March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Mark Bayley]

7.2c please

[Barry12]

Actually I'm gonna go for 7C

[Muffelchen]

6.3°C for me please

[Don]

I think I will go for 6.4C, so slightly below the 1981-10 average. Milder interludes alternating with colder ones but nothing too extreme. Thanks

[dec10snow]

I'll go for 6.3 also thanks!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

6.5C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm going to go for 6.1C. I think there will be mild spells around the 5th-10th and during the last third of the month, but the middle third of the month will probably have extensive high pressure to the north and easterly winds- though probably of the dry cloudy cool variety rather than very cold and snowy.

[Ice BIast]

5.9C, a month of above and below average temperatures, with little in the way of average.

[TonyH]

7.5c please

[Dunstable Snow]

5.4 for me please. Struggling to see a major mild pattern in the foreseable and with significant cold pooling to the north and north east there is a chance that we could encounter some significant cold uppers for a period during the month.

I have to say that I have been cr*p at this all winter so I will be amazed if I am close on this one !

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

4.9 please

[Roger J Smith]

I have posted the usual list of forecasts over in the scoring thread. There have been 79 or 80 on-time forecasts (not sure if one is legit as it's stated in degrees K) and the median at this point is 6.1 C.

[Harve]

Going to change to 5.8c as my sub-4.5c has turned out to be almost entirely optimism.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

7.9 please

[DiagonalRedLine]

Sorry it's a tad late, but 6.9*C.

Thanks.

[Summer Sun]

March has opened up with 4.2c to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.2C to the 1st

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Today's minimum is -0.4C, while maxima look like climbing close to 8C, so something close to 4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

4.1C to the 3rd (4.4)

4.3C to the 4th (4.8]

4.8C to the 5th (6.7)

5.2C to the 6th (7.5)

5.9C to the 7th (9.9)

6.6C to the 8th (11.8]

7.0C to the 9th (10.0)

[Summer Sun]

4.0c to the 2nd

[dec10snow]

This is probably a really stupid question... But I'm now confused! I thought the average for march was 5.7C, but the CET is at 4C currently, and an anomaly of -0.6??

[March Blizzard]

The March CET of 5.7C was for the period 1961-1990. The CET for the period 1971-2000 is 6.3C.

The Met Office anomaly figure goes off the average daily means up until that date, that's why it doesn't add up to the overall CET value for the month.

[dec10snow]

The March CET of 5.7C was for the period 1961-1990. The CET for the period 1971-2000 is 6.3C.

The Met Office anomaly figure goes off the average daily means up until that date, that's why it doesn't add up to the overall CET value for the month.

Thanks I've never noticed that before though... How strange!

[Harve]

Thanks I've noticed that before though... How strange!

It's a lot more representative really. It takes into account that the mean will, on average, rise throughout the month.

[March Blizzard]

Can someone post a graph of March daily means, like I think Reef did in the Feb CET thread? I would greatly appreciate it.

[dec10snow]

It's a lot more representative really. It takes into account that the mean will, on average, rise throughout the month.

Sorry, my post probably didn't make sense, as I missed a word!

[Roger J Smith]

Dec10snow, follow the link in my signature below and you'll find the daily CET values as calculated for both the long-term and the modern somewhat warmer values. In March they rise from about 5 C at start of month to about 7-8 C near end of month and so we keep track of anomalies against that trend.

Meanwhile, I posted an updated version of the monthly entries over in the contest results thread, to include the late entries.