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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.html

What a chart, strong -NAO east based (pressure gradient flow Gibraltar to Reykjavik)

Low coming out of Newfoundland being disrupted heading south, while supplying WAA to Greenland. Would be nice to see this verify.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

B E A UTIFUL CHART. If you like that kind of weather of course.... now if we could just get some of these charts out of la la land and in to say t96 then this place would go into melt down.....help.gif

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

isnt the gfs the best at predicting notherlys??

Absolutely. I believe it has a 99.9% verification on Northerly's at 240hrs out!

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

isnt the gfs the best at predicting notherlys??

My god i hope so ( shame its a crap model and all output should be in the bin) joke!!!!!!! acute.gif

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

There are some remarkably similarities between the ECM and GFS 18z regarding the low to the south (with the linking of isobars) and high in the Atlantic. One thing that the ECM shows however is the low to the SW of Greenland stopping the high pressure building north into the region. GFS doesnt have this feature = better ridging.

Again however the PV to the north on the ECM is much stronger than on the GFS, if the GFS had the PV as strong as the ECM has it, those uppers later on in the run would be v.cold possibly >-12C for at least N Britain.

gfs-0-240.png?18?18ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

Edited by Panayiotis
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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

Welcome to the 1st week of spring everyone! help.gif

gfs-1-228.png?18?18

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Epic and snowy 18z which will be my 5th big let down of Winter when it disappears.

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Crucial timeframe is the last day of winter and how the belt of high pressure splits.

The 18z retrogresses most of the high west which allows an easy arctic plunge,whereas

the ecm sends a chunk of the high east which slows things down a bit.

gfs.. ecm..

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Welcome to the 1st week of spring everyone! help.gif

http://www.meteociel...&ech=228&mode=1

I would imagine our NW contingent are starting to get rather interested with these charts!

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted

I would imagine our NW contingent are starting to get rather interested with these charts!

I would imagine it will be more than just our NW friends who start to get interested if some of these charts verify! Of course, its all in la la land so feet firmly on the ground for now.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

I would imagine it will be more than just our NW friends who start to get interested if some of these charts verify! Of course, its all in la la land so feet firmly on the ground for now.

Yep, feet solidly on Terra Firma - however this has been showing it's hand for a few days now. Also, the start of the northerly comes around 204 hours so not in deep la la land!

Edited by Ice Day
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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted

Yep, feet solidly on Terra Firma - however this has been showing it's hand for a few days now. Also, the start of the northerly comes around 204 hours so not in deep la la land!

Be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days or so. I always class March as a bonus month with regards to cold/snow. Ok, ice days are almost certainly out of the question, especially as u move further into March, but i have seen snow on many occasion, and maybe this year will see a sting in winters tail! One thing for sure, viewing the models there seems to be no early signs of spring at the moment, but as we all know, things can change. Interesting few days ahead!

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted (edited)

Yep, feet solidly on Terra Firma - however this has been showing it's hand for a few days now. Also, the start of the northerly comes around 204 hours so not in deep la la land!

Slightly earlier than that, if you look at the t180 chart you can see the greenie high building that opens the door for our northerly to come...if we continue to see this over the next few days then it will almost be into reliable, until then i will not get to excited, well in secret i will....

As Cloud 10 points out it really does depend on what happens with the high.

Edited by bigsnow
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Slightly earlier than that, if you look at the t180 chart you can see the greenie high building that opens the door for our northerly to come...if we continue to see this over the next few days then it will almost be into reliable, until then i will not get to excited, well in secret i will....

As Cloud 10 points out it really does depend on what happens with the high.

Yes, we want to see this showing inside 144 before we start to get really interested! I see only 270 users on here at the moment; I would wager that may increase over the next few nights if the current trends continue.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png

And it keeps going and going with no let up insight....... after a few weeks off the booze the pub run has been in the bar with Gazza!!

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

Great 18z but when it shows countrywide snow yo know its time to be causious. You would have to favour the ECM atm... Who knows.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

Yes, we want to see this showing inside 144 before we start to get really interested! I see only 270 users on here at the moment; I would wager that may increase over the next few nights if the current trends continue.

I think the record would be in danger if tonight's 18z charts in fi come into reliable....

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted

I would imagine our NW contingent are starting to get rather interested with these charts!

Not remoteley excited as we,ve been stung too many times with charts like this, when has anything at this range ever actually become reality.
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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
Posted

Not remoteley excited as we,ve been stung too many times with charts like this, when has anything at this range ever actually become reality.

December/jan 09/10 november/december 2010 all ticked down very nicely from way out in la la land if memory serves me right..

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Not remoteley excited as we,ve been stung too many times with charts like this, when has anything at this range ever actually become reality.

Exactly.Isuppose its possible but as in the past everything gets so watered down come the time its a non event.Bit like beyonce tho,nice to look at but never within touching distancerofl.gif
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

So the 18z ensembles are out and there is actually support from the control and other members for the op,lets see how this progresses over time.

post-17320-0-07244800-1361491127_thumb.g

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