winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Tamara]

Yes, whilst it is fun to discuss what may happen in terms of snow this coming weekend, it's not in reliable precipitation forecasting range yet, so people shouldn't get too hung up on where may or may not get snow. I am still plumping for the UKMO option as its record at that range is well known and it doesn't over deepen lows like GFS and ECM are often prone to do.

I agree, all eyes on the NAE from tomorrow re precipitation type and distribution, but even that may well change as it gets closer.

Nicely summarised The UKMO had the best handle on the little low that was set to cross Southern England last weekend. Both GFS and ECM had a deep and quite intense bundle of awkwardness modelled, whilst the UKMO never was interested and kept the very shallow wave feature that reality proved to be corrent. Actually even the NAE within its time range a day or so before over modelled it as well. So that does further emphasise the cautionary note for developments on Sunday/Monday and why we may well have to wait right up to the time of its arrival (perhaps)

[Long haul to mild]

SITUATION VACANT

Wanted; cannon fodder model. Due to a recent departure (NOGAPS) we have a vacancy for a model that always gets things utterly wrong and can be relied upon to show the complete opposite of all other models.

Ideally, it needs to run twice a day and be prepared to violently flip flop from run to run. The best candidate will show no signs of improving over time and will be steady in its utter uselessness.

However, the candidate must be prepared to be wheeled out and heralded as the most accurate model when showing a potential cold spell in times of extreme winter mildness.

We look forward to receiving applications.

[bradymk]

SITUATION VACANT

Wanted; cannon fodder model. Due to a recent departure (NOGAPS) we have a vacancy for a model that always gets things utterly wrong and can be relied upon to show the complete opposite of all other models.

Ideally, it needs to run twice a day and be prepared to violently flip flop from run to run. The best candidate will show no signs of improving over time and will be steady in its utter uselessness.

However, the candidate must be prepared to be wheeled out and heralded as the most accurate model when showing a potential cold spell in times of extreme winter mildness.

We look forward to receiving applications.

I think the GFS fits the bill perfectly

[The Northern Ramper]

SITUATION VACANT

Wanted; cannon fodder model. Due to a recent departure (NOGAPS) we have a vacancy for a model that always gets things utterly wrong and can be relied upon to show the complete opposite of all other models.

Ideally, it needs to run twice a day and be prepared to violently flip flop from run to run. The best candidate will show no signs of improving over time and will be steady in its utter uselessness.

However, the candidate must be prepared to be wheeled out and heralded as the most accurate model when showing a potential cold spell in times of extreme winter mildness.

We look forward to receiving applications.

The Gfs has already applied with it's record since Xmas as reference

[Djdazzle]

I think the GFS fits the bill perfectly

GFS doesn't qualify - it runs 4 times a day.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Dear Dear ... Quit the sniping . Ian is entitled to his view as much as the next man . Besides the ECM does try and break the Atlantic through. .. And until yesterday at least Exeter was going for a W/SW breakdown. I don't personally think the Atlantic will break through and I think energy will be forced under the block . But if at least 1 chart is showing Ians view as a possibility he is more than entitled to his view.. Im going to be reporting sniping posts from now on because this is really getting on my nerves....

[shotski]

JMA Long range ensembles show a strong signal for pressure to rise to the north west (weeks 3/4)

Beware the false dawn I would say.

[bradymk]

GFS doesn't qualify - it runs 4 times a day.

Precisely why it should qualify, CS said "Ideally, it needs to run twice a day". Which i think the GFS should do (00z and 12z) to save us all the pain of the different solutions it chucks out on its current 4 runs Im only joking however, every model has there strengths, even the GFS.

[Jason M]

I think Sunday and Monday are potentially very interesting, although of course the 'event' will be rain to begin with. It's very complex for forecasters as such a situation always has been.

Hi Ian

Yes, I agree completely with that. In fact its so complex that gut instinct is probably not a bad way to go this far out. My own thinking is lots of non settling wet snow for most, but anywhere with elevation will get a covering.

I'm becoming more interested tbh in what's brewing mid month onwards. You and I may not agree on that though as looking at the trends in the GEFS the last couple of days, the signal for a more notable cold spell is growing strongly. The cold spell next week is unlikely to last but I think the cold uppers will be removed from the east rather than the west. For early Feb the continent really is warm (in relative terms). Record breaking temps in parts of the Balkans this morning from a report I saw this morning on daybreak (though clearly not the best source:-))

It could be very different by mid month though ;-)

Jason

[Bristawl Si]

Interesting post from Ian Fergie in south west and central southern regional thread 15 mins ago:

"Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement."

So seems to me that raw model output seen, and commented on tonight is not the be all and end all for Sunday/Monday.

The developing situ continues to 'fluctuate' - is this indicating the push East wont be so pronounced?

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think tomorrow will be the day we come into agreement r.e the most likely track of the low. Ians thoughts are encouraging as if it will be Cold enough in SW it definitely will be elsewhere

[manutdmatt1986]

I think tomorrow will be the day we come into agreement r.e the most likely track of the low. Ians thoughts are encouraging as if it will be Cold enough in SW it definitely will be elsewhere

Yes but, if Ian is saying that the snow risk for Central and South Western areas is higher then that could mean the frontal is going to stall further West and may leave many Eastern areas dry. It really is on a knife edge for much of the country!

[lord stratus]

Dear Dear ... Quit the sniping . Ian is entitled to his view as much as the next man . Besides the ECM does try and break the Atlantic through. .. And until yesterday at least Exeter was going for a W/SW breakdown. I don't personally think the Atlantic will break through and I think energy will be forced under the block . But if at least 1 chart is showing Ians view as a possibility he is more than entitled to his view.. Im going to be reporting sniping posts from now on because this is really getting on my nerves....

Dear Dear ... Quit the sniping . Ian is entitled to his view as much as the next man . Besides the ECM does try and break the Atlantic through. .. And until yesterday at least Exeter was going for a W/SW breakdown. I don't personally think the Atlantic will break through and I think energy will be forced under the block . But if at least 1 chart is showing Ians view as a possibility he is more than entitled to his view.. Im going to be reporting sniping posts from now on because this is really getting on my nerves....

I agree with you entirely but you should also consider reporting posts that are created to wind up members. When this forum was called hunt for cold recently there was a certain member only looking for a mild outcome whatever the charts were showing. Playing on people's disappointments when a cold spell or snow event recedes is not in the spirit of things!

[shotski]

I would say 16 GEFS pertubations show a strong mid atlantic ridge with linking to Greenland or blocking

over Greenland at T-324, a very strong signal at that range I would say.

No real sign of anything mild out to the later part of Feb at least.

[Southender]

Interesting post from Ian Fergie in south west and central southern regional thread 15 mins ago:

"Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement."

So seems to me that raw model output seen, and commented on tonight is not the be all and end all for Sunday/Monday.

The developing situ continues to 'fluctuate' - is this indicating the push East wont be so pronounced?

Would suggest the Met think the low maybe further South and West. Quite possible.

[lord stratus]

Interesting post from Ian Fergie in south west and central southern regional thread 15 mins ago:

"Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement."

So seems to me that raw model output seen, and commented on tonight is not the be all and end all for Sunday/Monday.

The developing situ continues to 'fluctuate' - is this indicating the push East wont be so pronounced?

I agree, as we move into the weekend it's best to keep a close eye on the ukmo and ECM. I believe there will be a south and west correction over the next couple of days which will mean a change in the snow risk areas.

[chris55]

Interesting post from Ian Fergie in south west and central southern regional thread 15 mins ago:

"Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement."

So seems to me that raw model output seen, and commented on tonight is not the be all and end all for Sunday/Monday.

The developing situ continues to 'fluctuate' - is this indicating the push East wont be so pronounced?

It all depends which raw output you take, GEM has the Low way to the West ECM further East. This highlights the uncertainty. High res ensemble forecasts are prob best bet (ie from the met) but as ever things will change right down to the day of the potential event.

[Ice BIast]

ECM ensemble mean really keeps the blocking going:

T192:

[Bonjangle]

Just wondering if the weekends event do come to something good will Wales get a second red alert this year and also other areas in the firing line .

[Matty M]

Very interesting ECM EPS, if only we had a deep cold pool to our east i would be very excited.

[chris55]

Just wondering if the weekends event do come to something good will Wales get a second red alert this year and also other areas in the firing line .

Way to early to be discussing that! At present Met have a broad yellow warning, this shows the "at risk" areas, but they cover a large area at the moment as the track and air mass is still uncertain. As we head closer the warnings will be changed/upgraded/downgraded.

[snowmadchrisuk]

ECM ensemble mean really keeps the blocking going:

T192:

Have to say thats impressive ..Atlantic looks very inactive

[Tom Montalbano]

Interesting post from Ian Fergie in south west and central southern regional thread 15 mins ago:

"Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement."

So seems to me that raw model output seen, and commented on tonight is not the be all and end all for Sunday/Monday.

The developing situ continues to 'fluctuate' - is this indicating the push East wont be so pronounced?

That's a very interesting update from Ian F and pretty much in line with the METOs latest FAX for t72.

FAX is further s/w than any other of the "big" models and slightly more shallow too, being a little weaker should keep the system further s/w as it enters the Channel and on into N.France. Will be very interesting to see the updated FAXES for t96/t120, later on tonight.

From a very IMBY perspective would hopefully like the low not to deepen and enter France around about the Cherbourg Pen.

Would expect a track like that to result in snow for many parts of southern England.

Regards,

Tom.

[chris55]

ECM op to progressive with the Atlantic at days 9/10 as shown on the Deblit 10 day ens,

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

EC Moyenne is good , Ec oper is false outlier at the end.

End Cma 12z als , look at that at 144 .