March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Harve]

I think the nearest shout I seen to where it looks like we are heading (around 3c) was a 4.7/4.8c. Le Harve did say 4.4c but changed his mind to 5.8c on the 1st of the month. When was the last time the closest call was nearly 2c out. Crazy.

Oh damnit, so I did. I don't even remember doing that - big mistake!

[Summer of 95]

The coldest March of the post-m0dern wint3r era is on course to beat all but 3 months during the Twenty Years without a Winter, and will almost certainly beat any between 1997 and 2008. Thats any "winter" month. And one more thing; the sun is stronger now than when we hit 28C here at the start of October 2011.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Summer of 95

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is -1.1C while maxima are currently below 0C, so unlikely to climb much above 0C today. This would result in a drop back to 3.3C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.2C to the 25th (0.9)

3.1C to the 26th (0.2)

3.0C to the 27th (0.2)

2.9C to the 28th (1.3)

2.9C to the 29th (3.9)

3.2C to the 30th (10.6)

3.4C to the 31st (10.9)

Probably 3.3C or 3.2C after corrections on this run.

Once more, we've got an ECM vs GFS situation. So still a range from mid 2s to mid 3s possible.

[Kentish Man]

06z GFS might be a reality check.

Mins not so severe this week and a BIG warmup in the last few days.

I would say sub 4 looks in the bag, but thoughts of sub 3 can be banished if that comes anywhere near fruition

Even with the GFS 06z only the final two days of the month are very mild as the daytime mildness on the 29th is tempered by a predicted overnight frost on 28th/29th. ECM, GEM ,UKMO and NOGAPS all have cold or less mild scenarios at the moment. Nevertheless GFS may of course be right especially from what I have seen it has been the best model this winter.

The most interesting batle for me is not whether we finish sub 3C but whether March manages to end up as the coldest "winter" month in a cold winter.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Kentish Man

[March Blizzard]

I would like a sub 3C March, one for the record books. As soon as we hit April 1st mild weather has permission to arrive!

[kold weather]

Well the 12z GFS and ECM once again swing back colder and stay cold throughout, looking at the pattern and what we've had in recent weeks, that has got tobe the form horse.

IF those runs come back on, then sub 3C is very much game on!

[Summer Sun]

3.3c to the 24th

[Potent Gust]

I never thought I would see a sub 3c March in my lifetime! I really hope it happens. Looking at the models it is really possible now!

[Methuselah]

I'm officially giving-up on my 6.2!

[Summer Sun]

I'm officially giving-up on my 6.2!

lol I went for 8.2c next month I'm going for a low guess that way it may turn out warmer

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[SomeLikeItHot]

latest output still looking good for sub 3 CET.

I think we are heading for 2.8-2.9 based on the GFS 0Z output. and 2.7-2.8 based on the 6z output ensemble means.

Warmest 6z Ensemble members would be around 3.1

Edited March 25, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Bobd29]

I never thought I would see a sub 3c March in my lifetime! I really hope it happens. Looking at the models it is really possible now!

Agree could well be 2.8 imo.absolutely amazing, and nobody went anywhere near that in the competition which just shows how extremely unusual this month has been.

[TonyH]

Probably my worst ever performance going to end up around 3c too high!

Edited March 25, 2013 by TonyH

[Summer Sun]

Its looking likely now that March will turn out colder than January (3.5) and February (3.2)

2.7c will beat the 1962 record

[reef]

A mean of 0.8C would be required for the remaining days to beat 1962, provisionally anyway. If theres an adjustment downwards at month end then we could get away with it being milder.

[Paul T]

looking at latest output, the CET will be:

Currently: 3.304 oC

25th: 3.232 oC (daily1.5)

26th: 3.154 oC (daily1.2)

27th: 3.107 oC (daily1.9)

28th: 3.039 oC (daily1.2)

29th: 2.976 oC (daily1.2)

30th: 2.943 oC (daily2.0)

31st: 2.945 oC (daily3.0)

So, without adjustments, we are looking at 2.9oC; with adjustments, perhaps 2.7oC?

But so many nuances persist: colder nights under clearer skies? warmer days under clear skies? Faster or slower breakdown from the SW?

Another amazing fact from all of this is the current temperature of the North sea! Parts of it are seeing -3 below the typical average.

Paul

Edited March 25, 2013 by Paul T

[Don]

Its looking likely now that March will turn out colder than January (3.5) and February (3.2)

2.7c will beat the 1962 record

Yes and to think that January and February were both below their averages makes it all the more noteworthy!

[Lettucing Gutted]

I never thought I would see a sub 3c March in my lifetime! I really hope it happens. Looking at the models it is really possible now!

lol. Less than 5 years ago many people here including myself didn't even think we will see sub 3C winter months ever again.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is -1.0C, while maxima look like being around 2.0C, so 3.2C is likely for tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.1C to the 26th (0.4)

3.0C to the 27th (0.6)

2.9C to the 28th (0.7)

2.8C to the 29th (0.9)

2.8C to the 30th (1.4)

2.7C to the 31st (1.2)

With corrections, could well reach 2.5C.

[The PIT]

Well we've beaten our lowest 2.1C 1969 now down to 2C.

[reef]

The lowest here in 33 years of records is 1987 with a mean of 4.0C. This month we're already down to 3.4C so it will take the record by some way!

[Summer Sun]

This March is the first one since 2009 that hasn't had 15c or above

2008 had a maximum of 13.9c

2013's maximum is going to be 11.8c (unless something remarkable happens between now and Sunday)

[March Blizzard]

Up to the 24th the March minimum CET is currently 0.4C, 0.1C colder than Feb and 0.9C colder than Jan. The March maxima CET is Currently 6.2C, Just 0.3C warmer than Feb and 0.6C warmer than Jan.

Against the 1961-90 averages, the minima anomaly is -1.7C. The maxima anomaly is -2.6C. This demonstrates that this month, so far, has been more notable for low maxima than low minima, yet the minima value is still notable.

[Weather-history]

10th January - 24th March 2013: 2.8C

[sebastiaan1973]

So you British could have the coldest march in decades. Even colder than 1962?! Amazing!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Perhaps since 1883!

In the North of Holland, it will become the 5th place of coldest march months sice 1900.