winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Jan 87]

In spite of the norwegian shortwave, UKMO still holds the block in a reasonable place but it would be a whole lot better without that shortwave

[Gowon]

No Atlantic on the UKMO 144

[Mucka]

Not much evaluation of the UKMO 144 so here it is.

Very difficult to project how things would pan out later but probably staying cool and mostly dry at the surface post 144 but with the energy appearing to head NE no way to advect cold air toward us and no way retrogression can occur in the near term. That said we don't know how the jet would be modelled behind and high pressure to the East could hang on enough for undercut later. Not a great chart for the extension of cold though IMO but not the worse either.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Mucka

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO looks better than gfs for prolonging the cold,as far as this weekend is concerned who knows,its a very confusing picture!

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest the ukmo and gfs started pretty well but soon fell to bits for the longerterm outlook i got rather excited when i see the t96 ukmo but by t144 it was gone so downgrade for midterm.

gfs started ok aswell but after t144 it went down hill aswell both ukmo and gfs downgrade from this timeframe.

but big if is it right.

[Gary_R_Walker]

No Atlantic on the UKMO 144

NO ATLANTIC! Where the hell has it gone?

Edited February 7, 2013 by Gary_R_Walker

[Zenarcher]

UKMO and GFS have pushed things further West they are underestimating the high pressure to our North,

UKMO yesterday

And Today we see it make the high pressure stronger so it holds off any Atlantic systems a bit more.

GFS has done the same thing

Yesterday

GFS Today shows it has underdone the high even more and brings it in with a push more West.

This is all happening around 120 hours to 144 hours it could be the same thing that's happened many times before the models under do the high pressure and over do any low pressure systems but as we get nearer the time they downgrade the lows and upgrade the highs with a push West.

Edited February 7, 2013 by weathermaster

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

to be honest the ukmo and gfs started pretty well but soon fell to bits for the longerterm outlook i got rather excited when i see the t96 ukmo but by t144 it was gone so downgrade for midterm.

gfs started ok aswell but after t144 it went down hill aswell both ukmo and gfs downgrade from this timeframe.

but big if is it right.

Longer term gfs still promoting low heights across mainland europe,but we desperately need to see that Atlantic take a hike,maybe we will see some retrogression across the north atlantic in FI.

Despite my concerns feb will turn out to be a colder than average month imo.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

At 168 the Atlantic, for the first time this winter, looks like it's running out of purpose. Wonder where FI will take us. I wouldn't rule out Greenland height rises.

Can't post charts as on phone, laptop charger is bust!

Agreed CC ,

For the purpose of helping others understand false dawns from the Atlantic , this is today's chart for today .

This is what's happening this weekend.

This is what's predicted by the gfs this time next week.

As you can the chart looks very similar to today's actual analysis .

Not that the jet is active in anyway , shape , or form , but the gfs doesn't handle sliders well At all , always wants to take energy directly east , so the fact that its recognising the strong blocking to our northeast as major player is very good, all I can see in future from the Atlantic is small pockets of energy been forced under the block as it comes against the block.

Hope this helps,

[weather eater]

UKMO looks better than gfs for prolonging the cold,as far as this weekend is concerned who knows,its a very confusing picture!

Indeed, we have no consistency whatsoever beyond the early part of next week all the models seem at a loss.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm this morning t144

ukmo same time frame t144

very close to each other.

[SE Blizzards]

NOGAPS looks Amazing.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

Edited February 7, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Panayiotis]

NOGAPS looks Amazing.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Yes with the second low going for the undercut... I dont think the GFS has it right post 120hrs, things will likely to change, probably the block being more stubborn than it is actually being projected, similar thing happened in the last cold spell in January. Edited February 7, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a cold high pressure system will be over us by mid week giving us a spell of quite weather

It seems a bit quick to me

[weather eater]

One consistency that does seem to be emerging is the movement of the PV away from Greenland and the building of heights to our North and North West, three out of the last four GFS runs have all gone for this.

Edited February 7, 2013 by weather eater

[SMU]

If anyone wants to see the difference between what a run looks like with the norway shortwave & without compare the 06z nogaps with the 12z-

this is potentially why we keep missing out

12z perfect

http://www.meteociel...rte=1&archive=0

00z with spoiler

http://www.meteociel...your=7&annee=2013

A bit of mixed feelings for the 12s so far, nothing really resolved, we need westward corrections for more of the UK to have fun, but looks good for the NE at the moment.

All eyes on the norway shortwave in the midterm A s it could well have a strong bearing on the rest of feb- remember feb 12 all models broke the block down fast only to elongate the cold with renewed pushes from the east...

Edited February 7, 2013 by Steve Murr

[high ground birmingham]

Well I am surprised no one has commented about the precipitation moving back in on Monday night as the low wraps around on the 12z GFS. Its still a long way out but if it verified heavy snow moving back off the North Sea into Central England. Accumulations could be atleast 15-20cm in places.

114h 12z GFS:

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013020712/gem-0-84.png?12

obviously location dependent the SE contingent will be rooting for the GEM that sharpens up the low a lot faster & will be nearly all snow for the SE

S

[mulzy]

GEM has pushed Sunday's low way out west - maybe the east missing out on the precipitation.

[bobbydog]

hmm. the period up to t+90 is still quite undecided. however, all being well, we could get a cracking few days of snowfall, potentially giving almost everyone a decent amount. the point being though, there is still uncertainty at short range, so anyone claiming confidence in +144 and beyond is kidding themselves. in the meantime we have a potential epic snow event on our doorstep. if that happens, i could'nt really care what happens afterwards

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Ok Hold on , now finaly some people are starting to believe , me THERE is no Atlantik , was not will not.

Now is the beginning of the coldmaggedon en snowbombs.

This wil continue in march.

You see Ukmo , Nogaps , GFS , Gem 12z All have shut their mouth now end they are walking with me .

End i ask you to walk with me als wel.

At 01.00 Dutch Time i will come with a Major projektion .

The illusion wat some peole had created tha the winter is gone will be soon be burrried under the snow.

Now Greenland want to join the winter troops with us.

Stay tunend for update s.

ECMWF , JMA , BOM , CPTEC, CMA will speak soon.

Dont be afraid .I am with you.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well I am surprised no one has commented about the precipitation moving back in on Monday night as the low wraps around on the 12z GFS. Its still a long way out but if it verified heavy snow moving back off the North Sea into Central England. Accumulations could be atleast 15-20cm in places.

114h 12z GFS:

Yes I noticed when I flicking through there seems to be another disturbance coming across the country Monday night into Tuesday , followed by a showers northeasterly for 24 hours after , it looks like the first half of next week may well be a very snowy period .

[Nick F]

Milder Atlantic air not making any inroads at the surface at all next week for most looking at the 12z GFS, apart from the far west. So I'm sure that will please many on here.

And the signal for snow certainly expanding southwards on the latest GFS, now that the low ends up further south late Sunday.

[chris55]

GEM has pushed Sunday's low way out west - maybe the east missing out on the precipitation.

00z was the same with the front hardly making it past Wales.

[chris55]

Yes I noticed when I flicking through there seems to be another disturbance coming across the country Monday night into Tuesday , followed by a showers northeasterly for 24 hours after , it looks like the first half of next week may well be a very snowy period .

Yep, noted it in the regional thread, also noted how uncertain ppn amount will be into next week, but surely some will be seeing plenty of snow.