March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Summer Sun]

"The average temperature for the month so far, combining day and night, has been around 3C, well below the long term average of 6C. It’s highly unlikely to be record breaking (the coldest March on record was in 1962, at 1.9C), but it could well be the coldest for over 25 years."

http://news.sky.com/story/1068530/weather-body-found-in-floods-rain-and-snow

[hillbilly]

Coldest September to March period since 1986 looking almost certain.

If we can go sub 3 this month, we'll make the top 15 coldest September to March periods since 1900, and top 5 since 1950.

just to add 1986 had the coldest april for 60 years @ 5.8

[Roger J Smith]

Quote Craig Evans:

"Where's Tamara G, Snowmaiden and Stratos Ferric? They should see this."

They should be able to see it, if they're tall enough to reach above the drifts.

[The PIT]

Pretty confident we're going to record our coldest March ever. Now down to 2.2C Sky is wrong by the way that March the average was 6.0C see below

1963 -2.1 -0.7 6.0 8.7 10.6 14.9 15.2 14.3 12.9 11.1 8.2 2.6 8.47

Edited March 23, 2013 by The PIT

[reef]

Hadley is still 3.6C to the 22nd.

[Summer Sun]

Global warning on TWO has revised his final figure down

My final CET estimate has now come down to 2.92C and that still includes a slight warm up in the final few days of the month. If that does not happen, which is quite possible, then a final figure around 2.7C would be closer to the mark.

Coldest March for the CET area since 1892 (2.7C) or even 1883 (1.9C) still looking possible.

My daily CET estimates for the next 5 days are as follows:

23rd 0.0C (date record -0.8C 1837, 1899)

24th -0.8C (date record -0.6C 1879)

25th 0.0C (date record -1.3C 1853)

26th -0.2C (date record -0.3C 1879, 1901)

27th 0.3C (date record +0.1C 1901)

Coldest mean for the 23rd-27th in the CET series is 0.32C (1879). That could be under threat.

[Relativistic]

Global warning on TWO has revised his final figure down

I'd love to see a date record broken.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Pretty confident we're going to record our coldest March ever. Now down to 2.2C Sky is wrong by the way that March the average was 6.0C see below

1963 -2.1 -0.7 6.0 8.7 10.6 14.9 15.2 14.3 12.9 11.1 8.2 2.6 8.47

you've shown 1963 - 1962 was the cold march and that is what it says in Gavin's quote.

Not sure what average Sky are using, not the CET obviously as it is looking increasingly likely that it will be broken based on todays 12z runs - I'd put it as about 40% chance at this point.

[Weather-history]

Some possibilities (1961-90 averages)

March colder than a January, last occasion was 2008

March colder than a colder than average January, last occasion was 1888

March colder than February was 1995

March colder than a colder than average February was 1892

March colder than January and February, last occasion was 1937

March colder than a colder than average January and February, last occasion was 1786

March colder than the winter CET, last occasion was 1995

March colder than a colder than average winter was 1962

Edited March 23, 2013 by Weather-history

[March Blizzard]

So we're looking likely to beat a record that has theoretically stood for 227 years? Incredible.

Edited March 23, 2013 by March Blizzard

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Some possibilities (1961-90 averages)

March colder than a January, last occasion was 2008

March colder than a colder than average January, last occasion was 1888

March colder than February was 1995

March colder than a colder than average February was 1892

March colder than January and February, last occasion was 1937

March colder than a colder than average January and February, last occasion was 1786

March colder than the winter CET, last occasion was 1995

March colder than a colder than average winter was 1958

How would that compare against 1971 to 2000 averages? Or is that a tricky question?

[stewfox]

Some possibilities (1961-90 averages)

March colder than a colder than average January, last occasion was 1888

March colder than a colder than average January and February, last occasion was 1786

Given an average January is going to be colder then a average February if March 1888 was colder then a average Jan it would have been colder then a average Feb by default. ??

[March Blizzard]

Given an average January is going to be colder then a average February if March 1888 was colder then a average Jan it would have been colder then a average Feb by default. ??

It says colder than average January, not average Jan. The last time March was colder than January was just 5 years ago.

[Weather-history]

Given an average January is going to be colder then a average February if March 1888 was colder then a average Jan it would have been colder then a average Feb by default. ??

I was comparing against 1961-90 averages to give a familiar reference frame and I point out against 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages, January and February were the same. So your point is actually irrelevant in this case.

[Weather-history]

How would that compare against 1971 to 2000 averages? Or is that a tricky question?

Not much change, March colder than a colder than average February last occasion would be 1916

[stewfox]

I was comparing against 1961-90 averages to give a familiar reference frame and I point out against 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages, January and February were the same. So your point is actually irrelevant in this case.

You need to clarify what you mean thats all

IF Jan and FEB CET are same 1888 would still apply

If your saying March 1786 was colder then Jan and Feb of 1786 then thats fine

Semantics but again. What you posted didnt make sense

It says colder than average January, not average Jan. The last time March was colder than January was just 5 years ago.

Colder then average January but not a average January again makes no sense.

Average Jan by CET value isnt hard to get.

Edited March 23, 2013 by stewfox

[Weather-history]

Colder then average January but not a average January again makes no sense.

Average Jan by CET value isnt hard to get.

I said that, I don't know what your issue is

March colder than a colder than average January and February, last occasion was 1786

Edited March 23, 2013 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

you've shown 1963 - 1962 was the cold march and that is what it says in Gavin's quote.

Not sure what average Sky are using, not the CET obviously as it is looking increasingly likely that it will be broken based on todays 12z runs - I'd put it as about 40% chance at this point.

Sorry I saw another quote that said 1963 but Sky are still wrong. Anyway what are the chances of two spring months being colder than two winter months? I don't think it's ever happened.

Edited March 23, 2013 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

In 355 winter seasons this would be the 17th occasion when March was colder than the three winter months and the 16th time it was the coldest month including November. Meanwhile November has scored eleven times on the three winter months and three of those were also cases where March "scored" and in those three cases, March leads November 2-1.

The most decisive March victory over the winter months was probably 1883 (1.9 was 2.0 colder than Dec 1882).

The best showing by November was perhaps 1919 which was 1.9 colder (at 3.3) than Jan 1920.

The last time November was coldest was in 1988, the last time March was coldest, 1949.

For April, that month has never been the coldest of its winter season (although in theory it could be if the right April hit the right season). The closest April ever came to beating all three winter months was 1989 (missed by 0.7) but in that case it was 1.4 behind the coldest month, November 1988. That beats two other cases where April came within 1.5 deg of being coldest.

The best October ever managed was 2.2 degrees warmer than the coldest winter month and 2.6 degrees warmer than all five November to March.

[Weather-history]

We are now at the stage of the month that in both for March 1987 and 2006, it became noticeably milder

The last 9 days for March 1987 had a CET of 6.9

The last 8 days for March 2006 had a CET of 10.2

Manley CET by Philip Eden is now 3.4C up to 23rd

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Edited March 24, 2013 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Sibera Sheffield down to 2.1C shows what a difference missing out on the warm days makes to the average.

[The watcher]

I think the nearest shout I seen to where it looks like we are heading (around 3c) was a 4.7/4.8c. Le Harve did say 4.4c but changed his mind to 5.8c on the 1st of the month. When was the last time the closest call was nearly 2c out. Crazy.

[stewfox]

I said that, I don't know what your issue is

March colder than a colder than average January and February, last occasion was 1786

Apologies I get it 'average January and February for that year'

1888.... 3.1c CET for March colder then the Jan CET of 3.2c but not the Feb CET of 1.8c

1786.. 2.1 CET for March colder then the Jan CET of 2.7c and Feb CET 3.4c

[Relativistic]

Is this a new date record for the max...?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCETx_act_graphEX.gif

Mean at 3.4C by the way.

Edited March 24, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Stu_London]

06z GFS might be a reality check.

Mins not so severe this week and a BIG warmup in the last few days.

I would say sub 4 looks in the bag, but thoughts of sub 3 can be banished if that comes anywhere near fruition