Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Regardless of vagaries of the inter run variety, I've seen enough over the last day or two to be slightly more confident of heights *finally* getting a foothold around Greenland.

It's what I thought would happen, though I envisaged it somewhat earlier in the month than looks to be the case.

Even within the less 'eye candy' ish runs there is a clear trend to pull the PV away from its almost permanent winter residence and drop it somewhere to our NE. Provided we get the HP retrogression (which I think is likely), then I think a notable spell of late winter/early spring weather may be lurking just around the corner....

It's also probably wise to bear in mind the GFS will naturally wobble around from run to run owing to the movement of vortex around the top of Greenland; the upshot of this being due to naturally progressive nature of the model, LP systems may be greatly exaggerated and retrogression seemingly halted ala 12z.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Roadmap is good , no panic.

GFS en ensemble s 12z are lost in space.

A complete mess inside .

Nogaps en Gem en route !

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles

[Mair Snaw]

Been away for a few days as got really miffed with some troll posting on here, all calmed down now, just wanted to add re the binning of charts, ive seen this on here many times in this my first winter, i think its mainly been the GFS and more often than not its been when we have seen the GFS showing a massive storm out in the Atlantic, havnt had time to go back threw the threads but im pretty sure not one of these massive storms has verified yet, not saying this one wont but if the past GFS is anything to go by then bin this one, also its normally the experienced members on here that say bin it and they are normally right.

[lorenzo]

Folks, it is a model discussion forum, some prefer cold, some prefer mild, some prefer benign conditions, some raging storms, no-one endless anticyclonic gloom or rain, or very few..

People are people, and have emotional investment in their own preferred type of weather, this does not mean that they are writing deliberately to annoy or confuse, it is good to read people being passionate about the weather they enjoy.

Without that emotional investment then the interest of watching the models would become a sterile and clinical affair with some of the excitement muted.

In regards to 'binning' runs, if the run displays a know bias fault then yes it can be discounted. If this practice is good enough for the pro's at NOAA CPC then it's valid.

Here's to you all staying on board the roller coaster for maybe the last and best ride of this Winter..

[Spah1]

I have to agree - as a newbie it is very difficult to actually follow the models and peoples perceptions of them because dependant on people's bias they will find cold or mild whichever is their preference in that model - in fact as soon as you see the name of a poster you can pretty much work out what their post will say It would be a lot easier for those of us who are new on the boards to get a handle on the whole thing if the emotion was taken out of some of the posts and an unbiased opinion given.

Totally disagree. There are plenty of posts that give objective rational thoughts on the models that i enjoy reading. The odd subjective opinion and from time to time and heaven forbid maybe a bit of humour isn't out of place. Total lifeless objective model interpretation would get a little boring as long as people explain their thoughts with reason its ok in my book. How can you take emotion out of it when its what people enjoy doing.

[Polar Maritime]

12z ensembles

Could you explain to newbies what these chart's show ? Instead of just posting chart's.

[stodge]

I have to agree - as a newbie it is very difficult to actually follow the models and peoples perceptions of them because dependant on people's bias they will find cold or mild whichever is their preference in that model - in fact as soon as you see the name of a poster you can pretty much work out what their post will say It would be a lot easier for those of us who are new on the boards to get a handle on the whole thing if the emotion was taken out of some of the posts and an unbiased opinion given.

Unfortunately, we're not soulless robots and by definition it's impossible for every run to be equally credible (or incredible). On that basis, either every run would verify or they'd all be completely wrong in which case there'd be no point discussing them.

The analogy I would choose is studying horse racing form. The Models Handicap is open to 3-y-o of all ages and has three main form horses:

GFS by American Model out of Big Depression

UKMO by British made out of The One We Like

ECM by European Model out of What we Want to See

The three form horses all have different form on different surfaces and all have their strengths and weakenesses. On a zonality surface, GFS is the favourite but on more testing conditions such as blocking or an SSW downswelling, the formbook may have less value.

My point is that studying the models is like studying form - you get to "know" over time which one is reliable and which isn't. Those advocating the binning of the GFS 12Z operational output may be doing so because they don't like what it shows but they also have past form to go on.

Now you're more confused than before and my work here is done...

[Mucka]

A huge disagreement between ECM and GFS ensembles.

As has been said GFS can be very keen to send too much energy over the top in these situations and given ECM is backed to some extent by UKMO I would expect it (ECM) to show something similar to the morning run this evening though perhaps not quite as progressive with the HLB.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mucka

[TootyFruity]

Hi could someone please explain the charts / graphs above that Gavin posted sorry to be a pain x

Thanks

Edited February 12, 2013 by TootyFruity

[MR EXTREMES]

rather messy no clear cut evolution from gfs and ukmo i dont buy into cold end to winter cool settled with nite frost but nothing meaningful in terms of cold.

one more day of models and i be back in march to see how spring is gonna shape up.

[Mucka]

Hi could someone please explain the charts / graphs above sorry to be a pain x

Thanks

They are graphical representations of the ensemble suits of both GFS and ECM models.

Each run the operational starts with optimum starting data but there are also many more runs with slightly tweaked starting data and these make up the ensembles including the control runs. This is to test for confidence in the operational solution.

The graph forms either show 850 temps or 2m temps and each chart shows which it depicts.

On GFS the White line is the mean, the average of all the runs and each colour represents a different ensemble member.

On ECM the Operational is the red line and the mean the yellow with all the grey lines the other runs.

Hope this helps.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mucka

[MR EXTREMES]

rather messy no clear cut evolution from gfs and ukmo i dont buy into cold end to winter cool settled with nite frost but nothing meaningful in terms of cold.

one more day of models and i be back in march to see how spring is gonna shape up.

and the ecm seems like it wants to push low heights norheast which not very good.

Edited February 12, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Cheshire Freeze]

and the ecm seems like it wants to push low heights norheast which not very good.

At 120 you can see that the ECM is pushing energy N and S....splitting it if you like. Nowhere near as good as the 0z upto this point but not as bad as GFS

[Mucka]

and the ecm seems like it wants to push low heights norheast which not very good.

It is still a long way from GFS. Even at 96h we can see GFS is sending a lot more energy NE than ECM.

Edit

Crewe beat me to it.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

It is still a long way from GFS. Even at 96h we can see GFS is sending a lot more energy NE than ECM.

Yes we've been here before with energy distribution......yes, that's right, just last week. Seems some people have short memories.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There you go....much better than GFS at 144

Low in Atlantic weakening and tilting nicely ready for more pronounced height rises to our N at 168

Edited February 12, 2013 by CreweCold

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly a stronger trend of some potentially quite mild and possibly spring like temperatures this weekend with high pressure making it influence the further South and East you are. Not sure how much sunshine there be but I imagine east of high ground will be most favored for any sunshine.

May even see similar conditions to Feb 2008 with large temperature differences between day and night, don't rule out frost and fog coming into play also.

[MR EXTREMES]

and finally ive seen enough to convince me that winter has just about the final nail.

[Hotspur62]

It's funny how the latest GFS run is completely different to ECM after say 120hrs and that leads me to a question that maybe someone can answer me.I have only been on this forum since end Oct 2012 but throughout this winter upto 144hrs i feel that UKMO has performed consistently well and imo has outperformed both GFS and ECM.In relation to this, would the UKMO consider going out to say 240hrs as the amount of new technology they have would surely allow them to do this,say on a trial basis.Sorry abit off topic but something that i have been thinking about last couple of months.

Back to the models in short term and i think it is fascinating what the medium term future holds,i.e.dry,mild and settled,dry,cold and settled and lastly turning increasingly colder with chance of snow as month draws to a close.As has been said before,we wont know i feel till weekend so in the meantime i will sit back and enjoy this thread and the passion that we all have for the weather.

[TEITS]

and finally ive seen enough to convince me that winter has just about the final nail.

Sorry but you're completely misreading this chart.

The train from the E will be arriving shortly.

[chris55]

ECM 144, full of potential and along the smae lines as the 00z. I like it.

[Djdazzle]

and finally ive seen enough to convince me that winter has just about the final nail.

We've had some classic winter weather at the end of Feb and into March. Can you explain what your comment is based on, because I'm struggling to understand.

[Mucka]

ECM 144 obviously not as good as this mornings run but that was always likely to be the case, still a lot better than GFS and not far off UKMO though.

The good thing is that this discrepancy exists within the mid term and hi res so we have the UKMO for guidance as well.

Plenty of interest again at least, so long as there is potential for energy to try and undercut and not head NE a la GFS.

[london-snow]

Certainly a stronger trend of some potentially quite mild and possibly spring like temperatures this weekend with high pressure making it influence the further South and East you are. Not sure how much sunshine there be but I imagine east of high ground will be most favored for any sunshine.

May even see similar conditions to Feb 2008 with large temperature differences between day and night, don't rule out frost and fog coming into play also.

It does look however like a ' Blip ' with temperatures to drop down as we head into next week. But a decent weekend in store depending on your location.

All eyes to our e-ne after this though...