March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[SomeLikeItHot]

I'm not quite ready to call sub 4 yet, but I might be by the weekend.

Call it may be not, certainly looks odds on though. Latest ECM and GFS 6z runs are very cold next week. Second half of the month may well be as cold or colder than the first based on them, particularly if we get heavy snow in the midlands. Seems to be projecting 4-5 days of near zero or -ve CET days from Sun to Thursday next week. Will be interesting to see the ensembles later to see where the mean sits.

Edited March 20, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Duncan McAlister]

1970: 3.7C

Also the last time first three months of the year were sub 4.

[The PIT]

Looking at our records if our average March temp stays around 2.6C it will the coldest March since 1969. Sadly we don't have the snow we had then but we can't have everything.

Latest runs do suggest a CET below 4C

[SomeLikeItHot]

3.7 to the 19th.

Taking the ECM ensembles for London. CET area should be slightly lower.

I get something like an average of 2.8 for the remaining period. This would result in a CET for the month of about 3.4.

Good ensemble support up to the 28th for those temps. Even if the last 3 days blow out to 10c CETs we would still be under 3.7.

Edited March 20, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[The watcher]

"5.8c Mr Watcher"?

I'll get my coat, it's freezing.

What a cold looking March CET wise. I don't even think it gets represented well in the figures.

Colder than December and maybe even January.

[Harve]

My 4.3c, I think it was, is looking very good!

[Methuselah]

My 6.2? is looking decidedly shaky...

[Don]

I think my CET estimate of 6.4C is well and truly down the toilet now!

[Yarmy]

My 279K (5.85C) is struggling, but I'm not folding yet. The weather is bluffing, I tell ya.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 1.1C, while maxima were around the mid 3s, so a drop back to 3.6C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

3.6C to the 21st (2.5)

3.5C to the 22nd (1.9)

3.5C to the 23rd (2.8]

3.3C to the 24th (0.2)

3.2C to the 25th (0.0)

3.1C to the 26th (-0.2)

3.0C to the 27th (0.0)

That border between the cold and mild air lies just along the southern CET zone on this run. A hundred miles further south, and we'd be closer to 2.5C by the 27th, a few hundred miles further north, and we'd be closer to 4.0C.

At this stage, anything from the low 2s to the low 5s is still possible.

Edited March 20, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[summer blizzard]

Ensembles suggest that we may go average/above average in daily means from around the 29th, will be interesting to keep an eye.

[Yarmy]

2 notable things about this month's CET

1. Looks like the second half will be colder than the first.

2. There has been next to no snow cover to bring the value down (correct me if I'm wrong). I'm guessing the other low values in the record had more snow lying around for a time.

Edit: And a third! The infamous 'Year without a Summer' of 1816 had a March CET of 3.9.

Edited March 20, 2013 by Yarmy

[Stu_London]

LOL @ the 12z.

It's an INSANE run for the end of March.

In terms of severity, easily beating December 2010.

As BFTV points out, we could be easily be looking at a sub 3C march, if we verify.

Ensembles suggest that we may go average/above average in daily means from around the 29th, will be interesting to keep an eye.

It might happen and it this time of year, perhaps more likely, but cold has a habit of sticking around at least a day or two longer than expected even when there a solid breakdown pattern emerges.

[Snowyowl9]

It could be the coldest since 1962(2.8c)looking at next weeks bitter easterly to steamroll in very low maxes,this is turning out to be an exceptional march so far with the CET still at 3.7c coldest currently since 1969.

1987 was 4.1c

[IanR]

LOL @ the 12z.

In terms of severity, easily beating December 2010.

Highly doubt it , in dec2010 we had 2 weeks of lying snow without much melt , and one particular afternoom the temp sank to -14c at 3.30pm ,If that happens in Wigan again especially in late March I will eat my hat.

[Stu_London]

Highly doubt it , in dec2010 we had 2 weeks of lying snow without much melt , and one particular afternoom the temp sank to -14c at 3.30pm ,If that happens in Wigan again especially in late March I will eat my hat.

I should have said relative severity.

Which means, relative to the conditions one would normally expect at the respective times of year.

[hillbilly]

Highly doubt it , in dec2010 we had 2 weeks of lying snow without much melt , and one particular afternoom the temp sank to -14c at 3.30pm ,If that happens in Wigan again especially in late March I will eat my hat.

had we had a little more snow and slightly colder it could have been a very severe period

[March Blizzard]

I'd still rate December 2010 as relatively more severe. This March is currently about 3C below average, Dec 2010 ended up over 5C below average. It was, after all, the second coldest December on record.

On topic, the average CET minima this month is 0.5C so far. Next week looks to have some very cold nights so a final average close to freezing is possible. Some places may have a sub zero average min.

[IanR]

I should have said relative severity.

Which means, relative to the conditions one would normally expect at the respective times of year.

Of course , I was only thinking recently that had these synoptics occured in Dec or Jan, it would be Dec2010 all over again but lasting even longer, it does not surprise me a severe spell is happening again so soon , In the coming winters of the next decade we could see some weather that will make us think we have been transported to siberia. it will get us big time soon !

the prediction that our winters could be more like scandanavian ones seems to be coming to fruition, the climate is shifting without a doubt in my mind

[IanR]

Looking at our records if our average March temp stays around 2.6C it will the coldest March since 1969. Sadly we don't have the snow we had then but we can't have everything.

Latest runs do suggest a CET below 4C

was the period dec1968 to march1969 generally colder than the winter we are having?

[Stu_London]

I'd still rate December 2010 as relatively more severe. This March is currently about 3C below average, Dec 2010 ended up over 5C below average. It was, after all, the second coldest December on record.

On topic, the average CET minima this month is 0.5C so far. Next week looks to have some very cold nights so a final average close to freezing is possible. Some places may have a sub zero average min.

Or course, I am cherry picking now, but a substantial part of the 4th week in March is forecast have a CET close or perhaps below 0C, against an average for that week of about 7.5c to 8.0c. I accept, December 2010 still more impressive because the cold was for the whole month.

[March Blizzard]

Or course, I am cherry picking now, but a substantial part of the 4th week in March is forecast have a CET close or perhaps below 0C, against an average for that week of about 7.5c to 8.0c. I accept, December 2010 still more impressive because the cold was for the whole month.

Fair enough. It's also worth pointing out the first 8-9 days of this month were close to average so to get a possible sub 3C month is very impressive. I'd agree that the final third or so (as forecast) of this month is just as severe as Dec 2010 overall in terms of below average temperatures, maybe more.

[The PIT]

was the period dec1968 to march1969 generally colder than the winter we are having?

Yes for us I don't know Nationally. Winter came in at 2.6C While this Winter 3.4C. Yesterday took us down to 2.5C today will drops us 2.4C I suspect so it's going to be close.

[damianslaw]

Ooh it's a cold outlook for March- exceptionally cold it has to be said, sub -10 uppers are due to park themselves over northern and eastern parts by Sunday/Monday once again - a very notable event for so late in the season, in a number of winters we haven't managed to see -10 uppers at any stage, nevermind in late March.

Early next week could deliver some bone chilling nights - indeed if we have a deep snow cover some northern parts could see record cold minima for the time of year under an intensely cold pool of stagnant air thanks to ridging of the arctic heights in towards northern scotland - much will depend on cloud cover and wind.

We could be on course to see our coldest March since 1970 or indeed 1969, strong chance we will now beat March 96 and probably 87.

Did anyone see such a cold March coming? I didn't.

This month is reminding many just how cold and wintry March can be - indeed the chances of persistant cold and snow is higher in March in the north at least than it is for the greater part of December- we've just become very used to benign quiet mild Marches in recent years - the last cold wintry one being 2006.

[Weather-history]

Did anyone see such a cold March coming? I didn't.

I think we were due one and it would seem only a matter of time before we get a really cold February. That would be the last piece of the jigsaw now.