Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Methuselah]

50/90 cm!!! When will you start ramping?!!!!

I think it's colloquial Dutch for 'a slight dusting'?

[weather eater]

Certainly a more blocked and drier spell of weather coming up, The ECM now appears to be going for some sort of GH of the sort the GFS was hinting at a few days ago but has now dropped. Applying the logic of whatever the charts show in the 144hr range is going to change and likely substantially so, then I will believe it when I see it at 72hrs.

[Average Joe]

Bit of a lurker on here really but been reading every winter for at least the last 5 years. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen a Twitter update on here from Matt Hugo. From what I've seen over the winter, he flips and flops around as much as the models do. One minute it's going to be cold, the next an early spring and people seem to hang off every word he says.

To be honest that goes for a whole host of posters on here. This time yesterday morning 90% of posters were waving good bye to winter and spring was on its way, 24hrs later and we're suddenly looking at a deep freeze.

[chris55]

Nice ECM to wake up to, certainly keeps the interest. The wheels are in process as early as 120, with the nice Atlantic undercutter. Then at 144 in unison with a helpful Norwegian shortwave. Followed be a huge Greenland high. Classic stuff.

[Don]

To be honest that goes for a whole host of posters on here. This time yesterday morning 90% of posters were waving good bye to winter and spring was on its way, 24hrs later and we're suddenly looking at a deep freeze.

They don't call it the roller coaster ride for nothing! It would be nice to get a cold end to Winter and have a cold March for a change. At least, unlike last year save Summer synoptics for the Summer.... All to play for during the next few weeks. Does anyone know what the overnight updated ECM 32 is showing?

Edited February 12, 2013 by Don

[steelermark]

To be honest that goes for a whole host of posters on here. This time yesterday morning 90% of posters were waving good bye to winter and spring was on its way, 24hrs later and we're suddenly looking at a deep freeze.

Yeah, difference being most of the posters on here are amateur hobbyists not professionals unlike Matt. A tweet from yesterday suggesting the cold ensembles are looking even more "lonely" after this mornings charts looks completely wrong. Are we going to tweet Narnia is coming today?? Maybe, as London Snow said, the pro's should be less bullish about what they write on Twitter until confidence is higher. Especially this winter.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs and Ecm 00z soon become poles apart, let's start with the gfs, well we have a brief unsettled interlude in the next few days as the atlantic comes in after a spell of rain (freezing rain), sleet, snow spreading from west to east during wednesday and then a backwash of more showery wnwly winds for a time but pressure will then be rising from the south, the gfs shows pressure continuing to rise with a more benign pattern developing but with low pressure to the west of the uk, the west becoming mild with some rain at times but central and eastern uk predominantly dry with some sunshine and temps around 8-10c, nearer 11-12c over the far west and irish republic in a moist sswly flow, so the weekend would be mildish and fine for many, and next week would also be settled with temps close to average and cold enough for a touch of frost overnight, it is not until deep into FI that the gfs starts to show a more wintry pattern. As for the Ecm 00z, I will let the charts speak for themselves but a colder weekend than the gfs shows and then just look east, northeast and north for our weather next week and beyond, truly stunning wintry charts with severe frosts and lots of snow compared to the average/mild benign gfs.

Enjoy those ecm charts, I did

Edited February 12, 2013 by Frosty039

[Average Joe]

They don't call it the roller coaster ride for nothing! It would be nice to get a cold end to Winter and have a cold March for a change. At least, unlike last year save Summer synoptics for the Summer.... All to play for during the next few weeks. Does anyone know what the overnight updated ECM 32 is showing?

Personally speaking as long as it's dry I don't mind what we get. Everywhere's so utterly saturated that we need a prolonged dry spell.

[chris55]

UKMO along the same lines as the ECM as well,

Also 00z NAE shows that many could see some snow initially on Weds, a few cms perhaps before the rain moves in,

[TEITS]

To be honest that goes for a whole host of posters on here. This time yesterday morning 90% of posters were waving good bye to winter and spring was on its way, 24hrs later and we're suddenly looking at a deep freeze.

Indeed I and many others did, but I also mentioned the models are likely to flip flop around.

Despite some incredible synoptics from the ECM at +240 I shall refrain from paying too much attention to this. When I referred to the uncertainty in the output I was referring to how much influence our block to the NE will have. Well the answer is much greater influence and for the moment that is all im concentrating on. The next aspect of the model output that I shall be concentrating on is this SW that the ECM has now suggested twice to track SSW from Scandi to become centred over Holland at +192.

Really hope the ECM is correct because its rare when a cold outlook is being projected by the models that it suits all members locations. However that is the case with the ECM 0Z.

[Hagler]

Its all aboard the ECM train this morning!

On route we will be stopping at, Herewegoagain, excitedforum, modelflipflop, seethingmembers and our final destination is epicfail.

And the best thing is its all free.

CHOO CHOO.!

[stodge]

Morning all

Some excellent charts about this morning if you're a fan of settled, dry and cold (which I am) but less so if you want snow (not so bothered about that). As always, GFS takes the circuitous route to the Promised Land

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

The blocking regime well established on the 00Z Operational output. Continental Europe would be cold under this but of course the established pool of milder air plus the sea keeps UK temperatures at higher values (8c or thereabouts).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Yep, all pretty blocked and quiet. I wonder if we'll see some fog under this set-up which has been one of those features absent this winter. Under such a foggy regime it could be very cold by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

And so it begins... well, cooler at least for the SE with a light continental feed.

ECM does things rather differently, thanks oddly enough to a more active Atlantic and at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif the orientation of HP and LP systems is very different. The more active Atlantic LP shifts the HP further NE pulling in SSE winds over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

I'll take a chart like that any time in winter. The HP is able to undergo retrogression much earlier and this kind of chart was, I think, the sort of thing proponents of SSW were envisaging right back at New Year so, IF it verifies, huge plaudits to them.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I'm sure there will be plenty of drooling over this as well and I won't add to it.

Time also for some perspective - it's mid-late February but that doesn't mean you can't get snow or even near ice days by any stretch.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2006/march.html

There's a pretty cold March from the recent past as an example of what CAN happen. In my part of lowland East London, I've had four snowfalls this winter but none has lasted longer than 72 hours because I live in an urban heat island but I had snow that year and also in 2009 if memory serves.

If you live in the south and want ice days and feet of snow in March, you're going to be out of luck any year and every year. The one thing this morning's charts do NOT offer is raging zonality and nor do they offer an early spring which some people seem to want desperately. Oddly enough, this weekend could be quite pleasant but late Feb-early March has often delivered cold even in the mildest of winters and my money (and very nice money it is too) would be on some form of repetition.

How far into March any cold period will go I cannot say. In 2006 it lasted past mid-month in many places and we have perhaps been spoilt by a number of warm March months (often coming off colder early winters).

[Barry12]

Until it get's to +72 we have all learned to take it with a pinch of salt, nice Synoptics though.

P.S What would the uppers have to be like to get Ice days in March?

[xioni]

Impressive ECM op runs and more and more of its ens members have started trending that way

I am surprised but I am still cautious as I think it's still easy for the ridge to end up much closer to the UK

[johnholmes]

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

this shows how the two models in the further range treaat the upper ride and surface high at 12z yesterday and 00z today.

Some similarity in that the surface high is certainly not around 50N but nearer 60N in each case.

Detail of course changes.

looking at the 500mb outputs and NOAA last evening kept the high level blocking shifting it east and n of 60N, ECMWF this morning shows it west of UK and Iceland NNW with an actual ridge. GFS has climbed back on board the more blocked idea with an upper ridge over the UK and NNE.

So on this basis IF all 3 keep this idea supports the link above of blocking somewhere north of the UK but uncertain yet for NW or NE of the UK by T+240?

Any of them would suggest no early spring for the latter part of February.

Edited February 12, 2013 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Are we still on for the 16th-24th as the period of note this winter?

Yes and extending beyond, [but 2nd period after 16-22 Jan was the 1st] . Very pleasing ECM, GFS is shaping up ok too. I'm interested in this week too as it seems this LP isn't going to push through east as far as was progged a couple of days ago.

BFTP

Edited February 12, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is my review of the 00z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for this morning Tuesday February 12th 2013.

All models show a very slack and cold airflow pattern over the UK today as pressure gently rises. Most areas will be dry but a few snow flurries are possible just about anywhere. As a Southerly wind stirs the atmosphere later tonight in the West clouds may break up somewhat with rather more of a frost likely. Tomorrow then shows a Southerly flow developing everywhere as a depression to the NW steers a trough slowly East into the West of the UK. Rain will arrive too by the middle of tomorrow and spread East across all areas later and overnight turning readily to snow in many Central and Northern areas for a time before turning back to rain as milder air moves across the UK by Thursday. Winds will of veered towards the NW by then and the weather become drier with just scattered rain showers in the North while the South sees the rest of Thursday and Friday as largely dry days with brighter spells. Through the weekend a lot of dry weather will be around but with weak fronts moving into the UK from the SW some light rain and drizzle is possible, especially on Saturday. A less cold weekend is likely for all but sunshine amounts will be limited.

Then into next week GFS brings High pressure into the UK from the East and things dry up and settle down with rather more sunshine by day but with patchy frost and fog developing overnight. Later in the week and weekend the dry weather continues with the High drifting more towards the NW with colder Continental air drifting into some Eastern and Southern areas though it would stay largely dry innitially before wintry showers become more prevalent for Eastern areas later under a Northerly feed of air.

The GFS Ensembles show a milder interlude on the way before the trend towards rather colder weather develops into the second half of the run. Rainfall will be small for most areas as High pressure at first to the South and then more towards the North reduces penetration from the effects of Atlantic depressions. There is a large spread as usual in members later in the run with the operational on the cold side of the pack later on.

The Jet Stream currently arching over the Atlantic collapses SE over the UK in the next couple of days after which the flow becomes weak and diffuse in our corner of the World before rejuvenating in the Western Atlantic moving East towards Spain with a weaker limb riding North through the Atlantic.

UKMO shows a large High pressure area covering much of Europe to start next week with a Low pressure area in the Atlantic with troughs waiting in the wings on it's Southern flank. The UK would see light to moderate South or SE winds with dry weather for most in normal temperature values with somewhat colder air from the East gradually infiltrating into the SE of the UK on Monday.

GEM shows High pressure too though it's centre is far more fluid in its movements though generally just to the East of the UK. It would be generally dry and bright at times with overnight frost and fog patches though daytimes would see temperatures generally up to normal values in light winds from a South or SE direction for much of the time.

ECM today shows High pressure in the North Sea on Monday with Low pressure in the Atlantic with a SE flow over the UK feeding gently colder conditions NW from Europe through the day but with some bright and sunny conditions too. Through the following days High pressure extends to Scandinavia and more importantly to Greenland serving up a recipe for some very cold air to develop, first from the East and then the NE as Low pressure is steered SE over the Atlantic into Spain and South through Scandinavia towards Europe leaving the UK in a very cold and potentially snowy weather pattern to end the run with a bitterly cold NNE wind.

In Summary today the weather looks like being High pressure driven over the coming couple of weeks. We all have to get through one more spell of rain and snow in the North before things turn rather milder as High pressure builds from the South. The behaviour of that High becomes paramount then as to where we go with the UK weather over the coming period. Most models indicate a migration to the North or East is likely and ECM whole heartedly takes it North where coupled with an intense Greenland High late in its run brings the UK into the freezer which may be a bit extreme in reality. However, ECM continues to toy with cold synoptics in the latter stages of it's run and shouldn't be discounted with the favoured solution ending up somewhere between what's shown this morning. So plenty of dry weather in the coming weeks with, after a milder interlude a trend towards rather colder weather again with frosty nights but some compensatory sunny days and who knows some more wintriness later.

[Liam J]

P.S What would the uppers have to be like to get Ice days in March?

The temp at Houghall County Durham on the 4th March 1947 was -21.1c from this chart.

Daily maximums from this were between 0c and -3c over England and as low as -4c over parts of Scotland and Wales.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Liam J

[Frosty.]

and our final destination is epicfail.

CHOO CHOO.!

or maybe the ecm will be nearer the outcome next week, anything similar to the ecm 00z will be epic success, as for the gfs 00z, it just wastes the last few weeks of winter with a benign mildish anticyclonic pattern.

Edited February 12, 2013 by Frosty039

[Duane S.]

Absolute beauty of an ECM (again) this morning. By D5 the tipping point has been passed and from that chart on we are heading towards a very blocked scenario with the possibility thereafter of a severe cold and snowy spell a week later.

I don't find the GFS too disimilar by D5 so if you take into account its reluctance to undercut energy we could well see another GFS / Euro standoff develop this week and the GFS doing its usual run-by-run slight edging back towards the ECM. The question will be of course has the ECM over-egged the blocking and we end up with a halfway house and a weak continental flow for a few days? One things for sure, again, the ECM is onto something it it will be a case of what are the spoilers. The draining of the Greenland vortex could be the crucial factor to this occuring this time around.

As for certain posters waving goodbye to winter. Happens every year (often in December!?!), It must be a subconscious reverse psychology / coping mechansim thingy going on. Too many here expecting the extreme spells in 09/10 and 10/11 to happen every winter and subsequent disappointments when it doesn't occur have taken their toll. There have been many recent winters when prospects of a late winter spell have looked far far gloomier than this year. All to play for a few weeks yet!

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

NAO !

End the chart for wednesday snow , NAE/EFS

[Methuselah]

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on HP setting-up further west, as we enter Spring; not because I can 'read' weather charts better than anyone-else, or have 'secret' knowledge that is denied to others, but because it often happens that way...And, because the MetO (who are best-placed to judge these things, IMO) seem to be suggesting something broadly similar...

Who exactly was 'waving good-bye to winter', back in December? I must be losing my memory...

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

EC eps , for Noord - Holland .

Ec oper has some back up from ensemble .

But look at the controll run.The blue line .

[shaky]

NAO !

End the chart for wednesday snow , NAE/EFS

Very good charts youve posted there ryan!!hopefully we can see more upgrades for wednesdays snowfall!!do you think there is still time for an all snow event?

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

this shows how the two models in the further range treaat the upper ride and surface high at 12z yesterday and 00z today.

Some similarity in that the surface high is certainly not around 50N but nearer 60N in each case.

Detail of course changes.

looking at the 500mb outputs and NOAA last evening kept the high level blocking shifting it east and n of 60N, ECMWF this morning shows it west of UK and Iceland NNW with an actual ridge. GFS has climbed back on board the more blocked idea with an upper ridge over the UK and NNE.

So on this basis IF all 3 keep this idea supports the link above of blocking somewhere north of the UK but uncertain yet for NW or NE of the UK by T+240?

Any of them would suggest no early spring for the latter part of February.

indeed john seems like a sting in the ecm tail for winter and would certainly drop us into the freezer.

what is intresting though is the jma gem nogaps and gfs dont support the ecm idear so if we take the middle ground solution average to slightly below would be the likely outcome but if the ecm on its own it would certainly perhaps produce a pretty cold end to winter not far of the coldest so far id of thought.

but im still unconvinced as this winter has been a total nightmare but the overall theme across the board is a cool settled or possible cold with snow with much better uppers on the ecm.