March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Paul T]

Just for parity, here is last March's review from the METO.

They, again, use the UK WIDE MEAN temp, not the CET. So the statistics they use for mild months is also used for cold months;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2012/march.html

I personally use the CET temp for my comparision, as its more relevent to where I live as it doesnt take into account Northern Ireland and scotland, which are frankly irrelevent to temps and conditions in Bristol.

Paul

[DAVID SNOW]

I don't know why there is a song and dance about this. The Met Office is a UK organisation, it forecasts for the UK It will give info and talk at the UK level. What does one expect? If it were to give info at say the CET level it would then be accused that its a southern organisation, bias to the south, not interest in the north etc.

Well considering the cet has been running sinse 1659,thats one hell of a south bias....But anyhow,they have used it before but on this occasion chose not to,fare enough,but when the next overly warm month crops up, you know, hot in the south,not so in the north,lets see if the cet value gets wheeled out,only time will tell....

[Midlands Ice Age]

I did a quick analysis of the estimated versus final datasets for March 2013.

It shows 21 days in which the eatimated was higher than the final.

5 days when it was lower (2 quites large anomalies)

and 5 days when it was the same (defined as +- 0.01C), so overall not too bad.

It will be interesting to see how tis varies in a mild/warm month.

Midlands Ice Age

[Weather-history]

Well considering the cet has been running sinse 1659,

Can I be pedantic here, the CET hasn't actually been running since 1659. It was constructed by Gordon Manley in the 1950s, from data that goes back to 1659. The CET did not exist until Professor Manley published his paper on his work about 1953.

Edited April 3, 2013 by Weather-history

[hillbilly]

why does it matter a big hoo ha over 2.7 or 2.87 its not like it demolished the old record by 6 degrees!this country has such a varied climate the top of scotland is going to be far different than the scilly isles,where i am from its another world from the pennine hills to 30 miles down the road in lowland york!

[Midlands Ice Age]

why does it matter a big hoo ha over 2.7 or 2.87 its not like it demolished the old record by 6 degrees!this country has such a varied climate the top of scotland is going to be far different than the scilly isles,where i am from its another world from the pennine hills to 30 miles down the road in lowland york!

Hillbilly,

The point about the CET is that it is used by most Climate change Organisation as a proxy in their calculations that get fed into

their models. It must therefore be a subject of extreme scutiny.

To put it into perspective a difference of 0.17C for every month (a big assumption I know) for 10 years will add 2.0C or slightly more to the CET input numbers. Bear in mind that the Climate Change people are forcasting an increase of temperature of between 1.5C and 5C per century!!!!

This shows up that small differences of measurement errors can have major impacts on long term predictions.

This is why we must continue to have an accurate series of numbers for the longest running temperature series in existance.

MIA

PS I do not wish to bring a Climate change discussion to this thread.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hillbilly,

The point about the CET is that it is used by most Climate change Organisation as a proxy in their calculations that get fed into

their models. It must therefore be a subject of extreme scutiny.

To put it into perspective a difference of 0.17C for every month (a big assumption I know) for 10 years will add 2.0C or slightly more to the CET input numbers. Bear in mind that the Climate Change people are forcasting an increase of temperature of between 1.5C and 5C per century!!!!

This shows up that small differences of measurement errors can have major impacts on long term predictions.

This is why we must continue to have an accurate series of numbers for the longest running temperature series in existance.

MIA

PS I do not wish to bring a Climate change discussion to this thread.

[DAVID SNOW]

I like it BFTV,The true face of Climate Change organisations