Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

The album Please Please me was released 50 years ago today. Apparently the temperature when the Beatles came to record it was -12C

I've seen a few model runs over this winter which have given the promise of these temps being seen in london....but none that have really come anywhere near verifying to that extent.

It's been a good winter as far as I'm concerned. Ended up with a few cms of snow this morning, but talking to my 11yo son he said it wasn't much! Well during the early part of his life i thought his chances of even seeing as much snow as this morning once in a winter were remote....I think he's a little bit spoiled over these past few years :-)

We probably all are, It's almost as if it needs to be 1963 again to satisfy us. I think it came very close to delivering in some ways, buy the failure to ever get some really consistent cold uppers over Europe in the end has done for us as far as that scenario is concerned.

i think the models will meet a consensus in their runs and we'll end up having a drift from winter into spring.....and that's the way it should be imo. Always hated those spring-like early February's when we were being warned it was the new norm and the result of global warming kicking in.

I don't think it is necessarily the need for a 1963 every year, more just a desire to experience such an epic winter, at least once in your life. Some very lucky people have lived through both of the last two big ones and we are probably over due another, perhaps 2013/14 could be it, who knows!

Personally, I really loathe going through winter without any seasonal weather, so this one has been better, but far from a classic - It would be great finish it off with one huge snow event, even if it is short lived...

Sorry it's off topic mods

[damianslaw]

ECM remains bullish in its blocked cold outlook, allowing only a temporary milder atlantic interlude mid week before we see another easterly drift over the weekend.

GFS surprisingly is also showing a sluggish atlantic becoming unstuck against heights to our east. UKMO less keen as more energy is forecast to move north over the scandi-euro high.

As stated much will depend on the track of Wednesday's low.

The ECM outlook does remind me a little of Feb 2005... I'll leave you with that thought.

[-uksnow-]

GFS at 120

ECM at 120

UKMO at 120

ECM and GFS better than UKMO arent they? They look virtually identical...

[Timmytour]

Have to agree Yawn.. Just the same as the current spell--

Twittergate IIRC ----- Not going to happen because ensembles & MOGREPS dont have it.-

Wake & smell the OP coffee.

I recognise that tone.... it's the same i sensed at the beginning of January....it's the same I sensed in the last few days of January.....both preceding subsequent ten-day build up periods to a wintry outbreak!! Surely it can't happn a third time this winter......????

[johnholmes]

Some may disagree but looking at the link below and ECMWF is more consistent through its run to T+240 than GFS is, by that I mean the 00z and 12z runs, ECMWF follows much more closely on both runs.

Just what that means in terms of the surface weather is yet to be proven but it does lend weight to the general idea from longer range models of a more settled spell with an upper ridge over/close by the UK and a surface high probably somewhere north rather than south of the UK. By how much east or west is rather uncertain.

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

also picking up on a comment that GFS is perhaps performing better than ECMWF this winter-not a view I share and the stats tend to support that.

I only have the 6 day verification stats for 500mb for the northern hemisphere but only in January did GFS slightly outperform ECMWF. In December and so far this month ECMWF led by a fair margin.

Edited February 11, 2013 by johnholmes

[-uksnow-]

I personaly think the ECM has got this one again

If we look at the t144 charts for the ECM and GFS

ECM..

GFS..

They are in good agreement of the overall pattern apart from that low exiting NE America next weekend, but with the GFS's well know tendancys to over do lows only to 'depower' them nearer the time it is plausable to presume (for now) the GFS is doing this again, causing the reason for the difference between GFS and ECM at this time frame. It also must be noted the ECM has performed well in the longer range recently, picking up the slider without good support from its own ensembles and other models and running with it.

UKMO at 144 brings us this

the pattern is further east and the low in the mid atlantic is a far worse shape, all flabber and plain ugly.. perhaps the lower resolution is the cause for a less 'detailed' pattern at this time frame, i dont know... anyhow lets just see how this develops..

[Tom Montalbano]

Bit of a lurker on here really but been reading every winter for at least the last 5 years. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen a Twitter update on here from Matt Hugo. From what I've seen over the winter, he flips and flops around as much as the models do. One minute it's going to be cold, the next an early spring and people seem to hang off every word he says.

I do think this is true but to be fair to him I also think that he is only commenting on what the ECM model is showing and they arent his own views., per se. It just illustrates what a difficult time the models have had this winter!

Cheers,

Tom.

[Weathizard]

Pretty nice pub run. Not as good as the EC but still very good. Cut off high to our north with lower heights to the south is always a nice synoptic route to cold after day 7 on both ECM and GFS. Winter not over yet.

BLOODY NORA

Edited February 11, 2013 by Weathizard

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

There , you see ? look good there he is ! He is coming southwards , the Nordpool air !

Very major evolution from the GFS 18z.

Also the CMA is cold.

[Mucka]

Miles out description of the ECM

BFTP

Really?

Why don't you give me a good laugh before the ECM London ensembles come out and tell me what you think it shows.

Coldest day will be day 10 at around 3C for London

Edited February 11, 2013 by Mucka

[snowking]

I do think this is true but to be fair to him I also think that he is only commenting on what the ECM model is showing and they arent his own views., per se. It just illustrates what a difficult time the models have had this winter!

Cheers,

Tom.

A professional forecaster is only as good as his/her tools (in this case - models). The slight luxury we have on here is that we can bounce ideas off one another and theorise based on gut instinct, historical occurrences etc. Whilst pro forecasters will do this to a certain extent, I always get the feeling that, should something go boobs up in the forecast, if they have followed what the forecast models have been showing, they have some reasoning to provide as evidence as to why a forecast has gone wrong.

If they decide to take the route we sometimes do, and it all ends up going wrong, then they have a lot of answers to provide to clients/the public with nothing to present.

Of course we also have to bear in mind it is a rather scientific discipline, and in my experience, scientists tend to be rather black and white about things. This could be described as a failing in some situations (e.g. this weekend where it was fairly apparent a long time before the other models began to turn that the ECMWF had been right for several runs, but with a consensus against it, they had to back the consensus), but that is the way they have chosen to work!

Matt can only provide the face value facts of what he sees in the models, and given the range of data he can access which we are unable to, the contributions of him and Ian F to this forum are invaluable IMO. It doesn't mean they will always be correct (as i'm sure they will be the first to admit) but they give us an insight which we would otherwise be without

SK

Edited February 11, 2013 by snowking

[TEITS]

Fasinating what this evenings model runs.

This morning the 0Z GFS had the UK under very mild SW,lys next week and the 0Z GEFS ensembles were very poor with hardly any cold runs. Now just 14hrs after viewing the 0Z GFS the output is suggesting a cold E,ly with even snow showers.

So really at this stage its difficult to make an accurate prediction for next week. I was inclined to back the GFS due to the 12Z ECM but then I remembered the UKMO output. Probably best to sit on the fence until tomorrows 0Zs.

I will add a great deal of uncertainty what may occur in the NE of the US this weekend. My brother is popping to New York this weekend and im concerned about another possible snowstorm for this area. Much confusion at the moment whether this storm will develop.

[La Bise]

Indeed SK, Matt works for the AA, he can't go on posting "Boom!" when a chart in deep FI shows something cute or go on wild tangents as it can be done on here. I follow him, he is NW based and he provides good updates for my area.

[AWD]

EC Op run wasn't an outlier, colder than the mean but still supported;

Incidentally the GFS Op follows the mean throughout.

Wind;

Perhaps too strong with the easterly?

Rainfall;

Edited February 11, 2013 by AWD

[fergieweather]

Indeed SK, Matt works for the AA, he can't go on posting "Boom!" when a chart in deep FI shows something cute or go on wild tangents as it can be done on here. I follow him, he is NW based and he provides good updates for my area.

Matt works for Metra, the NZ-owned forecasting company, and he's highly rated by my UKMO colleagues. Moreover, his brief description of how the 12z EC Op sits versus the MSLP cluster postage stamps issued out to t+240 is a wholly fair assessment. I fail to see why anyone would seek to snipe at him when he's merely reflecting a dichotomy over how blocking might take shape and in turn, the scope of how pronounced a cold feed into UK might become. The clusters offer a raft of potential outcomes, as might be expected at that range.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Really?

Why don't you give me a good laugh before the ECM London ensembles come out and tell me what you think it shows.

Coldest day will be day 10 at around 3C for London

Who gives a damn about the ensembles which are as accurate as a singular run this winter...awful, anyway you were talking about the ECM run itself. If the following is +3c for London then I'll eat my hat...and its day nine....day 8 is cold enough.

Now as one can see, what the models showed 00z to now are so different....which will be right. We all know where my money is BUT as TEITS points out it ain't settled yet.

BFTP

Edited February 11, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

This is another version of last week re the undercutter op against the ens. Pro forecasters cannot lend support to the operational at day 7+ unless it has ens support. We, of course, dont have anyone to answer to if it goes arwy. I suspect next week will be a good deal more wintry than the ens currently see. if i'm wrong, means nowt.

[snowking]

By the way, regarding the NAVGEM/NOGAPS transition, some good information here:

http://www.usgodae.org/navgem.html

The key bits:

Feb 13, 2013 - (Dual OPS) Starting with the 13/12Z run, both NAVGEM and NOGAPS data will be available to operational customers on the operational servers.

Mar 13, 2013 - transition from NOGAPS to NAVGEM complete. NOGAPS model data will no longer be available to FNMOC Customers.

PLEASE NOTE: After March 13, 2013, the NOGAPS model will no longer be run as the Navy's operational global model.

Hopefully, Sylvain might be able to let us know when Meteociel will be transitioning

SK

Edited February 11, 2013 by snowking

[weather eater]

Some may disagree but looking at the link below and ECMWF is more consistent through its run to T+240 than GFS is, by that I mean the 00z and 12z runs, ECMWF follows much more closely on both runs.

Just what that means in terms of the surface weather is yet to be proven but it does lend weight to the general idea from longer range models of a more settled spell with an upper ridge over/close by the UK and a surface high probably somewhere north rather than south of the UK. By how much east or west is rather uncertain.

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

also picking up on a comment that GFS is perhaps performing better than ECMWF this winter-not a view I share and the stats tend to support that.

I only have the 6 day verification stats for 500mb for the northern hemisphere but only in January did GFS slightly outperform ECMWF. In December and so far this month ECMWF led by a fair margin.

In Regards the ECM and GFS, I would never rate the GFS over the ECM, my gripe with the ECM is that it over cooks easterly’s. by initially making them potent affairs then backtracking as we get into Hi-Res, I find the GFS doesn’t do that as often, it may be equally if not poorer in whatever its projection is, but its less inclined to overcook easterly’s.

[Panayiotis]

Just looked at the models and they all look good for a dry but cold pattern around D7/8. I did a post the other day,saying that the low out in the Atlantic will be key at 144hrs. We want this to stall and ridge the Azores north for a temporary warm period (lasting 1-2days) as heights move north and as it does so high pressure builds to the north putting us an E/SE wind.

Models at 144hrs:

As you can see, the 'best' lows at sending heights north are the ones which are just S of Greenland and are the most closest to Greenland. We want the advection of the warmer air to be as steep as possible, if the angle is shallow eg BOM and UKMO high pressure will not build to north and the high pressure over Europe/Scandi will sink taking us back to zonal conditions.

Models at 192hrs:

As you can see the BOM which is similar to the UKMO (because it uses the same data at the UKMO) is much flatter and zonal conditions will soon follow, however the models which send heights to the north give us a easterly and high pressure to the north.

Models at 240hrs (just to show how they progress from 192hrs) :

From this, we should all keep eyes on the low in the Atlantic as this will be the key to how our winter ends.The models which have the steepest angle of advection of warm air to the north, end with the most interesting synoptics. With the ECM,GFS,CMA and CFS onboard I would expect the other models to follow.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Panayiotis

[karlos1983]

I like the look of the ECM, GFS has similarities, I'd take them both now.

I will move forward with extreme caution though, I 100% respect Matt H and Ian F's input. In my opinion, they have generally been bang on this winter, I've been really impressed with UKMO model over recent weeks, when it matters its been on the money. Anyway, just my 2 pennies worth, tend not to comment in here as I've found the regionals very accommodating recently and posts made in here are deemed "not worthy" by some and quickly disappear. Luckily I have some top posters from here in my regional.

Cheers Karlos

[steelermark]

Matt works for Metra, the NZ-owned forecasting company, and he's highly rated by my UKMO colleagues. Moreover, his brief description of how the 12z EC Op sits versus the MSLP cluster postage stamps issued out to t+240 is a wholly fair assessment. I fail to see why anyone would seek to snipe at him when he's merely reflecting a dichotomy over how blocking might take shape and in turn, the scope of how pronounced a cold feed into UK might become. The clusters offer a raft of potential outcomes, as might be expected at that range.

It wasn't a snipe as such. I haven't the faintest clue how you and the others go and unravel what the models have shown this winter. But, some people take what he put's on Twitter as gospel and then go declaring the next ice age or a global warming induced early spring. I know this is more the Twitter readers problem than Matt's, but I was merely trying to point out that just because Matt says the EC32 says this or the MOGREPS says that, it doesn't mean that is what will happen. Look at the models this morning to the models tonight as a perfect example.

[The Northern Ramper]

Who gives a damn about the ensembles which are as accurate as a singular run this winter...awful, anyway you were talking about the ECM run itself. If the following is +3c for London then I'll eat my hat...and its day nine....day 8 is cold enough.

Now as one can see, what the models showed 00z to now are so different....which will be right. We all know where my money is BUT as TEITS points out it ain't settled yet.

BFTP

Are we still on for the 16th-24th as the period of note this winter?

[Southern Storm]

Just thought I would re-post this from GP as it seems to fit in with what is being reflected in some of the models tonight

Especially the part in bold, give or take a couple of days!

Posted by Glacier Point on 03 February 2013 - 13:22 in Model Forum Archive

GEFS mean becoming really quite bullish here. Developing anomalous ridge in the North Atlantic (teleconnected to strongly amplified ridge over Alaska) and increasing tendency for +ve heights across the north eastern quadrant. Model seems to be dropping big hints of another injection of westerly inertia into the Pacific sector with consequent downstream ampification. (remember the GWO options - rinse and repeat phases 5-6-7-8 or head down into phase 1?).

We remain under the influence of a cold trough throughout. Out to day 10 and temps below average acoss Europe. GEFS has Switzerland as the core 'low' at 9C below average, but values 2-4C below for the UK. T2 analysis (and cyclonic signal) suggesting little diurnal range - read convective and frontal potential + below average temperatures (do the maths).

If the GEFS mean is anything to go by, there will be another easterly attempt within the 15-20 day timeframe (that's in addition to the one now being modelled) and wouldn't be suprised at all if the models suddenly latched onto a piece of pv dropping round the back of the ridge over Svalbard in the 8-12 day timeframes.

I think I would like the same crystal ball he's using

Edited February 12, 2013 by thunderman24

[london-snow]

Matt works for Metra, the NZ-owned forecasting company, and he's highly rated by my UKMO colleagues. Moreover, his brief description of how the 12z EC Op sits versus the MSLP cluster postage stamps issued out to t+240 is a wholly fair assessment. I fail to see why anyone would seek to snipe at him when he's merely reflecting a dichotomy over how blocking might take shape and in turn, the scope of how pronounced a cold feed into UK might become. The clusters offer a raft of potential outcomes, as might be expected at that range.

Simple answer for me = Pro forecasters to keep information private or between fellow pros & not allow public to follow confidential information until confidence reaches 80% or above.

To be honest i am getting a tad fed up of people taking snippets of pro forecasters twitter & posting on n~w to support their case be it mild or cold.

I feel that it does more harm than good for pros to post their thoughts via twitter & can lead to their reputation being put under the microscope.

Their are a lot of people who follow certain pros via twitter and a lot of people who hang on what they say. Its when they get it wrong people are so easily to criticise them.

No matter what data you may have available at your disposal you are always going to be behind the eight ball especially if you are commenting at mid ~ long range.