March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Aaron]

Mean IMBY is 1.8C. It joins December 2010, January 2010 and February 2010 as the coldest months I have ever recorded.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Aaron

[The PIT]

Mean IMBY is 1.8C. It joins December 2010, January 2010 and February 2010 as the coldest months I have ever recorded.

1.8C here as well Coldest Month since Dec 2010 and just pips Feb 2010 at the moment. An amazing month and unlikely to be repeated for a long time. Now last week a new silly weather presenter mentioned spring at this time. Why she said it since not a single model supported the idea I don't know. She must have been on the pop.

Edited March 27, 2013 by The PIT

[Optimus Prime]

The most pear shaped spring ever?

[Optimus Prime]

Mean temperature here is upto 27th;

Mean max 6.8c (-3.8c)

Mean Min 1.1c (-2.6c)

Mean 4.0c (-3.2c)

[Paul T]

This March will smash the 'Max' CET record by some distance.

The current record is 5.8oC from 1888, but 2013 is set to come in at around 5.3oC. Thats a massive 0.5oC lower than second place.

To put that in perspective, its mixing it with the big boys; 1963 is the coldest JAN max by 0.7oC, whilst FEB 1947 is the coldest by 1.1oC. DEC 2010 couldnt even make top spot!

Amazing month, up there with Dec 2010 in my view.

[J10]

Barring a remarkable turn around, BARRY will win this month's comp with his guess of 4.7c, although no accuracy point seem likely for being within 0.5c.

[chionomaniac]

Barring a remarkable turn around, BARRY will win this month's comp with his guess of 4.7c, although no accuracy point seem likely for being within 0.5c.

I guess this must be the first ever month where there is a clear winner well before the end, Julian. (If you can call being almost 2ºC out a win!!!)

[summer blizzard]

Top 20 for me..

5.6 ... mikeocarroll, Lomond Snowstorm, Ferryhill Weather, summer blizzard

5.5 ... Stationary Front, alexis j 9, Aaron

5.4 ... Roger J Smith, stewfox, Dunstable Snow

5.3 ... SteveB... ... ... ... ----- mean of all 354 years (1659-2012) -----

5.2 ... coram ... ... ... ... ----- mean of 19th century (1801-1900) -----

5.1 ... hillbilly, Pharoah Clutchstraw, Norrance

5.0 ... DAVID SNOW ... ... ... ... ----- mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

4.9 ... 22nov10blast, seabreeze86, Burwell Weather Watch

4.8 ... godber

4.7 ... BARRY

4.6 ... ... ... ... ... ----- mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700) -----

4.5 ...

4.4 ... Harve

[Cheshire Freeze]

Am I right in thinking the record for the 20th/21st century is 1962 at 2.8C? If so then I think we stand a chance of the coldest March in over 100 years?

I suppose it would be good as we could add it to the coldest December since the 1800's (2010)

Edited March 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

Am I right in thinking the record for the 20th/21st century is 1962 at 2.8C? If so then I think we stand a chance of the coldest March in over 100 years?

I suppose it would be good as we could add it to the coldest December since the 1800's (2010)

The really depressing thought is that we've had one in winter, one in spring so you could say we are overdue for a truly shocking summer month, we've only got 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average in summer so far,.

[TEITS]

3.2C here in Peterborough but this is based on a local weather station where max temps are often a few C warmer than the official weather station 20miles away.

Just been looking at the summer of 1962 and whilst I don't believe in pattern matching, I certainly won't be investing in a new BBQ or suntan lotion!

[SomeLikeItHot]

There is generally positive auto correlation in the CET series, strongest to the next month - unsurprising as a weather pattern will often span the arbitrary change over between two months. But also persisting over the year. April has about a 15-23% correlation with the summer months, March slightly less 13-18%). Its interesting that May, other than having a high correlation with the following month June, has a weaker correlation with July and August 10%, 15%)

Oh and other than November, March has the strongest correlation with the following December. (10.5%).

So we should expect a colder than average summer but by no means anything like a certainty.

[Gowon]

There is generally positive auto correlation in the CET series, strongest to the next month - unsurprising as a weather pattern will often span the arbitrary change over between two months. But also persisting over the year. April has about a 15-23% correlation with the summer months, March slightly less 13-18%). Its interesting that May, other than having a high correlation with the following month June, has a weaker correlation with July and August 10%, 15%)

Oh and other than November, March has the strongest correlation with the following December. (10.5%).

So we should expect a colder than average summer but by no means anything like a certainty.

So, there's a good chance of a white christmas then.

[Tamara]

So, there's a good chance of a white christmas then.

If 1962 is our analogue then the first flakes should spread south by Boxing Day

I think its only the first few days of the month with those mild sunny days that has prevented this month matching March 1962

In fact that makes it more remarkable because one would expect the coldest days to be achieved much more easily in the opening days of the month. So the weather has done a complete volte face to assumed meteorological logistics. The cold has got stronger the longer the month has continued relative to natural trend. It brings an emphatic true definition to the old weather lore saying 'as the days grow longer the cold gets stronger'

Edited March 28, 2013 by Tamara Road

[SomeLikeItHot]

So, there's a good chance of a white christmas then.

Greater than average chance. ie still not much!

[SomeLikeItHot]

3.1 again to the 27th.

[Summer Sun]

Coldest March since 1962

[sebastiaan1973]

So Gavin, you presume 2013 will be less cold than 1962?

[SomeLikeItHot]

On the Met office measure looks pretty much a

So Gavin, you presume 2013 will be less cold than 1962?

On the met office UK average measure looks pretty certain we won't beat 62. on the CET measure there is still a chance it will be colder this march.

[sebastiaan1973]

What's the difference between those two? CET is Hadley ?

[SomeLikeItHot]

I think the Met office measure is broader area all of UK. Not sure of their definition.

CET is central england and yes compiled by Hadley now, based on Manley who used historical instrumetal records. Areas covers roughly the midlands see the net weather map of the area here, wiki for the overall description and the CET data page.

http://www.netweathe...ction=cet;sess=

http://en.wikipedia....and_temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

CET goes back much longer so it is more fun for the coldest in X years comparison.

Edited March 28, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[sebastiaan1973]

Okay Thanks. Over here in the Netherlands, we have also two. One official from 1900 onwards, De Bilt, and the so called Labrijnreeks; since 1706. http://www.euronet.nl/users/e_wesker/weer/labrijn.html

[Coast]

Coldest and dullest March since the 1960s

This March is set to be the coldest and gloomiest in Britain for 50 years, the Met Office has said, as the country prepares for a freezing Easter.

The latest statistics from the Met Office showed that from March 1 to 26 the UK mean temperature was 2.5C (36.5F), well below average. It makes it the coldest March since 1962, when the average was just 1.9C (35.4C) and the joint fourth coldest ever, alongside 1917 when it was also 2.5C (36.5F). So far there have been just 59 hours of sunshine, making it one of the dullest starts to spring on a par with 1964 when there was just 64 hours for the whole month.

Dave Britton, of the Met Office, said the cold weather is due to last. “Easter will be chilly with some good sunny spells but bitterly cold easterly winds at first, then easing. “There will be the odd snow shower in the East and possible sleet in the far South-West. Nights could see -10C (14F) locally in northern England and Scotland. “There’s little change next week.â€

Snow flurries will continue over the weekend down the east coast and temperatures will remain around 2C (35.6F), feeling even colder in the wind. Maximum temperatures will reach 5C (41F).There will be rain in the west, possibly turning to snow and sleet as it moves north over the weekend. At night the mercury will plunge to -5C (23F) in most places and to -10C on higher ground in rural areas.

The coldest Easter temperature record is -9.8C at Lagganlia, Inverness-shire, on Easter Monday, March 31, 1986.

Next week will continue to be dry and cold with overnight frosts and sunny spells during the day. By mid April it may warm up in the west and become more unsettled but the north and east is set to remain cold until the end of the month. The weather is being caused by a high pressure front sitting to the north east of the UK bringing in cold winds from the east. The Met Office three month forecast predicts it could warm up in late May as the high pressure block moves slightly south and the Continent warms.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9959282/Weather-coldest-and-dullest-March-since-the-1960s.html

[SomeLikeItHot]

God that's bleak! Late May for a warm up.

Edited March 28, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ok so 1962 march CET now being touted as 1.9C?