Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Matty M]

Again the chase goes deeper into FI.

Again we see the models resist the idea of height rises over Greenland, the most crucial ingredient to any decent cold spell.

A disappointing ECM Output considering this mornings stellar run.

Greenland High Greenland High Where art thou.

[Tim Bland]

C

and finally ive seen enough to convince me that winter has just about the final nail.

Eh?!? That low is going SE... The high over us will be sliced and go north..all points to an easterly to me

Re above post were not chasing the never occurring dream..we are currently sub zero under an easterly feed with snow cover for many. Tommorow will be snowy for most. It's then only likely to be 4 / 5 days before cold and possible snow return...if this isn't good enough then you need to move to Canada lol

Edited February 12, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry but you're completely misreading this chart.

The train from the E will be arriving shortly.

Certainly a cold pool out east.

[chris55]

ECM 168 quite different from the 00z with the Low to the north west getting pulled into the low exiting Canada, where the 00z had it pushing south thus allowing the big Greeny to form. However the 12z version still looks good, just that the cold may well come from A Scandi high rather than the big Greenland high shown on the 00z. Overall the broad pattern is not to different it is just the interaction between these two Lows that has changed, and at 144+ thats open to much change.

[Mucka]

Eh?!? That low is going SE... The high over us will be sliced and go north..all points to an easterly to me

Not that I agree with the original assessment but this is incorrect as well. That low is forced NW and swallowed by the next system.

It is however a slow burning Easterly in the making but the sort of pattern that offers jam tomorrow yet the Atlantic always sends to much energy over the top when it comes into mid term and flattens it in my experience.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

Variations in a theme but crucially, energy goes se and the ridge goes north. some posters clearly in the mod for a wind up are best ignored. Not sure the greenland high will be available next week. Much more like an icelandic/svaalbard feature. Maybe the greeny lock will follow when the arctic pattern allows.

[Katiewombat]

Please can some one explain. This thread has become a mixture of mixed messages and for us learners is very confusing.

Thank you

Katie

[SMU]

Not bad at all at 168

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?12-0

http://www.meteociel...F0-192.GIF?12-0 deep cold just a few hours away

slightly inconsistent inter run variability- but enough at 144 to see Northward advection which starts the ball rolling.

Its going to be a long 5 / 6 days on here-

S

Edited February 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Mair Snaw]

and finally ive seen enough to convince me that winter has just about the final nail.

Pretty certain to my untrained eye that this chart is looking like height rise to our N/NW. This will surely lead to Atlantic being blocked out and cold coming our way from east, i may be wrong but thats how i see this chart.

Edited February 12, 2013 by bigsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

She's on her way....

You can see the PV I spoke of earlier, way to the NE but it's ready to drop S....

240 should be a cracker.

Edited February 12, 2013 by CreweCold

[Matty M]

By Day 9/10 the trend is good with heights increasing over Greenland/Iceland region and a sharp initial cold shot over the UK

[PolarWarsaw]

I fail to see the need for 'nail in the coffin posts'. Anyone with a remote clue on how winter's have gone over the years will realise that settling snow is and will happen from this day right the way through to the very last few days of March and if the Uppers are suitable and high pressure in charge it will stick around. For my money thats another 4-5 weeks with the chance of snow events. Now I'm not sure what everyone constitutes as good winter weather, but the best part of snow is seeing it fall IMO. That can happen for another 4-5 weeks yet. So a chart tonight at t144, is NOT a final nail in the coffin.

Edited February 12, 2013 by PolarWarsaw

[Snowy Liverpool]

She's on her way....

Just imagine if that vortex spills over Scandinavia, would be irrelevant that it's later Feb/March, that would easily give us the coldest weather of the winter.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Snowy Liverpool

[ChartViewer]

By Day 9/10 the trend is good with heights increasing over Greenland/Iceland region and a sharp initial cold shot over the UK

Final nail was being banged into the Winter coffin...but just got bashed out by Greenland/Iceland/Scandy ....all aboard another long train!

[Dave Kightley]

216h ECM is so close to the stellar Cfs run from around the same time frame the other day..

[SMU]

Almost Guarenteed GH at 240-

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just imagine if that vortex spills over Scandinavia, would be irrelevant that it's later Feb/March, that would easily give us the coldest weather of the winter.

Indeed. We may see our most severe spell so far, regardless of date.

[Mucka]

Here is ECM showing energy undercutting as opposed to being forced up against the block and back NW as the 144/168 showed.

Interesting that ECM downplayed the original attempt at undercut but still amplified the pattern enough to be keen on a second attempt. That implies there is a strong background signal for the jet to dig South and for high pressure to build to our NW.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mucka

[Katiewombat]

Final nail was being banged into the Winter coffin...but just got bashed out by Greenland/Iceland/Scandy ....all aboard another long train!

If I promise to learn to read the models before next winter. Someone please explain.

:-)

[TEITS]

Please can some one explain. This thread has become a mixture of mixed messages and for us learners is very confusing.

Thank you

Katie

Must seem confusing at times.

Basically the E,ly train does arrive on the ECM and to be honest even at +144 this appeared very likely. You will often find members have different interpretations of the model output and an understanding of how the run is progressing.

The most pleasing aspect of the ECM run is something we haven't seen all winter and that is a negative NAO developing.

[chris55]

The good thing about the 12z ECM is that even though the Low pressure systems to the West early on behave differently between the 00z and 12z both runs result in a cold outlook for the UK. The 00z from a Greenland high and the 12z from a (proper) Scandi high. So it's win win so far today from the ECM.

Also the colder pattern looks pretty "locked in" on the 12z!!!!

[london-snow]

Not bad at all at 168

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?12-0

http://www.meteociel...F0-192.GIF?12-0 deep cold just a few hours away

slightly inconsistent inter run variability- but enough at 144 to see Northward advection which starts the ball rolling.

Its going to be a long 5 / 6 days on here-

S

As ever i am game.

But will chase be yet another case of a ' Watered ' down version that we have been seeing this winter.

If that's the case then i would take a settled spell with average temperatures...

For the sake of my notes in my wallet that are quickly disappearing due to internet connection required to view this forum...

THIS BETTER BE WORTH ANOTHER £30.00P....

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...0.GIF?12-0##THe sausage high in full force-

In the league of Highs for the UK which are the best???

1) Sausage ( in the right place )

2) Iceland

3) Greenland

4) Scandi

5) Arctic

6) Siberian.

7) Atlantic ( especially if held back west like Dec 81)

S

London snow dont you owe me a pint for the 4 days of easterly winds?

Edited February 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

im very sorry about the nail statement but considering t144 is fi i dont really buy the rest of the ecm evolution when other models dont suggest the same theme and we have been down this road many many times this winter.

the ecm later runs are very nice indeed but id take a punt on more of a uk based block.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

There he is again the ECMWF , again en again with the cold solution.

First with a easterly by High pressure south Scandinavie .

After that it moves towards Iceland /greenland with a NE en very cold than ,.

Cold solution , on the road for wintry weather again ,perhaps the main event !

EC 12z operationeel the 4e run at row for cold , en high turing towards noord/scandi en later Iceland en Greenland/.

Fase 4 s amp 1 will be correct.

GWO.