Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[DAVID SNOW]

My word but I admire the optimism on here, It’s like that song Tub thumping,†I get knocked down but I get up again aint nothing gonna keep me downâ€. We all know the Overall ECM verification stats but I cannot remember a decent easterly modelled by the ECM at 144hrs plus actually happening, I will happily take a bet with anyone that we will not see a decent easterly from the current modelling, it’s a win win bet for me even if I lose.

ok weather eater i will take your bet , great news regarding your health if i may say

[winterof79]

Excellent post Mr G...once again no need to read the previous pages of drivel you have summed up nicely exactly how it is.

No problems with the model output

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021212/ECH1-216.GIF?12-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021212/UN144-21.GIF?12-18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013021212/gemnh-0-144.png?12

No raging S/W in any output.

[Matty M]

Lets remember though that the ECM 240hr chart has very low skill and if i recall correctly something like 3% chance of occurring.

Interesting to note the 240hr ECM 12z OP is very similar to the ECM 0z EPS mean.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Matty M

[snowangel32]

My god its hard enough to follow the models but with conflicting posts its hard to know if its a good run or a bad run. And what do people think the fabled Grenland H chances are of verifying and what could stop if forming and what to look out for on the models in future runs, thanks

Edited February 12, 2013 by snowangel32

[cooling climate]

_{Loads of potential in the models this evening and the trend continues for northern blocking}

_{to take hold. Would not be at all surprised to see the coldest weather of the winter over the next}

_{two to three weeks.}

_{I think a Greenland high will come eventually not that I am overly bothered but the favourite at}

_{the moment must be for heights to our north/northeast over the next 6-12 days.}

[Summer Sun]

The 2m temperature charts from GFS certainly looks mild for the best part of the GFS run

FI sees a cool down

Edited February 12, 2013 by Gavin.

[chris55]

GEM's evolution of the Atlantic Low leaves us in a rather mild flow, would feel almost spring like. Totally cut off from the Canadian low and moving north west.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Paul

[weather eater]

What is your take on the METO further and MRF in comparrison to the output.?Presumably no easterly influence.

I did not say no easterly I said no decent easterly, certainly not of the sort we are all looking for, I think we will have a blocked cool pattern, cool with cold nights depending on cloud cover, At 240hrs I suspect a GFS type of pattern to be more likely than that currently shown on the ECM. I know that’s not what people want, or want to believe will happen, but I feel utterly confident that we are not going to have a GH and/or a big booming easterly at 240hrs.

Further and medium range forecasts are as always going to be subject to much revision.

Edited February 12, 2013 by weather eater

[weather eater]

ok weather eater i will take your bet , great news regarding your health if i may say

Thank you David, and like I say if I'm wrong that will be great.

[ChartViewer]

Interesting blocking profile for cfs v2

[Stu_London]

London snow dont you owe me a pint for the 4 days of easterly winds?

Ha ha

I was hoping you were going to accept my offer an honourable draw.

I think we agreed 8th-12th at Oxford.

8th and 9th weren't predominately easterly.

from the 10th yes, but lots of SSE readings which weren't really what you had in mind.

All here

http://uk.weather.com/weather/hourByHour-UKXX0106:1:UK

LOL its all well and good having it but 99.9% of the cold lovers are only after one thing you know that..

Besides you have had one free beer from me already off the pile competition.

I think there is some confusion with the London people with London in their names - I had the wager with SM.

[winterof79]

I did not say no easterly I said no decent easterly, certainly not of the sort we are all looking for, I think we will have a blocked cool pattern, cool with cold nights depending on cloud cover, At 240hrs I suspect a GFS type of pattern to be more likely than that currently shown on the ECM. I know that’s not what people want, or want to believe will happen, but I feel utterly confident that we are not going to have a GH and/or a big booming easterly at 240hrs.

Further and medium range forecasts are as always going to be subject to much revision.

Thankyou for the reply Weather eater,but the Meto have been consistent in the cold outlook.Thats why i asked

[Gary_R_Walker]

It's a times like this I'm very glad I'm not a moderator on here (and please stop begging me to be one I'm far too busy being a pest). As soon as we reach this stage of winter and there is no sign of proper cold or snow for the foreseeable the knives come out and instead of venting their anger at the weather certain individuals start beating each other up (in safe cyber behind a keyboard mode of course). The bottom line is this (and if you don't believe me ask the experts) weather models can't predict the weather out to 14 days. So just ignore people who even discuss what they see in the models at that range. The people that do look, and post their views on what the models are showing at that range should really be given a seperate area within Netweather, you could actually call it "Fantasy Island" and strangely I think it would be quite a popular part of the forum. Just look how popular the Jeremy Kyle show is.

[Dunstable Snow]

Well the closing frames of the ECM are dreamy and would give us a great end to winter and a very cold start to spring. The evolution looks plausible and could progress at a faster and less stressful rate were more energy to go South East earlier. As Steve says its going to be a long 5 or 6 days but with clearly such a strong signal for the jet stream to go south and heights to extend to the north of Britian ( evidenced by upper air patterns also) I feel reasonably confident that we will have an evolution that ultimately ends up with high pressure extending west to the north of the UK towards Greenland. The really encouraging thing with these charts is that the PV looks primed to drop into the gap through Eastern Scandy/Western Russia and this would undoubtedly give us the coldest spell of the winter notwithstanding the time of year and TEITS would certainly get his convective Easterly with plenty of snow showers and some brightness between the showers - perfect ! ( as long as the wind doesnt veer too much to the South of East in which case it could be grey and dank . I wouldnt be surprised to see this pattern lock in for a period but ultimately become west based -NAO in line with GP's initial thoughts for February as we go towards mid March.

If that does materialise we will all be ready for a decent spring by the time Easter arrives and we can join in with Gavin's enthusiasm for settled and dry !

Cheers

[Yarmy]

http://www.meteociel...0.GIF?12-0##THe sausage high in full force-

In the league of Highs for the UK which are the best???

1) Sausage ( in the right place )

2) Iceland

3) Greenland

4) Scandi

5) Arctic

6) Siberian.

7) Atlantic ( especially if held back west like Dec 81)

S

London snow dont you owe me a pint for the 4 days of easterly winds?

Corbyn Solar Sausage

The worst of all: a real snowstopper, but also a handily convenient forecast buster.

Anyway, so much variation in the models it's hard to have any confidence in anything but the removal of the stubborn PV lobe over Canada at least brings some possibilities.

[stodge]

It's a times like this I'm very glad I'm not a moderator on here (and please stop begging me to be one I'm far too busy being a pest). As soon as we reach this stage of winter and there is no sign of proper cold or snow for the foreseeable the knives come out and instead of venting their anger at the weather certain individuals start beating each other up (in safe cyber behind a keyboard mode of course). The bottom line is this (and if you don't believe me ask the experts) weather models can't predict the weather out to 14 days. So just ignore people who even discuss what they see in the models at that range. The people that do look, and post their views on what the models are showing at that range should really be given a seperate area within Netweather, you could actually call it "Fantasy Island" and strangely I think it would be quite a popular part of the forum. Just look how popular the Jeremy Kyle show is.

But instead of that we get people either saying ad nauseam "ECM never delivers an Easterly" or "I don't believe the evolution until it's at T+48 and anyway FI is T+96". If that's all people are willng or able to post, this soon becomes a very dull and quiet forum. We have what the models give us - if people are too scared or unwilling to commit themselves and want to pour cold water on other people's enthausiasm that's their prerogative but again that shouldn't be what this forum's about either.

On topic, both ECM and GFS are very good and I don't think anyone was suggesting cold as early as the weekend or early next week. The route to very cold, as I've often said, usually starts from very mild and the first stage is to get the blocking in place which will happen over the weekend and early next. Colder conditions are on the table but not for another week. Forecasts of colder weather were always talking about the last third of February and into March and that still looks plausible tonight.

[chris55]

It's a times like this I'm very glad I'm not a moderator on here (and please stop begging me to be one I'm far too busy being a pest). As soon as we reach this stage of winter and there is no sign of proper cold or snow for the foreseeable the knives come out and instead of venting their anger at the weather certain individuals start beating each other up (in safe cyber behind a keyboard mode of course). The bottom line is this (and if you don't believe me ask the experts) weather models can't predict the weather out to 14 days. So just ignore people who even discuss what they see in the models at that range. The people that do look, and post their views on what the models are showing at that range should really be given a seperate area within Netweather, you could actually call it "Fantasy Island" and strangely I think it would be quite a popular part of the forum. Just look how popular the Jeremy Kyle show is.

Discussing the ECM at 240 is a big part of what this thread is about, and why on earth shouldn't we?

All I take offence at is people insinuating that whole pages of the thread are drivel, i.e childlike, silly and nonsensical.

That is so not true.

The output tonight (and that's the model output - as in the name of the thread) is showing various outcomes, as ever, and one of them is pretty cold. to discuss this fact is what the thread is for, end of. Whether that be in FI or not.

I could post loads of charts to back this up, and thus this post probably wouldn't get deleted, but to be frank I can't be arsed,

I'm probs going to lay off the MO thread for a little while now. Soz for the off topic posts mods.

[weatherguy]

Quite interesting that the ECM +240h chart (left) is remarkably similar to the GFS +360h chart (right), for our locale anyway...

Doesn't really mean anything, but fun to look at nonetheless!

Analysis:

ECM looks fantastic, it's great to see that Canadian segment of PV pack it's bags and head across to Siberia. This allows height rises in the Greenland region and, as that high to our NE retrogresses, we would see that lobe drop into Scandy/Europe and inject some well needed cold uppers which have been largely missing through the winter. Whether the high is well placed enough to bring that cold air towards us is another issue, but it's encouraging that we've seen this evolution for a fair few runs now - Time is running out so we need something like this to verify soon though!

GFS less so due to higher pressure/warmer uppers over Europe proper and the delay in bringing us in that easterly flow. I do largely discount what the GFS would show though; not to say the ECM will verify but I'd certainly choose ECM over GFS given relative performances so far this winter. The intense LP developed early on in the GFS run is what delays that pattern from setting up, and I think the GFS is (typically) overdoing this.

Edited February 12, 2013 by weatherguy

[phil nw.]

A nice ECM for a return to a colder outlook later and it has the overall pattern closer to the 00z height ens forecasts.

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif

GFS is again flatter and keeps the Scandinavian cell further south and inevitably the westerlies come in over the top lifting temperatures.

To get some deep cold and snow we really need the ECM to verify without any modification and that`s always possible 9-10days away.

At least we have good agreement of the ridging north at T120-144hrs but it`s the orientation and positioning of the high that is key to the coldness of any easterly that may develop later.

[snowking]

Whilst I await the 12z ECM mean heights (incidentally for brief information, the 12z GEM/GFS mean continues the recent theme, HP to the N of the UK), if anyone was hoping for some clarity from the overnight update of the EC32 - think again

Not really a coherent signal beyond the weekend

SK

[Tom Jarvis]

Whilst I await the 12z ECM mean heights (incidentally for brief information, the 12z GEM/GFS mean continues the recent theme, HP to the N of the UK), if anyone was hoping for some clarity from the overnight update of the EC32 - think again

Not really a coherent signal beyond the weekend

SK

That has got more ups and downs than the Big Dipper in Blackpool

[Matty M]

Some decent ECM EPS stamps at 168hrs

Circa 10/50 going for an easterly set up at this point.

[Summer Sun]

ECM short ensemble shows a good agreement for a cool down at the end of its run

Precipitation remains very low through-out

[snowking]

Right then, you know the drill by now.

6-10 day means from the GFS and GEM:

Signal for higher heights to the north of the UK remains, now, the ECMWF EPS Mean progression paints an interesting picture:

Very keen on heights to the N of the UK, transferring W with time, with heights to the south lowering. What is being portrayed is a rather strong signal for HP over the UK, retrogressing with time. Cooler easterly flow developing (though still looking dry for now), with potential for something less dry the further S you head.

Consistent signal now for some time for this to happen, and one that sticks through to the day 11-15 period:

SK

Edited February 12, 2013 by snowking

[legritter]

Are we a happy bunch Posters ,obviously some arent .im not a happy bunny in my weather world no real disruptive snow or blizzards or minus 25 uppers and channel low after channel low .but although im not over the moon with the weather i dont go around trolling and causing bad feelings on the worlds top weather forum ,which is looked at by weather fanatics from all over the world .we all know that modells will flip all over the place from day today especially out past 144 hrs and when a good run is shown many of us do get excited and we post what we feel and what we sometimes see . it is a forum all view points taken and read ,if you dont like what you read pop over and see uncle BOB and Captain john .i will finish on topic and say that as this weekend aproaches i think the modells will all be singing together ,regards high pressure ,but at this time frame positioning regards next week is too far away .this is a great forum and learning centre but one hell of a rollercoaster ,cheers