Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Not much to say at the moment GFS is out to t120 and its as you were for the UK with high pressure dominating

UKMO is at t96

Uppers at t72

Edited February 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[shaky]

Well why don't you help the moral of the forum and put together a big constructive post then since your the ones with all the time ?!! ;-p

Thanks for replying mr icyyy blaaast!!in due time i shall!!let things get a bit more interesting !!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thanks for replying mr icyyy blaaast!!in due time i shall!!let things get a bit more interesting !!!

In the mean time .

No warmth in sight

[karlos1983]

Primed and ready Northerly?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Blooming heck guys

We can see the high pressure is in a much more favourable position with good ridging toward Greenland, and moving ever close aswell.

Good upgrade this evening

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

BLIMEY

Shame it is a million miles away in a far far away galaxy in time lol, Oh and the GFS and low res.

Edited February 21, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[stodge]

Afternoon all

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

More encouragement, it would seem, for fans of cold. The Greenland High continues to block down into the Atlantic and thus opens the door to the north. Certainly nothing terribly spring-like in thie Op output thus far and you'd have to say a succession of GFS output has backed away from the west-based negative NAO scenario as well but we'll see where future output takes us.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Atlantic well and truly blocked off, the only low pressure is coming from the arctic

And just for fun but really highlights the potential hear

[Dean E]

From what I've seen over the past few days ANYTHING could happen past +120hrs...

GFS 12z is again teasing us again with its perfect Greenland block. One thing we can be more confident on, nothing average is appearing on the models at this juncture.

SM

[Cloud 10]

GFS 12z pulling out all the stops this evening with snow down into North Africa!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Spring snow anyone?. The daffs would look lovely coated in snow, if they survived that is.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

GFS 12z pulling out all the stops this evening with snow down into North Africa!

We can see we really pull a piece of the vortex down the country hear. Interesting times

[Methuselah]

Absolutely stunning charts. So stunning in fact that words fail me. Pity it's not going to come-off though...

[mushymanrob]

Atlantic well and truly blocked off, the only low pressure is coming from the arctic

And just for fun but really highlights the potential hear

ill worry about those charts when they show within a reliable timeframe! atm the chances of something that severe happening are rare. after all it was only a couple of days ago that f.i. was showing something totally opposite.

[be cause]

This time the charts and my opinions combine so be ready Be Cause ...

Absolutely stunning charts. So stunning in fact that words fail me. Pity it's not going to come-off though...

[SE Blizzards]

Well well well, another GFS run, and another big fat NO to spring!!!

Edited February 21, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[chris55]

The possible Atlantic phasing we were looking at yesterday has all but disappeared from the output today, we look to be trending towards a more dominant Greenland ridge/Scandi trough with the pattern edging east all the time. Certainly has potential.

This is probably my favourite chart from the 12z, heavy snow pushing down from the north west on a stalling and snowbearing trough!!

Edited February 21, 2013 by chris55

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

ill worry about those charts when they show within a reliable timeframe! atm the chances of something that severe happening are rare. after all it was only a couple of days ago that f.i. was showing something totally opposite.

Bah humbug . Seriously though it must be quite a rare occurrence to see charts like this so late in the season

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish - cold right into next week..

[phil nw.]

The trend continues to send some ridging into the Canadian Maritimes in the HR part of the GFS along with a developing trough to our north showing signs of digging down towards the UK.

Whether we end up with a solution like the later frames of the 12z remains to be seen but the mean hts from the earlier runs do show a cold looking NW jet around day 10.

The Scandi.high is only easing west slowly and will be around the UK for much of next week by the looks of it so any interest on an Arctic spell is very much around the start of the new month.

Meantime we have this a bitterly cold easterly for a few days and the surface will still be chilly next week with frosts around as the high builds over the UK.

[mushymanrob]

Well well well, another GFS run, and another big fat NO to spring!!!

how do you make that out? the end of the run has the atlantic and mild springlike weather yet again predicted. talk about selective chart picking!

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

besides, spring isnt a weather type, its a season that starts on march 1st!

Bah humbug . Seriously though it must be quite a rare occurrence to see charts like this so late in the season

not really, my first few weeks of work are often met with nighttime frosts and snow showers. i dont expect the current gfs in fi to varify, but a toned down version might.

besides, i remember the dreaded spring of 75, where a northerly took hold in the first week of march and stayed 3 months. the spring wasnt very snowy, just cold and quite sunny.

Edited February 21, 2013 by mushymanrob

[sundog]

March to come in like a Lion this year? Well it certainly has potential atm looking at the charts. Winter could spring a trap for the start of spring lol.

[mushymanrob]

the gfs anomaly charts do not agree with the op run, although the ecm does trend towards it. until these charts agree there must be considerable doubt over this fi northerly.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[SE Blizzards]

how do you make that out? the end of the run has the atlantic and mild springlike weather yet again predicted. talk about selective chart picking!

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html

besides, spring isnt a weather type, its a season that starts on march 1st!

Maybe there is milder temps at the end of the run, but that's deep into FI so good luck with that!

And by the looks of things it seems spring won't be starting on march 1st this year, or should i say it wont be feeling much like spring anyway! But if u can find me a chart for march 1st that has a warm spring look about it then i will stand corrected!

Edited February 21, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Maybe there is milder temps at the end of the run, but that's deep into FI so good luck with that!

And by the looks of things it seems spring won't be starting on march 1st this year, or should i say it wont be feeling much like spring anyway!

I've always thought 1st day of spring was March 21st