March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 3rd

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[reef]

Can someone post a graph of March daily means, like I think Reef did in the Feb CET thread? I would greatly appreciate it.

March Daily averages:

Generally cool for the first 5 days then a gradual increase. Note the rapid warming between the 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 averages. The average is generally 2 weeks 'ahead' of where it used to be now as the means increase.

Edited March 4, 2013 by reef

[March Blizzard]

Cheers Reef. March really has warmed up over the last few decades.

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 4th

[Summer Sun]

3.9c to the 5th

[reef]

Its looking like the first half of March could potentially be very cold indeed. Yesterday's mean of 4.5C was much lower than expected a few days ago and it doesnt look like warming up much before the projected cold spell arrives.

It'll be interesting to see how this month compares to 2006, that was very cold up until the last week when it warmed up significantly.

[Roger J Smith]

It will be interesting to see if the CET can achieve either a daily record or an ice day as both would be very unusual for this time of year. If you follow the link in my signature, you can see a list of daily record high and low values for each day of the year (daily means only). Based on that, these periods without daily records have been noted:

10 March to 31 March ... no record cold in the 20th or 21st centuries

8 March to 10 April ... no record cold after 1917

There were record cold days in 1947 and 1965 in the first seven days of March and the "recent past" futility spell was broken by record lows 11 April 1978 and 14-15 April 1966. (note: I had to change wording when I noticed what the censor behind the scenes here makes of the phrase "M-od-ern w-arm-ing" (try it out) kind of silly really just like the prohibition against saying the name B'stardi. I mean really? why?)

As for ice days, these have been rare in March in modern times. I suppose a true "ice day" is one with a maximum below 0.0 but a less severe daily mean below 0.0 indicates widespread frost most of the day and there were a couple in early March 2006, but I would think if Monday or any day after that managed one, it might be the latest recorded in recent decades.

Monday has a chance of setting a daily record because it encounters the weakest daily record in this part of March, only -1.9 (1847) and Tuesday is only -2.4 (1785) whereas by Wed 13th the record is also the monthly record of -6.5 from 1845, Thursday's record was the next day at -3.7. Another less formidable record occurs on Friday 15th (-1.6, 1867).

On the other side of the coin, the CET for 10-12 March 1957 was 12.5 C with three daily record highs in a row.

The "modern futility" aspect of daily record lows is fairly dire throughout the year but this spell seems to be the worst. Just for your interest, this appears to be the complete list of daily record low CET values since 1980 (throughout the year):

12 and 13 Jan 1987 (-7.7, -6.6)

14 Jan 1982 (-7.6)

21 Feb 1986 (-4.6)

26 Apr 1981 (3.3)

16 May 1996 (5.2)

27 May 1984 (6.6)

2 June 1991 (7.6)

4 June 1991 (8.0) tied 1871

5 June 1991 (8.2)

10 July 1993 (11.2)

15 Sep 1986 (7.9)

28 Nov 2010 (-4.0)

12-13 Dec 1981 (-8.5, -6.5)

19-21 Dec 2010 (-6.8, -7.0, -5.9)

This counts as 17.5 days out of 366. At random since the period is 241.2 years (1772 to present) you would expect 48 daily records.

Before late 2010 beefed up the total, the futility stood at 12.5 days where 46 would have been expected.

There was no daily record low between May 1996 and November 2010. The 1980s with 9 daily record lows was running at about half the expected pace so the period from 1992 to 2009 really stands out as a record low drought period. Perhaps the good performance of late 2010 has ushered in a return to more frequent (at least up to random expectation) record lows. Without counting them up, the 1960s and 1970s appeared to produce a more normal flow of them, but the 1950s had rather few also outside of Feb 1956 perhaps.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[March Blizzard]

Is there a slight chance this March could have a lower CET value than the 3 winter months before it? If so, when was the last time March was colder than 3 below average winter months preceding it?

[Weather-history]

Is there a slight chance this March could have a lower CET value than the 3 winter months before it? If so, when was the last time March was colder than 3 below average winter months preceding it?

I think it was 1949

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is 0.8C, while maxima were around 10C, so an increase to about 4.2C tomorrow is likely.

After then, the 12z GFS has the CET at about

4.8C to the 7th (8.6)

5.6C to the 8th (10.9)

5.9C to the 9th (8.0)

5.5C to the 10th (2.3)

4.9C to the 11th (-1.4)

4.5C to the 12th (0.7)

4.4C to the 13th (3.4)

[dec10snow]

Dec10snow, follow the link in my signature below and you'll find the daily CET values as calculated for both the long-term and the modern somewhat warmer values. In March they rise from about 5 C at start of month to about 7-8 C near end of month and so we keep track of anomalies against that trend.

Meanwhile, I posted an updated version of the monthly entries over in the contest results thread, to include the late entries.

Cheers helpful, thanks!

[dec10snow]

March Daily averages:

Generally cool for the first 5 days then a gradual increase. Note the rapid warming between the 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 averages. The average is generally 2 weeks 'ahead' of where it used to be now as the means increase.

Interestingly, that graph shows a slight drop in temps before recovering again, around the 11/12... And by about the 10/11th this month, it shall get colder!

[Summer Sun]

4.0 to the 6th

[Weather-history]

Monday could produce a rare -ve March CET mean. The last occasion was 4th March 2006.

Since 1970

5th March 1970

7th March 1970

8th March 1970

9th March 1970

4th March 1971

5th March 1971

6th March 1971

20th March 1985

1st March 1986

3rd March 1986

2nd March 2001

3rd March 2001

3rd March 2006

4th March 2006

[March Blizzard]

Monday could produce a rare -ve March CET mean. The last occasion was 4th March 2006.

Since 1970

5th March 1970

7th March 1970

8th March 1970

9th March 1970

4th March 1971

5th March 1971

6th March 1971

20th March 1985

1st March 1986

3rd March 1986

2nd March 2001

3rd March 2001

3rd March 2006

4th March 2006

Goes to show that sub zero means are still possible right until the end of astronomical winter.

[The PIT]

Is there a slight chance this March could have a lower CET value than the 3 winter months before it? If so, when was the last time March was colder than 3 below average winter months preceding it?

We managed it in 57/58 Winter months 4.6C 3.7C 4.5C then March 3.2C None since though.

[Weather-history]

We managed it in 57/58 Winter months 4.6C 3.7C 4.5C then March 3.2C None since though.

What figures are those because they are not the CET figures?

Dec 1957: 4.5

Jan 1958: 3.4

Feb 1958: 4.7

Mar 1958: 3.7

[damianslaw]

Goes to show that sub zero means are still possible right until the end of astronomical winter.

[DAVID SNOW]

What figures are those because they are not the CET figures?

Dec 1957: 4.5

Jan 1958: 3.4

Feb 1958: 4.7

Mar 1958: 3.7

'We',as in Sheffield?

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 7th

[SomeLikeItHot]

If the GFS 6z today actually verified through the run it would have to give the March 1962 CET a challenge.

[Harve]

If the GFS 6z today actually verified through the run it would have to give the March 1962 CET a challenge.

Looking at the temperature projections crudely, the run gives CET values between -1 and 2c... wow.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looking at the temperature projections crudely, the run gives CET values between -1 and 2c... wow.

Certainly gives some perspective how rare such an event would be were it to occur as projected.

[March Blizzard]

Imagine an overall March CET of -1C. That would be colder than any December! Shame the chances of it are extremely minuscule. Oh well, we can dream.

[hillbilly]

Imagine an overall March CET of -1C. That would be colder than any December! Shame the chances of it are extremely minuscule. Oh well, we can dream.

would the first half of march in say 1947 have reached that low??