March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Roger J Smith]

Assuming 3.5 after today, if the current GFS is correct, the next seven days will average 5.0 bringing the average to about 4.0 and from there it would look like 5.5 to 6.0 bringing the CET fairly close to 5.0 ... the only change from that would likely be upwards as we are clearly in a sort of gradually retreating block becoming more of a cold zonal towards the end -- that can sometimes escalate into a reversal. I am sort of expecting one or two really warm days just at the end of the month so still thinking 5.4 looks about right.

[March Blizzard]

Roger, is there a chance of a big downward correction at the end of the month or is it far too early to tell? We have had quite low minima so far.

[Weather-history]

Mid January to mid March looks distinctly chilly. The 2nd half of winter was the coldest since 1995-96 and now added to this an overall chilly first half to March.

Looks like the coolest mid January to mid March period since 1996 and the 2nd coolest such period in the last 25 years.

[March Blizzard]

It's funny how figures can deceive, one of the coldest late winter-early springs in quarter of a century yet there has been little in the way of "deep" cold in that time. It's been more consistently chilly with a lack of mild incursions. Makes you wonder about some exceptional cold/warm spells that have hidden themselves in average looking figures.

[IanR]

If the GFS 12z was to come to fruition we'd have a genuine chance at the coldest March since 1970 (3.7C), possibly 1969 (3.3C).

2006 was perhaps the best chance recently with a mean in the low 3s until the last week, but then milder weather meant it increased rapidly.

whats the chance of 1969 being beaten now the models have upgraded cold for the next week or so?

[SomeLikeItHot]

whats the chance of 1969 being beaten now the models have upgraded cold for the next week or so?

looking at the current GFS OZ run for oxfordshire say as a proxy for the cet, the op mean CET is less than 2 for the rest of the month - were that to occur. That would give something around 3 or below.

However the ensemble mean is still pointing to something considerable higher say mean 4 for the rest of the month (hardly warm but warmer - and I'm just eyeballing it by the way). So I guess that gives you a bit of a range. I'd say the prob of a March CET < 4 is about 50% at this stage, While one under 3.5 is still looking to be < 20% at this point and that's possibly generous. Still quite amazing for it to be any significant chance at all.

Edited March 16, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[damianslaw]

whats the chance of 1969 being beaten now the models have upgraded cold for the next week or so?

It would be good if someone could post March CET values for the following years -

1975, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006 and 2010 which from memory were all preety chilly months with notable cold periods at times.

I think March 06 was the last proper cold March, 1986, 1987 and 1996 were also preety cold.

Its too early to call what the likely finish for March 2013 will be - but there is a good chance of it being below 4.5 degrees going off today's ECM and GFS outputs. However, we only have to look back at 2006 to see how a cold first two thirds quickly changed to a very mild final third thus preventing March 06 ending up a very cold one indeed.

I am enjoying this March from a model watching perspective. In recent years March has been a very tedious month model watching, with very benign conditions associated with quiet anticylonic weather or the usual fairly weak atlantic westerly/southwesterly incursions with the odd weak northerly or easterly thrown in. This March is shaping up to be a very different kettle of fish, thanks to exceptionally strong robust heights over the arctic and a very cold pool of air to our NE for the time of year.

Edited March 16, 2013 by damianslaw

[reef]

whats the chance of 1969 being beaten now the models have upgraded cold for the next week or so?

A mean of exactly 3.0C would be required for the remaining 17 days of the month. If there is an adjustment downwards at month end then slightly less cold than that would do.

Its pretty far-fetched, but if something like the GFS 00z came to fruition then we could manage it.

[Weather-history]

March CETs

1975: 4.8

1978: 6.7

1979: 4.7

1980: 4.7

1985: 4.7

1986: 4.9

1987: 4.1

1995: 5.6

1996: 4.5

2001: 5.2

2005: 7.2

2006: 4.9

2010: 6.1

Edited March 16, 2013 by Weather-history

[March Blizzard]

When was the last sub 4C March?

[Weather-history]

When was the last sub 4C March?

1970: 3.7C

[BornFromTheVoid]

All March CETs below 5.0C, since 1900. Ranked coldest to mildest.

1962..... 2.8

1917..... 3.2

1955..... 3.2

1916..... 3.3

1969..... 3.3

1919..... 3.6

1937..... 3.6

1947..... 3.6

1900..... 3.7

1909..... 3.7

1958..... 3.7

1970..... 3.7

1901..... 4.1

1924..... 4.1

1951..... 4.1

1987..... 4.1

1931..... 4.2

1904..... 4.3

1908..... 4.3

1964..... 4.3

1996..... 4.5

1922..... 4.6

1932..... 4.7

1979..... 4.7

1980..... 4.7

1984..... 4.7

1985..... 4.7

1934..... 4.8

1975..... 4.8

1976..... 4.8

1925..... 4.9

1971..... 4.9

1986..... 4.9

2006..... 4.9

So 3.7C would give us joint 9th lowest since 1900, while 4.1C would put us in the coldest 15.

Edited March 16, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.6C to the 15th

http://www.metoffice...t_mean_est_2013

Yesterday was 4.9C. Today's minimum is 3.7C while maxima look like being close to 8C, so an increase to 3.7C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

3.7C to the 17th (3.5)

3.7C to the 18th (3.5)

3.7C to the 19th (2.8]

3.6C to the 20th (1.9)

3.6C to the 21st (3.2)

3.6C to the 22nd (4.7)

3.5C to the 23rd (1.3)

[damianslaw]

Thanks for posting the CET values of those months I asked for. I thought 2005 was colder, alas I do now remember there being a mild period in the second half.

There is a good chance then that we will see our coldest March since at least 1996, if not 1987.

[reef]

Thanks for posting the CET values of those months I asked for. I thought 2005 was colder, alas I do now remember there being a mild period in the second half.

There is a good chance then that we will see our coldest March since at least 1996, if not 1987.

The first half was fairly cold but the second exceptionally mild, indeed even warmer than the second half of March 2012.

1st-15th March 2005: 3.9C

16th-31st March 2005: 10.3C.

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 16th

[Summer Sun]

Global Warming's prediction on TWO

Latest update shows the CET is expected to finish at 4.15C by my calculations given the current output. That would make it the coldest March since 1987 when the CET was 4.1C.

My calculations are still running above the Hadley estimate which is a little unusual but some of the Hadley figures earlier in the month were absolute rubbish. To the 16th my CET estimate is 3.93C.

[Guest pjl20101]

I think global warming on TWO makes total sense and says a lot of valid things which we should take firm notice of. Wish we had him and Stormchaser on here as it would strengthen the team. They are nice guys too.

[Weather-history]

The first half was fairly cold but the second exceptionally mild, indeed even warmer than the second half of March 2012.

1st-15th March 2005: 3.9C

16th-31st March 2005: 10.3C.

Not surprising when you see temperatures like this

19th March 2005

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 17th

Edited March 18, 2013 by Gavin.

[Don]

Not surprising when you see temperatures like this

19th March 2005

March 2005 virtually went from Winter to Summer in a week!

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 18th

[SomeLikeItHot]

Oxfordshire GFS average temps on the gfs 6z. Looking at the ensemble mean, we have around average of say 3 (probably a high estimate) for the next 10 days, followed by an average of around 7 for the last 3 days giving a final result of about 3.8 for march. Would be slightly colder for more northern parts of the CET area, and the ECM certainly looks colder than this for the next 10 days. I think a good chance of a sub 4 March CET at this point.

[Stu_London]

I'm not quite ready to call sub 4 yet, but I might be by the weekend.

[The PIT]

Well Sheffield missed out on some of the higher temps earlier this month so we're at 2.6C at the moment. Quite impressive.