Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[nick sussex]

Tonights NOAA extended discussion is a very good read. Certainly if you're reading both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks its hard to imagine a return to milder conditions any time soon.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

For the UK its very much a finely balanced scenario because with energy continuing to head south and some blocking to the nw its really whether you get enough energy heading into southern Europe and not attacking the UK at the weak point which is what often happens when you have a more western based negative NAO.

So I think you can make a case for very cold then trending to slightly below average and then the question mark regarding whether a northerly appears.

Edited February 20, 2013 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

Tonights NOAA extended discussion is a very good read. Certainly if you're reading both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks its hard to imagine a return to milder conditions any time soon.

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

looking at the 8/14 dayer, as the ridge pulls back west, what gets here first? the atlantic trough or the scandi one? the ecm 12z is one from nowhere with the mean trough stuck pretty well over the uk by day 10. cant take that too seriously but the lack of consistency does mean that all solutions should remain 'on the table'.

[nick sussex]

looking at the 8/14 dayer, as the ridge pulls back west, what gets here first? the atlantic trough or the scandi one? the ecm 12z is one from nowhere with the mean trough stuck pretty well over the uk by day 10. cant take that too seriously but the lack of consistency does mean that all solutions should remain 'on the table'.

Yes that's also something Snowking alluded to with the race of the troughs, hard to say which one wins, maybe we can do something to derail the Atlantic one?!

[bluearmy]

Yes that's also something Snowking alluded to with the race of the troughs, hard to say which one wins, maybe we can do something to derail the Atlantic one?!

well the ecm mean and spreads certainly are in the scandi trough corner. (not too surprising given the tone of the op run)

[Stuie]

I'm not absolutely sure Ian will be around in the next 4 or 5 days as he posted last week about having leave time off from being on BBC

Points West from today until next Monday.

Ian isn`t ever really round, he is anticyclonic.

Sunday/Monday, (poor timing from a personal point of view) but there is actually some half decent precipitation compared to the latter end of the week/weekend.

This could manifest into an event with nominal -6 uppers Sunday evening for Anglia and Kent.

With the precipitation set to continue into Monday, yet another "marginal" (becoming a cliche) scenario, the precipitation is there but will it be cold enough. I will go for this not to be a transitional snow/rain, to just a snow/snow. (yip a punt/guess but ave made worse)

Next week as a whole could be very interesting if going by the ECM, the tail end that is. March spring? not yet. The high pressure is greenland is not that far off the high pressure that sat over Russia earlier this winter. (Wasn`t it 1050?)

Just a wee ramble.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM short ensemble is certainly trending milder tonight

As is the full ensemble

Edited February 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[weather eater]

Yeah maybe that the bbc forecast only covers Matlock 8miles from my village and 120m lower so guess that helps a little too.

Doesn’t surprise me it always seems two degrees colder in Buxton than here, it’s only 8 miles but it’s a fair bit higher, go the other way down the A6 and Stockport is two degrees higher than here.

[winterof79]

The ECM short ensemble is certainly trending milder tonight

As is the full ensemble

The reason being that the easterly flow subsides and high pressure exerts itself.Not the usual return to mild S/Westerlys.

Edited February 20, 2013 by winterof79

[Mair Snaw]

Doesn’t surprise me it always seems two degrees colder in Buxton than here, it’s only 8 miles but it’s a fair bit higher, go the other way down the A6 and Stockport is two degrees higher than here.

Buxtons always cold....ive had snow here and gone to the next village and they had rain!! i guess that its only a few residential property here could help temps be a little lower? so i tend to look at the bbc and take 2c off for daytime and a bit more at night. sleet in next village normally means snow for me. same in the summer rain here sun elsewhere. december 2010 we needed a jcb to unblock our driveway....

[Snowman.]

18z worse than the 12z pushes it east with more energy over...

Where have I seen that before

[Mair Snaw]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

not the best chart of the day, the high on the pub run gets the brewers....

[Captain Shortwave]

18z worse than the 12z pushes it east with more energy over...

Where have I seen that before

Perversely this is a lot closer to the ECM and UKMO runs this afternoon, more energy goes over the top creating the gap for the high to try and link up with the heights over North East Canada.

On the other hand, the GFS seems keen to leave a shortwave over Greenland which kind of blocks the highs retrogression westwards

Edited February 20, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

the lack of postings tells me that there isnt enough enthusiasm for another go as per the 12z ecm run. interesting day 4 fax looks akin to the T96 gfs precip chart.

[chris55]

Unstable northerly inbound,

[karlos1983]

Not looking very spring like

Edited February 20, 2013 by karlos1983

[chris55]

The entire UK with snow,

[Cheshire Freeze]

the lack of postings tells me that there isnt enough enthusiasm for another go as per the 12z ecm run. interesting day 4 fax looks akin to the T96 gfs precip chart.

GFS 18z FI very wintry with some low thicknesses to boot.

[chris55]

Crazy GFS FI.

A lot of heavy snow about on this chart,

[Mair Snaw]

GFS 18z FI very wintry with some low thicknesses to boot.

yes agreed a very good end to the run after a not so good start.. ( note to self wait for run to finish before posting DOH!! ) Defo something to keep and eye on over the next few days to see if this continues to come closer to reliable or if it stays out in FI

Edited February 20, 2013 by bigsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well as per discussions earlier, I think we are seeing the signal of prolonged cold getting picked up on. ECM T216 to T240 doesn't look right, AZH HP regaining some strength? Not for me, LP bomb to continue to drop from E Greenland.

BFTP

Edited February 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

The pub run has defo fallen off the wagon !

[nick sussex]

The northerly tease continues with the GFS 18hrs run but still doesn't quite deliver, its crucial here to get the pattern further east and south before the Atlantic attack otherwise you end up stuck with troughing over the UK.

Interestingly the longstanding limpet east Pacific ridge decides to finally relent, shame it didn't do this a month ago. Remember here bog standard 850's won't cut it because of the increase in solar energy so you need to chase the coldest source.

This will only get advected south with the pattern further se, its a small step however and a trend in the right direction for those wanting a spring reminder of winter but gets a stingy 6/10 from me.

Time for more changes and we have seen a move from some of the operational runs today, we'll see if that move gathers pace over the next few days.

[Barry12]

Well as per discuaaions earlier, I think we are seeing the signal of prolonged cold getting picked up on. ECM T216 to T240 doesn't look right, AZH HP regaining some strength? Not for me, LP bomb to continue to drop from E Greenland.

BFTP

Nope...not gonna happen unfortunately. I believe after this week winter will be ended.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A definite shift, Dave. Have we all been blindsided by the weather again?

Not really Pete, I picked up on this a couple of days ago that BBC were predicting temps above what should be expected and it was taken as a constant dig at MetO. There's no shift IMO, we were always likely to be petty cold and getting bitterly cold. Mention tonight of potential more increased snow chances into weekend, I suspect the story isn't over yet.

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nope...not gonna happen unfortunately. I believe after this week winter will be ended.

Did you believe that winter was even going to return ? No unfortunately about it, it hasn't happened yet and I suspect it may well do.

BFTP

Edited February 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST