winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[lord stratus]

Best you don't...

What's yours called?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm at 72h has the shortwave just a midge further west than gfs 12z which means the -5line is slightly further west but we aree talking microscale here so pretty goodagreement reeally.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm beginning to think that the UK is on the cusp of a major cold outbreak.

This is the ukmo 36hrs from now

This is what happens at t72

Notice the undercut , now at t36 you wouldn't of necessarily saw this coming would you ?

Now look at t120

Now this is the predicted chart at t144

Even At this range , the Atlantic has know chance against this block ,even in this last chart we are so close to a penetrating easterly , I'm certain any energy from the Atlantic will go under the block rather than sinking it , keeping this Azores high in its place .

All I'm seeing is cold easterly winds to be honest now and il put my wages on it ! Any chart showing a rampant northerly jet to be looked at with EXTREME caution .

Really hope that last chart comes off, it will be a repeat of 2009 Feb with classic Thames Streamers from Southend-On-Sea/N Kent all the way to Southampton and Portsmouth ! It is looking likely now that we will see another big snow event.

[Argyle1980]

Looking at those maybe our Dutch friend is on to something!

i think so to :-)

[Snowy Shower]

T72 FAX out quite early and places the shortwave centre over cornwall. pretty much where gem has it

T72 FAX out quite early and places the shortwave centre over cornwall. pretty much where gem has it

So what does this mean exactly? Thanks :-)

[Ian Brown]

I'm beginning to think that the UK is on the cusp of a major cold outbreak.

This is the ukmo 36hrs from now

This is what happens at t72

Notice the undercut , now at t36 you wouldn't of necessarily saw this coming would you ?

Now look at t120

Now this is the predicted chart at t144

Even At this range , the Atlantic has know chance against this block ,even in this last chart we are so close to a penetrating easterly , I'm certain any energy from the Atlantic will go under the block rather than sinking it , keeping this Azores high in its place .

All I'm seeing is cold easterly winds to be honest now and il put my wages on it ! Any chart showing a rampant northerly jet to be looked at with EXTREME caution .

We are nowhere near a penetrating easterly, the energy has gone over the top of the High and it was just be a matter time before the High sunk or retreated East.

[shaky]

Well it comes as no surprise to see the ecmwf has crashed on meteociel!!only up to 24 hours ryt now!!

[Pixel]

T72 FAX out quite early and places the shortwave centre over cornwall. pretty much where gem has it

i think you may have forgotten to post the image of that 'shortwave;

[lord stratus]

i no grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr im getting cramp in my finger refresh refresh refresh lol

Cracking easterly on ECM.

[SMU]

Still 3 days away but from the ECM perspective nowt in the way of snow south & west of birmingon over 72 + 96.

S

[bluearmy]

i think you may have forgotten to post the image of that 'shortwave;

no i havent. its over cornwall. i can use my imagination as to where cornwall is. the ecm at the same time is over cardigan bay .

[Barking_Mad]

Whilst the model is being fixed, what influence if any can be drawn from the massive north easter which is due to drop 30+cms of snow over ne USA and Canada likely to have?

[Ian Brown]

T120 and similar to the GFS, with the Atlantic edging back in by T144 I think.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

yep ecm further north with the track and areas south of birmingham look very wet,will change though hopefully!

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

better in the 120 zone, with it marginal better positioning of the shortwave west of norway at -

S

[Derecho]

We are nowhere near a penetrating easterly, the energy has gone over the top of the High and it was just be a matter time before the High sunk or retreated East.

- ' It was just a matter of time before the high sunk or retreated east'. Past tense is inappropiate as this hasn't happened yet

- Penetrating Easterly? Don't think anyone is thinking that will happen in the reliable timeframe.

At least post some charts and justification for your thoughts Ian rather then just a quick sentence.

What happens after this low slides through is hugely uncertain, latest fax places the low further west so this will mean the Azores high will ridge a bit further north. It may not even connect to the Scandi high, it may be a more likely option but still an uncertain one.

Also GFS has constantly been showing a Greenland high and a marked - AO for several runs so something is brewing.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[georgiedre]

Equivalent temp plot for Sunday eve-- put a line between say, Norwich and Liverpool and it's all snow for that line northwards. Basically, much of the E Midlands, parts of the W Midlands/E Anglia and NW England, as well as all of NE England and southern Scotland, though the strongest precip should be across the midlands. Expect significant accumulations across the peak district and parts of the pennines.

Similar point of view with the wet bulb temps- looking at a very snowy image across NW England (esp high ground) and much of Yorks/Pennines.. sleet, rain and snow for the Midlands and East Anglia.

Rolling that forward to Monday morning- heavy snow for much of East Anglia, the Midlands and SE England, with heavy rain, sleet and snow in the SW (heavy snow on high ground in the midlands and south/south-west). A strong easterly develops- the advection of cold air on top the low is marked and substantial as we move through Monday-

A day of first heavy snow for southern areas, turning into one with heavy snow showers moving in from the E and NE.

Looks like a very eventful couple of days, with some strong winds and heavy precip moving through, before colder air is introduced from the east.

Wheres wales ireland and scotland?

Edited February 7, 2013 by georgiedre

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

i disagree with ian brown i think ecm actually looks slightly better at 120h,still,as i said,plenty of time for changes!

[bluearmy]

Still 3 days away but from the ECM perspective nowt in the way of snow south & west of birmingon over 72 + 96.

S

the shape of the depression is different to the 00z run steve (more rounded) - presumably that brings the less cold air further east. the fax looks much more eliptical. guess we get exeters view on the T96 fax unless they issue a correction to the T72.

[SMU]

T120 and similar to the GFS, with the Atlantic edging back in by T144 I think.

I wouldnt be too sure of that Ian- GFS shortwave over the coast of norway at 120 closer to iceland-

S

[PolarWarsaw]

Snow threat moves north on the ECM, leaving Birmingham south rainy and not snowy. Intriguing to see how this plays out.

[SMU]

the shape of the depression is different to the 00z run steve (more rounded) - presumably that brings the less cold air further east. the fax looks much more eliptical. guess we get exeters view on the T96 fax unless they issue a correction to the T72.

yep sh*t shape & to deep. no good for us.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

We are nowhere near a penetrating easterly, the energy has gone over the top of the High and it was just be a matter time before the High sunk or retreated East.

Same old story Ian , you've been saying the Atlantic is coming in for ages,.

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Ian im afraid your atlantic is busted - with significant trough disruption @144

S

[Geordiesnow]

yep sh*t shape & to deep. no good for us.

Who is "us"?

Interesting output, still expect some marginal changes with this low pressure system but all the models most certainly are speaking on the same wavelength and there is certainly the risk of some snowfall at the end of this weekend and into next week.