March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Optimus Prime]

And so it is by a huge margin the coldest March on record for the Manley series (dates going back to 1971) No other March's comes close. 1987 is second at 4.3c and 1985 at 4.6c.

Only 9 January's have been colder and 8 February's. 4 December's.

[Weather-history]

I notice that March CET is down as 2.7C in the table.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Edited April 1, 2013 by Weather-history

[Froze were the Days]

To me this March is far more of an 'eyebrow raiser' than Dec 2010 which in my area didn't beat 1981 for strength of cold and snowfall. As mentioned this March has completely bucked the trend of fairly mild/warm one's, I can't remember such a consistent cold one in my life time. Congratulations to the CFS which by an large forecasted it.

[reef]

I notice that March CET is down as 2.7C in the table.

http://www.metoffice...cetml1659on.dat

Coldest March since 1892 and joint 12th coldest in the CET series.

What a remarkable month!

[Gustywind]

Showing -99.9 when I opened the link for march?

[Optimus Prime]

I notice that March CET is down as 2.7C in the table.

http://www.metoffice...cetml1659on.dat

Also the coldest by mean maxima on record for march;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_max_sort.txt (view in Internet Explorer)

1963 was the last time a record maximum was broken.

Mean minimum is ranked 6th coldest in the series

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_min_sort.txt

December 2010 was the last time a record was set for the entire series.

[reef]

Showing -99.9 when I opened the link for march?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

Also rather notable:

20th-31st March 2013: 1.2C

As WH mentions above, to get such a period at the end of the month is very unusual.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well Hadley have confirmed the March CET as 2.7. So by a small margin it was the coldest March for 121 years although only fractionally below 1962. It has certainly broken the lack of significantly cold Marches in fact over recent decades. The coldest March of recent times was 1987 (4.1) and secondly 1996 (4.5), and there has not been a March below 4*C since 1970, of which there were quite a few sub 4*C Marches in the 1950s and 1960s.

March 2013 has certainly been a notably cold month to say the least, although a fair bit short of been named as the coldest March on record, which was in 1785 (1.2). There were only 11 colder Marches in the CET record than 2013. It certainly is a great celebration to see that given the state of the UK temperature levels over the last 25 years that we can still record a month that is close to 3*C below the 1961-90 average. We had the winter of 2009-10, December 2010 and now March 2013, which have all been good for a cold perspective. Also on top of that summer 2011 managed a CET below 15*C, which was in the cool category. Although temperatures have often been below average in the last 12 months, negative anomalies have been small and no month up to March even recorded a negative anomaly as great as 1*C.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Also the coldest by mean maxima on record for march;

http://www.metoffice...et_max_sort.txt (view in Internet Explorer)

1963 was the last time a record maximum was broken.

Mean minimum is ranked 6th coldest in the series

http://www.metoffice...et_min_sort.txt

December 2010 was the last time a record was set for the entire series.

It is possible that March 1785 (1.2 CET) may have had a lower mean maximum than 2013. The record for mean maximum and minimum CET only goes back to 1878.

Another point about March 2013 is that the second half of the month had a CET of 1.8*C, which possibly makes it the 3rd coldest second half of March since 1772. The coldest second half of March was in 1837 with a CET of 1.4, and the 2nd coldest second half was in 1853 with 1.7. I certainly think that it could have been the coldest final third to March on record this year.

[i certainly think that it could have been the coldest final third to March on record this year.

Edited April 1, 2013 by North-Easterly Blast

[Gustywind]

Thanks reef, so exactly 2.70 then if I'm reading the data correctly, coldest march in over a hundred years.

[Relativistic]

What a great month, am glad to have lived through it. When people remember Winter 2012/2013, they will remember March.

Edited April 1, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Optimus Prime]

1878 is a good date to start from as I believe it was the starting point of using the decimal place and better controls being in place for more accurate readings? Prior to December 2008 when there was an apparent shift in winter patterns I would never have believed two records would fall one way or another. Even more so after such a warm year in 2011 would anoher fall shortly after 2010. Now March 2013 is added to the list. January & November 2010 and December 2009 were also very noteworthy.

So that's two record cold months in 2 1/2 years.

Edited April 1, 2013 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

20th-31st March 2013: 1.2C

As WH mentions above, to get such a period at the end of the month is very unusual.

And the same period last year was 10.2C! 9C warmer!

[West is Best]

Lots of stats above so an anecdotal comment seems out of place, but that was an astonishing month. I returned from Asia late Feb expecting to see Spring. Instead it has been one of the coldest months I can ever recall, certainly for the time of year. Relentlessly bitter.

In some ways I'd rank it alongside February 1986, except that was just bitterly cold whereas this saw prodigious snowfall in the north. Comparisons with December 2010 seem apt, but really it's more akin to the great winters we all lamented until about 5 or 6 years ago when someone switched off global warming

I know extrapolation is tempting, but to me it's another nail in the AGW coffin. And to those who start spouting the 'it will get colder as it gets hotter' line, you're no better than astrologers.

[Gael_Force]

It is possible that March 1785 (1.2 CET) may have had a lower mean maximum than 2013. The record for mean maximum and minimum CET only goes back to 1878.

Another point about March 2013 is that the second half of the month had a CET of 1.8*C, which possibly makes it the 3rd coldest second half of March since 1772. The coldest second half of March was in 1837 with a CET of 1.4, and the 2nd coldest second half was in 1853 with 1.7. I certainly think that it could have been the coldest final third to March on record this year.

[i certainly think that it could have been the coldest final third to March on record this year.

1785 followed exceptional volcanic activity in both Iceland and the Med. If we are getting anywhere close to these figures - exceptional indeed!!

Climate impacts of Laki. http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/education/gases/laki.html

[The PIT]

Coldest March was in 1674 with 1C being the value by the way.

[Relativistic]

Coldest March was in 1674 with 1C being the value by the way.

It is of course possible that 1674 was 1.2C because of the lower precision in the measurements, but then again it could have been sub 1C.

Edited April 1, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Gustywind]

Midlands and parts of Wales saw significant snow from the 22nd to 23rd as well as the north. My locality just south of Birmingham saw 15cms, 30 miles north in the black country they saw close to a foot in places.

[West is Best]

Here we go with another classic: the reason Antarctic sea ice has expanded so much in the last 25 years (which was denied until recently) is that it is getting warmer. Riiiiiiiiiight. If it wasn't from the Beeb I'd assume it was an April Fool's but some people actually believe this stuff, and getting paid by taxpayers to fund it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21991487

[J10]

So March 2013 CET has been confirmed as 2.7c, and that isn't an April Fool.

A few years back we were debating whether we would ever get a winter month with a CET sub 3c, now we are getting a spring month with CET under 3c.

Onto the scores this month, not surprisingly no one got it close,

BARRY predicted 4.7c and was the closest, however special mention to Harve who initially predicted 4.4 but changed their mind very late.

PDF -> Mar 2013 CET.pdf

XLS -> Mar 2013 CET.xls

[laserguy]

Here we go with another classic: the reason Antarctic sea ice has expanded so much in the last 25 years (which was denied until recently) is that it is getting warmer. Riiiiiiiiiight. If it wasn't from the Beeb I'd assume it was an April Fool's but some people actually believe this stuff, and getting paid by taxpayers to fund it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-21991487

Saw this earlier.... so more ice is caused by,er,ice melting. Don't know if it's a joke or not since everyday seems like April 1 with these clowns. Jesting aside,and if it hasn't been done already,the coldest March for xxx years will be blamed on warming. Go figure.

[Summer of 95]

March 2013 was colder than any month between Jan 1997 and Jan 2010, and all but 4 or 5 (depending on the series used) between Jan 1987 and Jan 2010. It really was an extroardinary 20-odd years from the late 80s to the late 00s, bar that slight reversal from 1995-97!

Regarding equally anomalous summer months, in every respect except mean temp and mean minima we have had plenty since the 2007 switch; record dull months, record wet, low maxima- I think we had a hint of what can happen with that one really cold night late last August.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The March CET graph before and after 2013 (Linear trend in black, 10 year mean in red)

....................Before ......................................................After

Coldest January to March period since 1987. Coldest February to March since 1986

[BornFromTheVoid]

The difference between the provisional and final daily CET values

[Cheshire Freeze]

Have we beaten 1962 or not? I guess that's the fundamental question.

Edit: Having looked around, it seems March has been the coldest since 1892.

Edited April 1, 2013 by CreweCold