March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[virtualsphere]

My 6.9C looks like a complete bust. The lowest guess was 4.4C and it would be remarkable if the end result was lower than any of the entries!

I'm starting to think this winter could have been epic if it was all shifted back about 5-6 weeks (mid-Jan just before Christmas and so on).

[AderynCoch]

Wish I was at home for this one - an impressive March CET. It could end up below 3C, which would be quite an achievement. Even the running CET for March 2006 stayed above 3C before the end-of-month mildness arrived.

[Weather-history]

March minima date records

25. -11.7 1919

26. -11.4 2008

27. -11.7 1969

28. -10.0 1969

29. -17.2 1901

30. -10.0 1941

31. -9.2 1897

Keep an eye on these. The 28th record could go.

[Weather-history]

Might be worth looking at the coldest last week of March on record for the CET.

Without looking at the figures, could be the coldest end March since at least 1901

Edited March 21, 2013 by Weather-history

[Roger J Smith]

Taking the last seven days of March, these are the lowest CET averages (1772 to 2012 which was in no danger of qualifying at 10.1) ...

0.7 ... 1785

1.4 ... 1784

1.9 ... 1901

and since 1970 the lowest three are:

3.8 ... 1975

4.2 ... 1977

4.3 ... 1996

Between 1901 and 1969 which was also 4.3, these are coldest as you go back:

2.4 ... 1952

2.1 ... 1919

Edited March 21, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Since the coldest period is likely to be Sunday to Wednesday (24th to 27th) I ran the same program and found these extremes for the four-day period:

--0.1 ... 1879

0.7 .... 1853

and more recently

1.9 .... 1969

(4.5 the coldest in past forty years, 1993 and 4.6 in 2008).

The warmest on record for this four-day period is 13.3 way back in 1777. Last year was top five at 11.1 C.

[Harve]

My 6.9C looks like a complete bust. The lowest guess was 4.4C and it would be remarkable if the end result was lower than any of the entries!

I'm starting to think this winter could have been epic if it was all shifted back about 5-6 weeks (mid-Jan just before Christmas and so on).

Had synoptics that caused the -12c uppers occurred in early January, not only would those uppers be several degrees lower, but the warmer seas would mean that convection would be absolutely insane.

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 20th

[kold weather]

What is really amazing is the fact that next week will likely see the temperature DROP....from being already a solid 2.5-3C below normal, to have an anomlay strong enough to drop thateven further in a month that is typically warmer in the 2nd half is something quite amazing.

Can't see anything above 3.5C even if we do warm up somewhat for the last few days.

1969's 3.3C looks in real danger now...and all from a first week that was average/slightly above...amazing!

One thing for sure, this month is going to stick out like a sore thumb in the last 20 years of Marches!!

Edited March 21, 2013 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Taking the last seven days of March, these are the lowest CET averages (1772 to 2012 which was in no danger of qualifying at 10.1) ...

0.7 ... 1785

1.4 ... 1784

1.9 ... 1901

and since 1970 the lowest three are:

3.8 ... 1975

4.2 ... 1977

4.3 ... 1996

Between 1901 and 1969 which was also 4.3, these are coldest as you go back:

2.4 ... 1952

2.1 ... 1919

Thanks Roger

Can't see anything above 3.5C even if we do warm up somewhat for the last few days.

Well if that was the case then that would mean March colder than January and colder than a colder than average January at that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

What is really amazing is the fact that next week will likely see the temperature DROP....from being already a solid 2.5-3C below normal, to have an anomlay strong enough to drop thateven further in a month that is typically warmer in the 2nd half is something quite amazing.

Can't see anything above 3.5C even if we do warm up somewhat for the last few days.

1969's 3.3C looks in real danger now...and all from a first week that was average/slightly above...amazing!

One thing for sure, this month is going to stick out like a sore thumb in the last 20 years of Marches!!

It's been a long time coming Kold. I made reference last year and earlier this year that the statistical elastic band was sure to snap soon. People forget how wintry March can be as Marches in recent times have been more akin to May/June

Edited March 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[Roger J Smith]

These are the daily CET records (1772 to 2012) that we will be facing now to end of March ...

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927 ..... -1.6 (1899)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. &1931)

22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... -0.9 (1837)

23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852 ..... -0.8 (1837&1899)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. &1945)

24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... -0.6 (1879)

25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... -1.3 (1853)

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... -0.3 (1879&1901)

27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ..... 0.1 (1901)

28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822 ..... -0.3 (1785)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. &1998)

29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... -0.7 (1785)

30 Mar ... 13.4 (1920) ..... 0.0 (1779)

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... -0.8 (1779)

Most of the record cold values are from about one or two centuries ago and this continues into early April (the first two days of April have record lows from 1917 when there was also a big snowfall event at least in Ireland, maybe somebody on here knows the details for England and Wales.) I was looking at some of these dates on wetterzentrale where they reconstruct the 850 mb temps, not sure how much to trust those when reconstructed but they rarely fall below -10 C as they are forecast to do next week, so one or two of these record lows could fall. The 27th (0.1, 1901) is the first non-negative record of the emerging spring season, a more general breakout starts on 4 April after which the negatives are rare (but continue as late as 19th April, 1772).

This spell is obviously an epic example of late season cold that rivals anything seen back in the day, and it seems safe to say that like December 2010, this could be the coldest March of most peoples' lifetimes, at least the second half would be.

By the way, notice the contrast of 1777 and 1779 on that list, similar to 2012-13 but they had a year to adjust in between.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Lettucing Gutted]

Might be worth looking at the coldest last week of March on record for the CET.

Without looking at the figures, could be the coldest end March since at least 1901

Also could this be coldest second half of March for the CET since at least 1962?

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe the most interesting comparison would be 11th to 31st ... here are the lowest values, not sure what the current value would be for possibly beating any of these:

1.7 ... 1785 and 1883

1.8 ... 1784 and 1837

more recently these would stand as coldest never equalled since ...

2.8 ... 1919

3.3 ... 1962

3.6 ... 1969

4.1 ... 1996

5.6 ... 2001

5.8 ... 2006

Last year by contrast ...

8.8 ... 2012

We may find 2013 appearing on this list, not sure how many "coldest since" years it can blow away, but probably all since 1962 and possibly even 1919.

Remember, this is 11th to 31st. I may boot up second half of March later, but do people consider that to be 16th to 31st or 17th to 31st?

[March Blizzard]

I would say the 1919 11th-31st period is even under threat. I always consider the 16th as the start of the second half of a month (except February, when its the 15th).

I would say the 1919 11th-31st period is even under threat. I always consider the 16th as the start of the second half of a month (except February, when its the 15th).

[hillbilly]

if you concider that jan and feb are the coldest months of winter average very similar,then the height of winter is around the end of jan .if it is possible to have severe weather in november such as 1919,1985 and 2010 being at least 8 weeks before the height of winter then 8 weeks after is the end of march being an equivalent.these may be rare events but do happen.in the 80s and 60s marches were often wintery and who remembers april 24th 1981?

[kold weather]

00z GFS moderates the cold somewhat by the end of the month, last couple of days probably putting in a mean around 4C (still rather cold for the time of year!!)...ECM remains cold throughout the end of the month.

Starting to look like we may well dip into the 2s now...but much is going to depend on just how cold the nghts can go and how much snow we can get on the ground before it all melts.

IF we do manage to get into the 2s, imagine how exceptional that is...we went over 10 years without a SINGLE winter month going below 3C...now we are on the edge of a MARCH going below 3C...things really have changed haven't they!

[Roger J Smith]

So if you wanted to look at second half (16th-31st) then the comparisons would be:

1.5 ... 1837

1.8 ... 1853

1.9 ... 1784, 1883

then coldest since

2.3 ... 1919

3.3 ... 1969

4.0 ... 1979

4.1 ... 1985

4.9 ... 1996

5.2 ... 2001

5.5 ... 2008

(in other words, nothing colder since any of those retreat points from the Little Ice Age Dalton whatever cold spell that most would say ended around 1920)

and by contrast

10.3 ... 2005

10.0 ... 1938

9.4 ... 1945

9.3 ... 2012 and other years

[Weather-history]

4.2C to the 1st

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Today's minimum is -0.4C, while maxima look like climbing close to 8C, so something close to 4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

4.1C to the 3rd (4.4)

4.3C to the 4th (4.8]

4.8C to the 5th (6.7)

5.2C to the 6th (7.5)

5.9C to the 7th (9.9)

6.6C to the 8th (11.8]

7.0C to the 9th (10.0)

A reminder of what GFS was suggesting at the start of the month.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Looking at todays GFS 6z, and ECM etc we would be looking at some chance to beat March 62. Certainly I would expect (ie greater than 50% chance) of a sub 3 cet at this point. I can't see the daily CET averaging much over 0 for most of next week. Maximums might get up slightly later if it clears, but should be counteracted by low mins. Need to average just under 1 for the rest of the period to beat 2.8.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Coldest September to March period since 1986 looking almost certain.

If we can go sub 3 this month, we'll make the top 15 coldest September to March periods since 1900, and top 5 since 1950.

[Summer Sun]

3.6c to the 21st

[Lettucing Gutted]

Coldest September to March period since 1986 looking almost certain.

If we can go sub 3 this month, we'll make the top 15 coldest September to March periods since 1900, and top 5 since 1950.

That's amazing after only one year since one of the warmest ever such periods in September 2011 through March 2012. Where's Tamara G, Snowmaiden and Stratos Ferric? They should see this. Edited March 22, 2013 by Craig Evans

[SomeLikeItHot]

3.6c to the 21st

Meaning we need an average CET of

1.5 for the remaining period to be less than 3

1.1 to equal 1962 - 2.8

0.9 to beat 1962 - 2.7

Using the current Met office forecasts and the GFS ensemble average for Oxford, it looks like averaging around 1.1 or the remaining period.

Using the ECM Op - slightly colder particularly on the easter weekend - we would get around 2.7

[Stu_London]

end of month adjustments to factor in also - although they haven't been quite the banker of a further downwards adjustment of late.