week but what's undecided is how long it lasts and will there be any snowfall. Well if GFS is to be believed then not long and not much would be the answers to those questions as it shows the Atlantic winning back control by the end of next week, supported by its ensembles. On the other hand ECM not unlike this morning maintains the cold component to the Northerly flow sticking around rather longer with snow showers possible on most days from midweek and the chance of something more generally wintry developing on slider lows next weekend. Of particular note from my perspective is the rise of pressure taking place over Northern Scandinavia at the end of the ECM run.

[cooling climate]

Just got back in and I see MAYBE I was right to still be optimistic. A very good looking UKMO

much better 12z GFS (trending in the right direction) and a very good ECM with more to offer

beyond t240,

[Panayiotis]

Could anyone give me the link for the ECM ensembles and the times they come out?

Thanks.

[phil nw.]

I think realistically the ECM manages to get the best out of a still limpet PV, at 240hrs it looks like there maybe another attempt at developing a ridge to the ne.

Overall a very good ECM run but still too far out to pin our hopes on. Its all very finely balanced and our chances rest on how far east the PV gets.

Yes the later frames show how close to an Easterly it is Nick.

A cut-off Euro trough with weak heights over the top was showing in the later anomaly means a couple of days ago but the reluctance of the Canadian vortex to shift seems to have scuppered that for now.

This Easterly later on cannot be discounted though with the overall pattern as finely balanced as it is.

A little less energy from the Greenland area would still make this possible.A Euro trough set adrift would leave a window for those heights to develop to the NE.

[J10]

Full Ski blog now out.

http://forum.netweat...-february-2013/

Latest Ski Blog now out and conditions set to improve over the weekend with colder temps and further snow likely, also set to turn very cold by aorund mid next week.

[Roger J Smith]

This looks exceptionally promising for severe cold by the middle third of February.

The dive-bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK and in itself is a major severe weather event, but after a couple of days it will reach a position over central Europe that will allow a retrograde cycle just showing signs of life now to develop gradually and feed the coldest Siberian air west across northern Russia into Scandinavia.

I think there will be near-record cold in mid-February and that means daily means in the -5 to -10 C range, so a very severe frost and with a northeast flow there may be heavy snowfalls even without any organized low pressure, but this winter also has shown a tendency to storminess so I have the feeling once this very cold air starts moving in, there could be epic snowfalls with it.

The eastern Canadian vortex from my research can be expected to last about a week then start to drift northwest to become another part of the hemispheric retrograde cycle. Heights will then build over central-eastern North America and they could go from the current cold pattern to very mild in about ten days to two weeks.

I think it's coming anyway, and this storm on Tuesday is the pattern changer much as there was a severe windstorm around 1 Feb 1969 although that was more of a straight northerly blast. But the temperature signal from very mild to very cold is similar, and don't forget that also happened (a bit earlier in late January) in 1947.

[winterof79]

Could anyone give me the link for the ECM ensembles and the times they come out?

Thanks.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html 8.30 ish

[bluearmy]

excellent ecm op continuity. Lets hope the same cannot be said of the ens later!

[Ian Brown]

I think realistically the ECM manages to get the best out of a still limpet PV, at 240hrs it looks like there maybe another attempt at developing a ridge to the ne.

Overall a very good ECM run but still too far out to pin our hopes on. Its all very finely balanced and our chances rest on how far east the PV gets.

Yes, it's high stakes as if the jet extends any further East it's partner in crime the Azores High edges over us, if it pulls back then heights can rise to the North and there a good chance of an easterly. Fine margins that cannot be determined by the NWP at this range.

Edited February 1, 2013 by Ian Brown

[winterof79]

This looks exceptionally promising for severe cold by the middle third of February.

The dive-bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK and in itself is a major severe weather event, but after a couple of days it will reach a position over central Europe that will allow a retrograde cycle just showing signs of life now to develop gradually and feed the coldest Siberian air west across northern Russia into Scandinavia.

I think there will be near-record cold in mid-February and that means daily means in the -5 to -10 C range, so a very severe frost and with a northeast flow there may be heavy snowfalls even without any organized low pressure, but this winter also has shown a tendency to storminess so I have the feeling once this very cold air starts moving in, there could be epic snowfalls with it.

The eastern Canadian vortex from my research can be expected to last about a week then start to drift northwest to become another part of the hemispheric retrograde cycle. Heights will then build over central-eastern North America and they could go from the current cold pattern to very mild in about ten days to two weeks.

I think it's coming anyway, and this storm on Tuesday is the pattern changer much as there was a severe windstorm around 1 Feb 1969 although that was more of a straight northerly blast. But the temperature signal from very mild to very cold is similar, and don't forget that also happened (a bit earlier in late January) in 1947.

Quite superb to pattern match the early Feb 69 and very similar

[That ECM]

This looks exceptionally promising for severe cold by the middle third of February.

The dive-bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK and in itself is a major severe weather event, but after a couple of days it will reach a position over central Europe that will allow a retrograde cycle just showing signs of life now to develop gradually and feed the coldest Siberian air west across northern Russia into Scandinavia.

I think there will be near-record cold in mid-February and that means daily means in the -5 to -10 C range, so a very severe frost and with a northeast flow there may be heavy snowfalls even without any organized low pressure, but this winter also has shown a tendency to storminess so I have the feeling once this very cold air starts moving in, there could be epic snowfalls with it.

The eastern Canadian vortex from my research can be expected to last about a week then start to drift northwest to become another part of the hemispheric retrograde cycle. Heights will then build over central-eastern North America and they could go from the current cold pattern to very mild in about ten days to two weeks.

I think it's coming anyway, and this storm on Tuesday is the pattern changer much as there was a severe windstorm around 1 Feb 1969 although that was more of a straight northerly blast. But the temperature signal from very mild to very cold is similar, and don't forget that also happened (a bit earlier in late January) in 1947.

If Carlsberg did forecasts! That's called having ago SI. Good luck and a great read.