March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[johnholmes]

that still rounds out at 3C W-h?

[Weather-history]

that still rounds out at 3C W-h?

Yes but the point was made it hasnt gone below 3 yet, 2.96 is below 3 and the figure I quote is the Met Office's own figure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

So my comment is correct. I could argue that we are at zero for this month if we round to the nearest multiple of 10.

[Stu_London]

I'm with Weather History on this one 2.96 is definately a lower number than 3.

Ok - if that was the final figure then it would go down in history as being 3.0 - but it isn't and there are two more days of data - but as things stand we are sub 3

[johnholmes]

I agree with you W-h, just me being predantic.

I have just been scrolling through my copy of CET data from 1900. This month is going to be one to tell the grand kids down the years, certainly in terms of temperatures.

The 113 year average for March is 5.9C, the average from 2000 is 6.8C. There have only been 12 occasions when the March CET came in under 4C, this looks like being the 13th. The last one under 4C was 1970 with 3.7C then 1969 with 3.3 and 1962 with 2.8C the lowest ever. So record books will be thumbed through in many parts of the country. Not just for temperature either, days with frost and snow falling and lying may well tumble for some.

I have posted before that IF the same synoptics had occurred in mid winter then we could have had a truly unforgettable winter.

This last month or so has really put to bed the idea that we cannot get the synoptics to give severe wintry weather for the UK-at least it has to me.

Edited March 30, 2013 by johnholmes

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last nights minimum came in at -2.4c. Todays maximum will probably come in around 5.0c for a daily mean around 1.3c (6c below normal for the time of year)

Almost certainly 2.9c tomorrow. A very cold night to come tonight and a chilly day again tomorrow. Will probably finish on 2.9c.

Shows how woeful the GFS has been with the minima lately. Yesterdays 06z is had last night around -5C

[Stu_London]

On the subject of poor forecasting of minimas, it's been a feature of the winter.

GFS has consistently under estimated the amount of cloud cover.

As I've mentioned before, the CET for winter and I include March in that now also, could have been quite a lot lower had we experienced the levels of cloud cover we normally might expect (although in the case of March this would have produced some higher maxima)

So as others have pointed, the story this winter has been one of dramatic record breaking low maxima.

[Guest pjl20101]

I would say the ecm has outdone GFS by miles on every score this month. Then again the solar activity has a fair bit to do with CET values as well as other factors like QBO, GLAMM, PDO, MEI and AO. NAO has some bearing too IMHO.

[Weather-history]

I would say the ecm has outdone GFS by miles on every score this month. Then again the solar activity has a fair bit to do with CET values as well as other factors like QBO, GLAMM, PDO, MEI and AO. NAO has some bearing too IMHO.

AO and NAO has everything to do with it as they are just measurements of the intensity of the pressure pattern across the Arctic and North Atlantic and since they were both negative, the UK was therefore exposed to Arctic airmasses. What caused the pressure patterns to go into those configurations is the debate. I'm not convinced that solar activity has much immediate impact. Does solar activity explain why March was so cold? Why wasn't January and February as cold?

[Wynn D Woo]

Shows how woeful the GFS has been with the minima lately. Yesterdays 06z is had last night around -5C

We got down to -5.1c last night, so woeful is a bit harsh!

[Guest pjl20101]

Shall we say the activity weather history was lower in February than in January. You are correct and maybe I shouldn't trust it as much as I do.

[DAVID SNOW]

Yep its gonna be a close call for a sub 3c CET 2 days to do it today's and tomorrows sunshine could scupper it

And down to 2.9 to the 30th...

[Summer Sun]

up to 3.0c to the 30th according to Philip Eden

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Its gonna be touch and go to beat 1962 which was 2.80c

Edited March 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[Relativistic]

Looks like today will return a very low value for the CET mean. The minimum for today looks as if it may just be a record breaker for the 31st:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCETn_act_graphEX.gif

The estimated value is -4.2C. Then maxima in the CET zone can't be too high, perhaps around 5-6C. So that would give a CET mean value of around 1C, very low for the time of year.

[March Blizzard]

The March 31st date record has been smashed, it was (I think) -9.8C but -12C was apparently recorded in Braemar in the early hours of this morning. The mean CET Tmin is currently -0.1C, a massive drop from about 0.5C only a week ago. Mean Tmax is still 5.8C.

[Summer Sun]

Easter Sunday record smashed in Scotland for the lowest temperature

-12.5C was recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands

The previous modern day record was Easter Monday in 1986, which dipped to -9.8C in Lagganlia (near Kingussie)

Easter itself is a moveable celebration which falls on the Sunday after the spring full moon, and can fall anywhere between 22 March and 25 April. Only about 22% of Easters fall in March, a Met Office spokesman said.

Looking at individual nations, March 2013 is likely to be the fourth coldest on record for England, joint third coldest for Wales, joint eighth coldest for Scotland and sixth coldest for Northern Ireland.

Edited March 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the provisional figure within the CET zone there have been 19 instances this month where mean minimum have been below 0.0c. 1962 also recorded 19 instances. The average number of frosts for a typical March (1961-1990 average) is closer to 8.0

[The PIT]

We came in at 1.7C coldest March we've recorded since our records began in 1955. Last night slumped to -4.7C which nullified the days high of 5.2C somewhat. Still got Snow in the back garden as well.

Edited March 31, 2013 by The PIT

[Weather-history]

Lets put this month into perspective with regards to the last 25 years

The Hadley CET provisional is 2.9C currently

That means in the last 25 years there has only been in one colder January than this! That was January 2010. Unbelievable.

There have only been three colder Februarys! 1991, 1996 and 2010, it may only be two when the final figure comes in.

There have only been two colder Decembers, 1995 and 2010. It is equal to December 1996, currently.

I find it hard to grasp that this March is as cold as December 1996 at the moment, numerically speaking.

This March is the joint 7th coldest month of the last 25 years at this moment of time, it may turn out joint 6th if it is 2.8C and 6th if 2.7C

September 2006 CET was a sensational figure but it looks lost amongst those other high CETs of the last 25 years and also it was a time where warmth was favourable, so it increased the chance of pulling something like that off.

Very High CETs and very low CETs, IMO, are less sensational when they occur in periods that favour such outcomes such as a very high CET in a warm period and a very low CET in a cold period. They are more sensational when they crop up in contrary conditions.

December 2010 was extraordinary but if you look at the last 25 years, December had bucked the trend of the last 25 years compared to the other two winter months but with this March, if you look at the trend of the last 25 years, March has been a warm month generally, there has been only one March that was at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average and that was 1996 compare that to December with seven.

And to think there have been only two sub 5C Marches in the last 25 years.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK has just released its March statistics

CET: (Mar 1-31): 2.9°C (-3.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1-31): 72.8mm (102 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1-31): 84.2hr ( 72 per cent)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures

[sebastiaan1973]

Climate UK has just released its March statistics

CET: (Mar 1-31): 2.9°C (-3.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1-31): 72.8mm (102 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1-31): 84.2hr ( 72 per cent)

© Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures

So this is definitive CET? Or before adjustments?

[coram]

So this is definitive CET? Or before adjustments?

This is not the official CET. it is Philip Eden's version (Manley). The official one (Hadley) is out later today, unless the powers that be decide to make some adjustments.

[summer blizzard]

If were to take the 2.9C against the 1981-2010 average then bearing in mind that the 1981-2010 averages for February and March are 2.2C warmer then had this occurred in January or February it would have potentially yielded a CET of 0.7C.

At the very least its the second most anomalous month this century to date (along with December 2010 perhaps the most anomalous months since February 1986).

[Relativistic]

If were to take the 2.9C against the 1981-2010 average then bearing in mind that the 1981-2010 averages for February and March are 2.2C warmer then had this occurred in January or February it would have potentially yielded a CET of 0.7C.

At the very least its the second most anomalous month this century to date (along with December 2010 perhaps the most anomalous months since February 1986).

Against the 1961-90 averages, December 2010 had an anomaly of -5.3C, and the last month to achieve such an anomaly would be January 1963, with an anomaly of -5.9C.

[johnholmes]

Yes this March as the data is finalised is going to be a month that shows records of all kinds tumbling over many parts of the country. Be it the negative temperature anomaly, mean temperature, frosts, days with snow and lying, whatever. I would definitely rank up with December 2010 in terms of its uniqueness.

[Weather-history]

Hard to believe that March was 4.8 by the 9th on provisional figures. What are the climatic probabilities of getting a sub 3C March when the CET is already 4.8 by the 9th? Philip Eden has it 5.1C by the 10th and it still ended up below 3.0C!

I wonder when the last time a month that on average gets warmer as you progress through it ended up so far below average after the initial third was only a bit below average? It very nearly always the other way around, it starts off very cold and the last few days becomes milder or the other scenario it is persistently cold.

It ran contrary to climatic expectation, it got even colder as the month progressed, as the climate average went up, the actual readings went down.

Edited April 1, 2013 by Weather-history