winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Ian Brown]

yep sh*t shape & to deep. no good for us.

I don't think IMBY posts should be allowed in the MO thread.

Anyway :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Atlantic edging in but not much strength in the jet to the NW, so may only be temporary if at all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anyway, mine is only upto +24, meteociel been crap lately

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I don't think IMBY posts should be allowed in the MO thread.

Anyway :

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

Atlantic edging in but not much strength in the jet to the NW, so may only be temporary if at all.

Yes any breakdown if it does come doesnt look that significant ian,fine lines though and changes are sure to come.

On a side note Feb is now shaping up to be a cold month imho.

[Gowon]

Anyway, mine is only upto +24, meteociel been crap lately

Try this one http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkecmeur.html

[SMU]

I don't think IMBY posts should be allowed in the MO thread.

Anyway :

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

Atlantic edging in but not much strength in the jet to the NW, so may only be temporary if at all.

I dont think trolling posts should be in here saying the atlantic will be in on every single model run but hey ho-

the reply was to someone in the SE, however the same rule applies to most- the deeper & circular it is the warmer air spreads north-

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thats a pretty hefty block moving west from western russia towards scandy at 144h.

[Bristawl Si]

Are we entering "damp squib" territory then for much of the South re Sunday/Monday?

[Ian Brown]

We need another slider at T168 - the good thing and what has kept the Atlantic from bulldozing is the persistent low heights over Europe.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

We need another slider at T168 - the good thing and what has kept the Atlantic from bulldozing is the persistent low heights over Europe.

And thats a pretty big block moving westwards from west russia to scandy at 120 to 144hrs Ian.

Fascinating watching the two airmasses battle for supremecy

[Ian Brown]

Thats a pretty hefty block moving west from western russia towards scandy at 144h.

It can't come any further HD because of the AH, it can only edge SW with the jet over the top. What I'm hoping for is another slider and displacement of the AH to the West and then north.

Hard to say where it will go from day 7, remaining cool over the UK.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Disappointing ecm 12z really,azores high moving in on friday.

[Methuselah]

Are we entering "damp squib" territory then for much of the South re Sunday/Monday?

There's a good chance of that, BB...

[bluearmy]

ecm op looks messy and directionless in the mid range. too many options on the table. love the way that jma, with no shortwave builds a nice scandi high and then advects a cold puddle our way which slams the brakes on as it reaches denmark. not too disimilar to last febs which 'shortwaved' over the baltic sea but had lower uppers.

pixel - you needed a smiley face !

Edited February 7, 2013 by bluearmy

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It can't come any further HD because of the AH, it can only edge SW with the jet over the top. What I'm hoping for is another slider and displacement of the AH to the West and then north.

Hard to say where it will go from day 7, remaining cool over the UK.

Thought the atlantic was coming thorough Ian? Sorry but very confusing when ones are trying to learn but yet so many conflicting signals from people.

As Steve says , trough disruption at t144 , where the models go from hear is just for fun , because the positioning of the low pressures and the track they take will dictate the outcome after .

[Tony Beets]

It can't come any further HD because of the AH, it can only edge SW with the jet over the top. What I'm hoping for is another slider and displacement of the AH to the West and then north.

Hard to say where it will go from day 7, remaining cool over the UK.

A slider and displacement like what's been showing on the last few GFS runs in deep FI? That would work.

[goosey007]

All im seeing on the charts and reading is everything slowly unravelling as we get closer to this weekends event especially for southwales and the southwest....par for the course i guess with my locality ...hope to but dont expect to see any improvements in the morning......

[Dave Kightley]

Disappointing ecm 12z really,azores high moving in on friday.

Getting pushed back each time though. We had break down end of this weekend one point.. Tuesday, Wednesday now as you say Friday.

[frosty ground]

Disappointing ecm 12z really,azores high moving in on friday.

ECM is great for northern folk much better than the ukmet and gfs. Heavy snow sundwy into tuesdat followed by frosty and dry weather

[Long haul to mild]

I'm thankful we are in UKMO territory now for the weekend as that is the model I prefer to view things on. Remember last Friday? ECM and GFS both overdeepened a low that moved across the south of England, UKMO always had it as a shallower feature and was proved right.

If UKMO is right again, the low will be sharper, less rounded and less deep, which means better snow prospects for many. The FAX charts are now going to lead the way I feel.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[frosty ground]

Disappointing ecm 12z really,azores high moving in on friday.

ECM is great for northern folk much better than the ukmet and gfs. Heavy snow sundwy into tuesdat followed by frosty and dry weather

[weather eater]

All im seeing on the charts and reading is everything slowly unravelling as we get closer to this weekends event especially for southwales and the southwest....par for the course i guess with my locality ...hope to but dont expect to see any improvements in the morning......

Not sure about that, what I’m seeing is models that can’t agree with the shape, orientation and intensity of the LP system.

[MR EXTREMES]

I dont think trolling posts should be in here saying the atlantic will be in on every single model run but hey ho-

the reply was to someone in the SE, however the same rule applies to most- the deeper & circular it is the warmer air spreads north-

cant agree more with all of this post.

i dont see alantic domination at all. i think nearly every credible model has proved this please keep in mind things will change as the system moves through ukmo id say is more likely on the money.

so ian i think it might be worth taking a back seat to see where it heads i agree your just reading the models how you see things but its very misleading towards other posters on here and i agree with steve the alantic has not been very active at all and theres still time for sliders snow dry cold surface air there are many options but not a zonal blow torch which i know u enjoy so much.

i think miss guided posts dont help at all and you very much bring in the alantic before the charts are even out.

and the ecm 240 chart shows what could be the start of a greeny high pressure

Edited February 7, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[TEITS]

Are we entering "damp squib" territory then for much of the South re Sunday/Monday?

Difficult to say at the moment.

At this stage many will see this start as rain but there is a chance those towards the N&E stand a better chance of seeing all snow and this is especially true with elevation. Currently it appears around Sunday night into Monday is when rain will turn to snow at lower levels with this initially occuring in the Midlands/N England and slowly moving S. I would say based on the output locations such as the Midlands are ideally placed. Some will ask why not N England/Scotland and my reply would be that a shift SW of the LP remains a possibility.

Compare the ensembles at my location with the mean at -5C.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130207/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Gloucestershire stands at 0C

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130207/12/t850Gloucestershire.png

What hasn't been mentioned yet is the period between Tues into Wed. Once the band of cloud associated with the LP clears away a brief window when heavy convective snow showers will spread W across England. This period could give more snowfalls than the LP itself!

So for the moment the best location in my opinion is anyone who lives in the Peak District, worst anyone in the far SW.

[Roger J Smith]

I tell you Atlantic not so alive, Russian strong and flex muscle over weak countries to north, dont count out the retrofit.

There is no zonal, no big raining, not a chance. Snow wet as rain then white as snow.

Hmm, is this a case of possession?

[Long haul to mild]

To illustrate my point about models sometimes overdeepening LPs, here's the ECM 72 hr chart for last Friday. Quite a nasty little feature developing there.

This is what UKMO showed; a shallower feature.

This is what actually happened:

Even shallower than the UKMO's prediction!

Now I am aware that this proves nothing about this coming weekend but I believe is a valid point about some models overdeepening lows even at short range. The depth of this weekend's coming low will be crucial in snow distribution, so worth keeping in mind.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Chalk Serpent