winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

slightly better ridging to our north and northeast from ukmo

plenty of low heights into europe with sliders possible.

Edited February 7, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Summer Sun]

Looking like an upgrade for the south so far for the snow and a downgrade for the north

[goosey007]

Looking like a backtrack from GFS with rain and sleet quickly following on from the leading edge snow

lol post mondays mornings ppn chart i dare you....your cluthing at straws gav!!

Ahh i see you have Well done

Edited February 7, 2013 by goosey007

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looks very wet across the south sun/mon on 12z gfs.

[MR EXTREMES]

Looking like an upgrade for the south so far for the snow and a downgrade for the north

sorry better for northern england midlands wales easter areas upgrade in all aspects.

[Barry12]

Early Monday morning will be all snow for the North and probably wet snow for the south, as expected it's an upgrade for the snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

Looks very wet across the south sun/mon on 12z gfs.

as it pulls south there be snow.

and nice little ridge over iceland could this be a january re run.

Edited February 7, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[weather eater]

No point getting over zealous about where or whether snow will fall in particular areas at this stage, we are still going to see more corrections over the next couple of days, besides If the low gets much further west it’s going to miss us all together at this rate (this is a jest before anyone starts correcting me).

Edited February 7, 2013 by weather eater

[Summer Sun]

lol post mondays mornings ppn chart i dare you....your cluthing at straws gav !!

This what you are refering to ?

[Dexter29]

lol post mondays mornings ppn chart i dare you....your cluthing at straws gav !!

Happens on every potential snow event!

Wind up merchants doing there best to nic pic.

The 12z is not a downgrade and if anything increases snow chances From late Sunday afternoon.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

im confused by 12zgfs the temps look to be above zero sunday night but the chart gavin posted is pink? hmmm.

[dickie1965]

Looks very wet across the south sun/mon on 12z gfs.

I would say that things are no clearer with exact positioning of the low. One thing for sure is that there will be plenty of precipitaion. Depending on where you live who knows what it will be. We might have a clue within 12 hours of the event !

Edited February 7, 2013 by dickie1965

[Cheshire Freeze]

Snowy trough pushing WSW at 96 hours. Strong signal there on this run.

[Sussex Jules]

Looks very wet across the south sun/mon on 12z gfs.

I am trying to learn how to read the charts can you post up some charts to show this please.

[SMU]

A Considerable upgrade from the GFS over the 06z, however I would never use the 06Z as guidence as its poor.

Whats key for the east / SE & NE is how deep & fast the initial WAA is ahead of the front-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020712/gfs-0-54.png?12

this is depicted better here-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020712/gfs-6-60.png?12

The more acute the angle the low can stay at is also good,- still time for further upgrades & corrections - eagerly awaiting the UKMO & the overall model medium term outlook-

remember now this pattern is done & dusted we look to 144-192 to see the next developing pattern- where maybe the GFS can fair better.....

S

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t96 looking good for an easterly with snow right down the eastern side of the UK

[MR EXTREMES]

bingo i bank the ukmo thanks better for more prolonged cold spell nice ridge to the north not a bad run.

[Barry12]

I am trying to learn how to read the charts can you post up some charts to show this please.

Don't worry, any rain will turn to snow

[WestSussexSnow]

First post on the MOD thread. As a newbie/lurker for a while, I have to say that for new followers, they have got a cat in hell's chance of learning if its "a downgrade for Sun/Mon"...followed by post saying "an upgrade for Sun/Mon".

For learners like me please can posts be backed up with charts or explanations to these type of comments or posts in general.

Sorry if off topic!

[Mucka]

GFS getting to work with the shortwave activity now we are getting closer it is getting very interesting to see how they evolve.

Here the one over moving North into Scandinavia plays spoiler and helper in that it splits the high to our NE having it retreat East but also acts as a wedge for the Western segment meaning it can not be forced East by the second shortwave, Southwest of Greenland which gets blended with the next low. It then moves West and becomes a nuisance again.

A very complex picture emerging so don't expect it to be resolved until inside T72

Edited February 7, 2013 by Mucka

[IDO]

Very marginal Sunday and Monday on this run for the SE. The dew points in Kent never go negative those two days, eg:

Many other areas north M4 should be ok, DP wise.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well the gem did this yesterday aswell and ukmo and ecmwf followed so i fully expect to see the ukmo amd ecmwf to backdown from the 850hpa temps it was showing this morning for satirday and sunday!!a push east!!

Just because it happened on one occasion it means nothing for future reference I'm afraid .

If Man utd got beat by QPR on a one off game would that mean that Reading who is higher than QPR are going to beat UTD also ?!!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Very marginal Sunday and Monday on this run for the SE. The dew points in Kent never go negative those two days, eg:

Many other areas north M4 should be ok, DP wise.

hmmm yep doesnt look great for quite a large part of the SE and as far north as SE midlands!!

[Weathizard]

Looking good for central england and Northern England/Scotland, lots of rain probably down here! Will be fantastic to see a big snow event somewhere in the UK, potentially could be the biggest of winter.

Still not resolved yet but things looking very good for these areas.

[SMU]

UKMO 60 + 72

PPN -

60 landing at midnight Sun

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U60-594.GIF?07-16

72 getting heavier overnight into sunday

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-594.GIF?07-16

temps

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF?07-16

verdict-- UKMO raw- heavy snow for Cambridgeshire / East midlands ETC- moving back south.

S