Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Froze were the Days]

Are you saying 192 is no good??

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?14-0

That is an epic chart if your looking for brutal cold & snow.-

A stalled out front as snow over the SW retreating back SW as cold builds again-

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?14-0

I honestly think people think it will snow for days on end in the models.

For sustaining cold for longer I just feel lower heights to our south would see heights build towards Greenland - 192 is fine for cold and the south west in regards to snow, what happens post 240z I'd say would be a break down from the south.

[Frosty.]

I think that's a very optimistic view. Not saying it won't be cold or their wont be snow for some, but the range we are talking about is far too far away to have any confidence. History tells us that things get watered down nearer the time and that sometimes stunning looking charts give cold dry dull days.

Just adding this for perspective, rather than dissing your post.

Let's just say there will be very cold uppers to tap into from the Easterly as the ecm shows tonight, and it's still early days so we could easily see upgrades once the Easterly digs in, the snow would soon follow if uppers are sub -10 T850 hPA. I'm hoping the high will end up further north so we will all feel the easterly chill.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Haven't had time to post tonight as I'm out with the mrs but just quickly .

The ECM is amazing . No downgrade . To see easterlies coming into the more reliable range is nice to see for the first time this winter.

To read ones say its a downgrade is laughable .

If your after bitter cold and widespread snow , tonight's models should make you as excited as I was when I lost my virginity !

[Long haul to mild]

I see the wind-up merchants are out on here tonight.

Funny how those posters tell us that a fantastic snowy chart won't verify at T240 but as soon as one appears at that range that just MIGHT suggest a hint of a sinking high or lack of a Greenland block, then the "downgrades" have begun and it's bound to happen!

Good job there are loads of respected people on here whose opinions and analysis trump any attempts at trolling by others.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[helen47]

ECM short ensemble

A cold spell is now almost certain for a few days minimum

Notice the rise right at the end from the members we'll need to wait for the full ensemble to see where it takes us longer term

Precipitation is almost non existent next week which will be welcome news by many

hi im new here so go easy they are for holland if the high goes to greenland then wouldnt that raise the 850s in holland but not the uk???

[Spurry]

Haven't had time to post tonight as I'm out with the mrs but just quickly .

The ECM is amazing . No downgrade . To see easterlies coming into the more reliable range is nice to see for the first time this winter.

To read ones say its a downgrade is laughable .

If your after bitter cold and widespread snow , tonight's models should make you as excited as I was when I lost my virginity !

Can't say i was excited about you losing yours, but if it was anything like mine ,then i expect we're in for another let down(weatherwise!!)

i'm not sure that we'r in the reliable timeframe yet to be honest , the way this winter has been ,i will be reasonably confident when we're at +24z

Edited February 14, 2013 by Spurry

[SMU]

For sustaining cold for longer I just feel lower heights to our south would see heights build towards Greenland - 192 is fine for cold and the south west in regards to snow, what happens post 240z I'd say would be a break down from the south.

No worries- Yes ideally pressure angled towards greenland supports energy going under --

However we see the 'odd' ECM run going off on a tangent past 168- it did this 2 days ago past 168..-

I think the safe zone is now very cold from the east or south east at day 5. Its the final allignment will decide whether we get snow-

but we know all that.

S

[Blizzardof82]

Haven't had time to post tonight as I'm out with the mrs but just quickly .

The ECM is amazing . No downgrade . To see easterlies coming into the more reliable range is nice to see for the first time this winter.

To read ones say its a downgrade is laughable .

If your after bitter cold and widespread snow , tonight's models should make you as excited as I was when I lost my virginity !

I can't recall getting excited when you lost your virginity, from an IMBY point of view I am happy with tonight's output. The cold has not arrived yet and people are looking for breakdowns in FI, lets get it in first and I am sure there will be more twists than a Chubby Checker song before it gets here.

[SnowObsessor90]

Disagree ~

Most peoples concerns regarding the ecm comes in mid~late fi where the retrogression fails. However as i said previously we do have time on our side & are yet to see where the op sits in the ensembles.

What we have is a very decent easterly now edging into the reliable time frame thus far it has not been watered down which is great. Of course more runs needed but if your in the east or south east you really cannot ask for much more as things stand.

The ECM is still good on face of it but as has been pointed once you start to loose some of those solid foundations the margin for error becomes ever so lower, we got lucky last Jan in that respect with a few decent frontal events and even then the snowcover started melting at the first opportunity due to it not being overly cold, personally I'd prefer something more locked in and prolonged, that way everybody benefits.

Edited February 14, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Stoxs]

strikes me that this winter is showing the ECM is as OTT with an easterly feed as the GFS is with the westerly feed.

Yes this one progged is different in many ways but got that feeling it wont be as fantastic as the charts are showing at this time.

Nice to see an easterly feed without an atlantic HP holding up any progress.

Thinking another close but no cigar is on its way.

Looking forward to some dry weather though before mid week next week.

[Polar Maritime]

Let's just say there will be very cold uppers to tap into from the Easterly as the ecm shows tonight, and it's still early days so we could easily see upgrades once the Easterly digs in, the snow would soon follow if uppers are sub -10 T850 hPA. I'm hoping the high will end up further north so we will all feel the easterly chill.

Aye Frosty, ECM is holding firm once again, very cold uppers giving severe frost's for all the UK, lot's more detail changes to come as usual, but cold/v cold is almost, or dare I say it... nailed ?

GFS will should make interesting viewing tonight

Edited February 14, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

ECM postage stamps at 168hrs show variations on generally the same theme with high pressure over Scandi and troughing to the west and sw.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013021412!!/

Edited February 14, 2013 by nick sussex

[Liam J]

Haven't had time to post tonight as I'm out with the mrs but just quickly .

The ECM is amazing . No downgrade . To see easterlies coming into the more reliable range is nice to see for the first time this winter.

To read ones say its a downgrade is laughable .

If your after bitter cold and widespread snow , tonight's models should make you as excited as I was when I lost my virginity !

Oh god I was so happy when you finally popped your cherry!

[Froze were the Days]

ECM postage stamps at 168hrs show variations on generally the same theme with high pressure over Scandi and troughing to the west and sw.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2013021412!!/

Thanks for that - general trend for a cold south easterly wind with pressure low to the south west or 20 members with stronger heights to the north east and an easterly to persist ( post Thursday), either scenario is not bad.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Paul_1978]

I see the wind-up merchants are out on here tonight.

Funny how those posters tell us that a fantastic snowy chart won't verify at T240 but as soon as one appears at that range that just MIGHT suggest a hint of a sinking high or lack of a Greenland block, then the "downgrades" have begun and it's bound to happen!

Good job there are loads of respected people on here whose opinions and analysis trump any attempts at trolling by others.

Indeed. The 'block members' feature is proving to be very useful!

[Summer Sun]

ECM full ensemble once again tonight has plenty of milder members longer term after a cool down for around 5 days roughly

BBC weather auto maps now showing an easterly from the 19th to 23rd inclusive for Darlo

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/2651513?day=3

click further ahead

Edited February 14, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM postage stamps at 168hrs show variations on generally the same theme with high pressure over Scandi and troughing to the west and sw.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2013021412!!/

Good agreement up to T168 then, happy with that.

Do people really want to be taking anything beyond this seriously. The output beyond this has varied anyway from Greenland high to Greenland vortex and in between

[Bristawl Si]

For sustaining cold for longer I just feel lower heights to our south would see heights build towards Greenland - 192 is fine for cold and the south west in regards to snow, what happens post 240z I'd say would be a break down from the south.

2 to 3 days of v cold with a decent snow event will do me for late Feb - esp if it turned out to be a south west 'classic'!

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

THe long ENS- the mild ones will almost certainly be the ones ( like the GFS) who dont 'see' the shortwave track in the first place.

so SE winds moving round to Southerly....

S

[nick sussex]

Thanks for that - general trend for a cold south easterly wind with pressure low to the south west or 20 members with stronger heights to the north east and an easterly to persist ( post Thursday), either scenario is not bad.

Its a shame we don't have access to the full postage stamps upto 240hrs, then we could see what happens re any trough disruption to the west.

In terms of uppers again some uncertainty there and also strength of the flow which will effect convection and how far inland any showers get.

Detail for that will have to wait a few more runs.

[Stu_London]

Let's just say there will be very cold uppers to tap into from the Easterly as the ecm shows tonight, and it's still early days so we could easily see upgrades once the Easterly digs in, the snow would soon follow if uppers are sub -10 T850 hPA. I'm hoping the high will end up further north so we will all feel the easterly chill.

No

Lets just say that given the general performance of the models lately that we don't even know if there will be an easterly yet.

if there is, then lets worry about the uppers.

Taking events modelled at +120 and beyond as given, amounts to shameless ramping and does these boards no good whatsoever

[Frosty.]

Aye Frosty, ECM is holding firm once again, very cold uppers giving severe frost's for all the UK, lot's more detail changes to come as usual, but cold/v cold is almost, or dare I say it... nailed ?

GFS will should make interesting viewing tonight

Yes it's good to see the gfs finally jumping onboard the siberian express.

[Froze were the Days]

Its a shame we don't have access to the full postage stamps upto 240hrs, then we could see what happens re any trough disruption to the west.

In terms of uppers again some uncertainty there and also strength of the flow which will effect convection and how far inland any showers get.

Detail for that will have to wait a few more runs.

Yeah agreed - I like those postage stamps always gives you a 'feel' to the percentages involved on that particular run, a few members going for the GFS consensus and more of a southerly at that stage but the odds are on a continental feed of sorts but as said how cold and the direction is a bit far out at the moment.

[Frosty.]

No

Lets just say that given the general performance of the models lately that we don't even know if there will be an easterly yet.

if there is, then lets worry about the uppers.

Taking events modelled at +120 and beyond as given, amounts to shameless ramping and does these boards no good whatsoever

The models have to get it right sometime, why not this time? good agreement we will be into continental winds by early next week and then get progressively colder..the sky is the limit if we get a long draw easterly locked in pattern.

[Carlrg]

No undercutting lows up to the 20th on any of these models. The HP to just stalls them and keeps them in the atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=6&size=0

HP will have to move to our North to drag in the cold from the East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=180&size=0

Personally i think that Hp over us is going to take some shifting. On the up side a dryer spell will be welcomed by our rain soaked little island.