March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[damianslaw]

Cet taking a nosedive, should be in the high 3s by friday, thereafter only à slow rise is likely. Mins Its too early to call à below an average month but offs of another below average month is High, à notable 12 month period of below or beat average months.

[Summer Sun]

4.0c to the 11th

[March Blizzard]

I take it yesterday came in at -0.9C then?

[reef]

I take it yesterday came in at -0.9C then?

Yesterday was -0.6C, pretty cold for March!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Today wont be far off either as the minimum is -3.5C.

[March Blizzard]

Yesterday was -0.6C, pretty cold for March!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Today wont be far off either as the minimum is -3.5C.

I expected slightly lower than that to be honest. I guess the lack of low minima in the midlands, due to cloud, prevented it falling further.

[Stu_London]

06z gfs looks cool to cold right though to the 20th (beyond that not really worth speculating on) - Should be well down in the low to mid 3s by the 20th - I wonder if we can get a March with a CET in the 3s

Sub 4 March's these days are rarer than hen's teeth, but there were 11 examples in the 20th Century, the last one being 1970.

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if the March CET will come in lower than it did in January which was 3.5c could be close all will depend on cloud cover in the midlands

[Harve]

I'd be surprised if we could sustain a CET below 4c. I imagine that most Marches that managed a CET of below 4c would've been below 3c or even 2c right now, as it's difficult to hold against the tide of seasonal warming.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum of -3.5C today, while maxima look like being close to 5C, so a drop to 3.7C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.6C to the 13th (1.7)

3.4C to the 14th (1.8]

3.5C to the 15th (4.0)

3.5C to the 16th (4.5)

3.6C to the 17th (4.5)

3.5C to the 18th (1.7)

3.5C to the 19th (3.6)

[March Blizzard]

I'd be surprised if we could sustain a CET below 4c. I imagine that most Marches that managed a CET of below 4c would've been below 3c or even 2c right now, as it's difficult to hold against the tide of seasonal warming.

Agreed. Would be a big ask. The month had been too mild/average until the cold arrived on about the 9th/10th. A similar level of cold to today/tomorrow would then have to persist until the end of the month. Not impossible but not probable.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Agreed. Would be a big ask. The month had been too mild/average until the cold arrived on about the 9th/10th. A similar level of cold to today/tomorrow would then have to persist until the end of the month. Not impossible but not probable.

Today and tomorrow are going to have CET means around 1-2, so if the rest of the month turned out like that we would end up sub 3 CET. Still I agree that sub 4 is less than 50% chance even given the cold charts that are showing up.

[SP1986]

The biggest enemy with be the maxima returning to something higher, it'll still be below average by a few degrees. The interesting thing will be minima.. I think there is a chance minima in some places may have a mean below 0C by the end of the month. Judging by model outputs it's possible, it'll be near a record for someone that's for sure.

[March Blizzard]

Yeah, the biggest enemy of low average temperatures in March are the maxima, the minima in general are not too dissimilar to the winter months. There's just too much that has to fall into place to suppress maxima when the sun is up for around 12 hours a day.

[reef]

If the GFS 12z was to come to fruition we'd have a genuine chance at the coldest March since 1970 (3.7C), possibly 1969 (3.3C).

2006 was perhaps the best chance recently with a mean in the low 3s until the last week, but then milder weather meant it increased rapidly.

[Weather-history]

Minimum of -3.5C today, while maxima look like being close to 5C, so a drop to 3.7C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.6C to the 13th (1.7)

3.4C to the 14th (1.8]

3.5C to the 15th (4.0)

3.5C to the 16th (4.5)

3.6C to the 17th (4.5)

3.5C to the 18th (1.7)

3.5C to the 19th (3.6)

Mid January to mid March looks distinctly chilly. The 2nd half of winter was the coldest since 1995-96 and now added to this an overall chilly first half to March.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Weather-history

[Stu_London]

Given where we are, the immediate forecast and the longer term trend, I think what we can say is that this won't be settled until the final week.

[Roger J Smith]

That daily mean of -0.6 C could still be corrected to provide a rare March daily record (-1.6 needed for the 11th).

Would say looking at current model runs that it will be difficult to get much of an increase anywhere down the road until very near the end, by which time there isn't much mobility. But just as a "what if" here's what would be needed if the CET was at a rather conservative 4.5 C on the 21st with ten days to go (and with our actual forecast range in mind) ...

5.0 requires 5.8 last ten days.

5.5 requires 7.5 last ten days

6.0 requires 9.1 last ten days

6.5 requires 10.7 last ten days

That's about as high as I could speculate, feeling quite comfy at 5.4 and would stay there if given a reload.

[Gustywind]

Agreed. Would be a big ask. The month had been too mild/average until the cold arrived on about the 9th/10th. A similar level of cold to today/tomorrow would then have to persist until the end of the month. Not impossible but not probable.

Had a look at march 62 yesterday and the first half of that month must have been close to subzero Cet wise, with similiar Synoptics to now but from the start of the month instead. Just as you'd need a very warm march to have its temperature peak in the last third, I agree it will be a big ask to get a very cold march when the first third was only average. Still a sub 4c month can't be ruled out especially after this mornings ECM.

[March Blizzard]

I would love a sub 4C March. Given how mild they have been on average for nearly 30 years a notably cold one is inevitable, let's hope it's March 2013. In a way it's a frustrating month in terms of cold, in the past it has produced sub zero CET values for at least half the month but there has always been some kind of mild/warm period to drag up the temperatures. 1947 flicked like a switch this way. There have also been sub zero CET days well into the month which shows respectable cold can happen right up until April. It's just very rarely managed to put the whole "package" together in one calendar month. It is to be expected given the unavoidable slide into a warmer time of year, though.

I can wait till April for spring this year.

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 12th

[hillbilly]

Had a look at march 62 yesterday and the first half of that month must have been close to subzero Cet wise, with similiar Synoptics to now but from the start of the month instead. Just as you'd need a very warm march to have its temperature peak in the last third, I agree it will be a big ask to get a very cold march when the first third was only average. Still a sub 4c month can't be ruled out especially after this mornings ECM.

met office at bradford gave 1.75 for march 1947 much colder than march 62. on that reckoning id guess hilltops in this area must have had an average either very close to zero or minus !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!amazing

[Guest pjl20101]

Think its safe to say I admit defeat for my prediction this month, mind you since we've come into this century we've only had two marches that have been below the met office average. Safe to say we have been spoilt by march months that have been pleasant, this is more like reality in fairness.

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 13th

[March Blizzard]

The provisional March minimum CET until the 14th is 0.3C, slightly colder than February and a full 1C colder than January.

[Summer Sun]

3.5c to the 14th