South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/02/13 00z ------->

[Gibby]

The problem is that the angle of attack from the Atlantic is at too high a latitude due to that stubborn Azores High. It makes that block to the NE meaningless if its snow your after and you live in the SW.

[Coast]

Coast, i`m afraid it looks that way bud. But hey, bring on spring and hopefully nicer year as opposed to last.

I'll drink to that!!

[jtay]

You never know...

This wasn't there for Central SE this morning (noon tomorrow). Yes, it's just leading edge stuff turning to rain and still might not happen, but it does demonstrate how we can't be certain for Sun/Mon this far out.

[A.J]

some 'over the top' bordering on ridiculous posts in here this afternoon...Coast is absolutely right, nothing is written in stone, especially considering we are still some 36-48 hours away from the 'starting pistol'....This coming scenario has been a nightmare to forecast from the amateur to the professional, and no doubt will continue to be a nightmare to accurately forecast right down to T0....So please think before posting as pointless, negative one-liners might well end up being zapped into internet oblivion....cheers!

[Ali1977]

GEM looks great for wiltshire...

Edited February 8, 2013 by Ali1977

[offerman]

Poolshark, umm, love to give you game of pool one day :-)

[Gibby]

A thoroughly wet Sunday with circa 20 mm of rain followed by showers pm and notably milder than recent days totally mitigating any risk of snow over Somerset on Sunday via Ian live on BBC Somerset at 16:45.

[Bristawl Si]

some 'over the top' bordering on ridiculous posts in here this afternoon...Coast is absolutely right, nothing is written in stone, especially considering we are still some 36-48 hours away from the 'starting pistol'....This coming scenario has been a nightmare to forecast from the amateur to the professional, and no doubt will continue to be a nightmare to accurately forecast right down to T0....So please think before posting as pointless, negative one-liners might well end up being zapped into internet oblivion....cheers!

Hmm....see Gibby's post below though. He usually tells it as he sees it with no b#llsh#t.

[Blizzardof82]

A thoroughly wet Sunday with circa 20 mm of rain followed by showers pm and notably milder than recent days totally mitigating any risk of snow over Somerset on Sunday via Ian live on BBC Somerset at 16:45.

I still hope for a turnaround Gibby, last night Ian was talking up potential for West Country so all can still change. Reality says it probably wont but my glass half full attitude says it can, Gem has been consistent in keeping it further south and west so here is hoping. Current temp 5.1c dew point 2.3c wind light northerly.

[chris55]

some 'over the top' bordering on ridiculous posts in here this afternoon...Coast is absolutely right, nothing is written in stone, especially considering we are still some 36-48 hours away from the 'starting pistol'....This coming scenario has been a nightmare to forecast from the amateur to the professional, and no doubt will continue to be a nightmare to accurately forecast right down to T0....So please think before posting as pointless, negative one-liners might well end up being zapped into internet oblivion....cheers!

I so agree with that, I thought I had entered the model output thread for a second!

[chris55]

Hmm....see Gibby's post below though. He usually tells it as he sees it with no b#llsh#t.

Lets just wait and see what unfolds.

[chris55]

I still hope for a turnaround Gibby, last night Ian was talking up potential for West Country so all can still change. Reality says it probably wont but my glass half full attitude says it can, Gem has been consistent in keeping it further south and west so here is hoping. Current temp 5.1c dew point 2.3c wind light northerly.

Reality says no supercomputer or forecaster can pin this one down 100% at 48 hours out.

Although of course we can not discount the experts, there is still enough wiggle room for things to evolve slightly more favourably for some in the region.

[snowmadchrisuk]

IMO Snow risk slightly increased compared to the 6z .. Bristol still might be in it ...

[cerneman]

Temp 5.4c, Dry day with some sunny spells, Rather pleasant in sun, Had time to start to tidy garden,

Edited February 8, 2013 by cerneman

[Iceberg]

far too early to call sunday, heres the 1000-850 thickness charts between nae and gfs for T48 hrs, firstly nae is deeper, but mainly it creates a dual low, which allows the cold air to cut between the two systems, nae in general has much colder thicknesses and would reflect that if it continued out past t48.

Meto and GEM also have different variants for sunday.

Re tomorrow, both ultra high res models of nae and nmm keep a much much stronger snow signal for a small area, north and east dorset, wilts and hampshire, possible into glos. totals of 5-10cm could be seen and nmm in particular hints at a possible all snow event for some areas.

[SNOWYLAD]

It's too mild, the low isn't coming up against cold, it relies on sucking cold air from Europe, which isn't that cold either. All this spells rain folks, let move onto the next cold spell in a few weeks.

[Nights King]

I'm fairly confused now to be honest, netweather forecast based on gfs has got chance of heavy snow IMBY from midnight sunday through to 9am monday.

Is it possible this could still trend back into out region in next 24 hours?

Also shows some light/moderate snow saturday morning?

It's too mild, the low isn't coming up against cold, it relies on sucking cold air from Europe, which isn't that cold either. All this spells rain folks, let move onto the next cold spell in a few weeks.

In a few weeks (3/4) it will be spring... I'd rather this one changed in our favour.

[John88B]

Evening all. I'm no expert but judging from others postings around the forums, do I detect things slowly but surely shifting south and west as regards to the Sunday/Monday rain or snow event?

I've still got my fingers crossed for a bit of the white stuff and am still thinking things could get interesting.

Is this being realistic or just wishful thinking?

[galacticwarrior]

BBC Weather forecasts downgrades for my area. I wonder if it might be a non-event (i hope im wrong and misled!)

[SNOWYLAD]

I'm fairly confused now to be honest, netweather forecast based on gfs has got chance of heavy snow IMBY from midnight sunday through to 9am monday.

Is it possible this could still trend back into out region in next 24 hours?

Also shows some light/moderate snow saturday morning?

In a few weeks (3/4) it will be spring... I'd rather this one changed in our favour.

Yes roll on spring. I love snow, but we have had our 2 events for the winter here, that's enough for me!

[lfcdude]

Light snow sat then.... for east of the region .. Wiltshire ..For me.. Not the worst of forecasts... Hoping sunday can pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Hot of the press... Well twitter...

Liam Dutton â€@liamdutton

@fergieweather Interesting lobe of moderate snow across east of your patch tomorrow AM for a few hours. Looks intensity driven...

Edited February 8, 2013 by lfcdude

[Bristawl Si]

Maybe i interpreted it wrong but Ian's forecast did still have a slight hint of uncertainty for Monday.

[Ali1977]

I agree, I think things are changing for Sunday night...especially north of our area...

[BristolBaggie]

Light snow sat then.... for east of the region .. Wiltshire ..For me.. Not the worst of forecasts... Hoping sunday can pull a rabbit out of a hat.

Terrible forecast snow wise for Bristol southwards for Sun/Mon. Story of this winter so far everything always too marginal., a consequence of not having days of sustained cold established before the snow arrives.

Ian seemed quite bullish about a no snow event for this area now (apart from very north of our region).

[Croydondazz]

Arrived this afternoon in Lyme Regis for the weekend anyone have any thoughts on tomorrow's weather and dare I ask Sunday