Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[Mair Snaw]

And wouldn't it be refreshing to have some balanced posting that didnt have some sort of inherent IMBYism and a senseless theme of writing off any cold spell unless theres snow shown in your own location?

For example, heres a quote of yours:

I'm not meaning to sound confrontational, but perhaps a little more balance and consistency to posts might be in order?

So, we could, for example, take a look at the higher resolution GFS output for the timeframe you have posted above, allowing us to examine more closely where the precipitation is located:

With that in mind, we could suggest that there may some some light snowfall across the Pennines area, and then down towards the humber, into southern yorkshire, lincolnshire, the midlands, east anglia, southeast england, and central southern england, even bordering into the westcountry

Of course, we could also suggest that the GFS ppn charts tend to be a little over the top

Kind Regards

SK

Top post and as ever one of the posters that i look for when catching up on this thread, just out of interest is there any reason why both charts show something different??

Also would like to see the south get some snow for a change, ive had my fix this winter with 21 days of lying snow plus other days with snow falling but not settling. only thing ive missed this winter is the lack of good hard frosts, i think ive only had 12 odd days with frost in the morning and only 2 days of frost lasting all day, been a very cloudy winter so far, hope the next few days can change that.

Edited February 20, 2013 by bigsnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

note the latest NAE has uppers into the se of the uk -12c widely late thursday and into friday. even a -13c popping up over EA thursday night. anyone wnat to guess the last time we had a -13c 850 temp ?

Jan 87?

BFTP

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Top post and as ever one of the posters that i look for when catching up on this thread, just out of interest is there any reason why both charts show something different??

Also would like to see the south get some snow for a change, ive had my fix this winter with 21 days of lying snow plus other days with snow falling but not settling. only thing ive missed this winter is the lack of good hard frosts, i think ive only had 12 odd days with frost in the morning and only 2 days of frost lasting all day, been a very cloudy winter so far, hope the next few days can change that.

I think thats because the one shown above is a higher resolution chart compared with the other one.

[shaky]

note the latest NAE has uppers into the se of the uk -12c widely late thursday and into friday. even a -13c popping up over EA thursday night. anyone wnat to guess the last time we had a -13c 850 temp ?

Those are seriously impressive 850s!!just look at the dewpoints frikkin -7 across england!!

[snowking]

Top post and as ever one of the posters that i look for when catching up on this thread, just out of interest is there any reason why both charts show something different??

Hi bigsnow

The reason here is that HC posted from the UKMO, where as the chart I posted came from the GFS

On this topic, just taking a quick run through some of the higher resolution outputs for Friday:

NAE keen on bringing some light snow flurries in through the Humber estuary and other parts of East Yorkshire, and another line of showers in through parts of East Anglia, and through to the M4 border counties

4km resolution WRF german output (unfortunately being German only shows a small section of the UK)

Up until midnight paints a similar picture to the NAE.

SK

Edited February 20, 2013 by snowking

[Mair Snaw]

I think thats because the one shown above is a higher resolution chart compared with the other one.

So one more accurate than the other i take it?? many thanks for the reply.

[nick sussex]

note the latest NAE has uppers into the se of the uk -12c widely late thursday and into friday. even a -13c popping up over EA thursday night. anyone wnat to guess the last time we had a -13c 850 temp ?

I wonder what values that same cold pool could have brought at the end of January? perhaps sub -15c. Certainly is impressive given the time of year, shame we didn't have that deep instability, could have been some major fireworks!

Still at least theres some snow potential and certainly better than what was expected a few days back.

[Mair Snaw]

Hi bigsnow

The reason here is that HC posted from the UKMO, where as the chart I posted came from the GFS

On this topic, just taking a quick run through some of the higher resolution outputs for Friday:

NAE keen on bringing some light snow flurries in through the Humber estuary and other parts of East Yorkshire, and another line of showers in through parts of East Anglia, and through to the M4 border counties

4km resolution WRF german output (unfortunately being German only shows a small section of the UK)

Up until midnight paints a similar picture to the NAE.

SK

Thanks SK keep up the good posting..

[bluearmy]

Jan 87?

BFTP

more recent than that fred. if we maybe take scotland out of this. i think feb 2010 had -12c skirting through kent

[Suburban Streamer]

note the latest NAE has uppers into the se of the uk -12c widely late thursday and into friday. even a -13c popping up over EA thursday night. anyone wnat to guess the last time we had a -13c 850 temp ?

feb 2nd 2009?

Edited February 20, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Summer Sun]

Wouldn't it be ironic if all eyes where down on the south east, while the north east ended up getting all the snow haha

The latest BBC weather forecast on BBC one shows the snow confined to NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire where it may turn heavier on Saturday, they show no snow for the south on Saturday as things stand

Just in-case no one saw it here it is

Edited February 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Methuselah]

The latest BBC weather forecast on BBC one shows the snow confined to NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire where it may turn heavier on Saturday, they show no snow for the south on Saturday as things stand

Bugger!

[shaky]

The latest BBC weather forecast on BBC one shows the snow confined to NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire where it may turn heavier on Saturday, they show no snow for the south on Saturday as things stand

Oh well am gona take the middle ground solution then which is.................THE MIDLANDS IS GOING TO GET ABSOLUTELY POUNDED!!

[Kentspur]

Same old onions for the southeast then? I'll be in Cambridge on Sunday and center parcs Suffolk from Monday morning forward week wonder what's the betting a Thames streamer sets up when I'm away Monday would be bloody typical!

Edited February 20, 2013 by Kentspur

[SMU]

• http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013022012/ECH1-168.GIF?20-0
  

Goodbye Spring.

Northerly building.

S

[nick sussex]

Oh no its the return of the BBC Snow blob graphics drama! That snow shown is in relation to a trough shown on the UKMO fax charts. In terms of the ECM at 168hrs a bit better than this morning, will the 192hrs deliver a mega tease or bitter disappointment!

[shaky]

• http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013022012/ECH1-168.GIF?20-0
  

Goodbye Spring.

Northerly building.

S

Massive change at just 168 hrs!!maybe cfs is right?

[chris55]

ECM 168, decent profile out to the west for a potential northerly.

[Mair Snaw]

• http://www.meteociel...H1-168.GIF?20-0
  

Goodbye Spring.

Northerly building.

S

Are we nearly at the BOOMAGE stage??

[LomondSnowstorm]

The latest BBC weather forecast on BBC one shows the snow confined to NE England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire where it may turn heavier on Saturday, they show no snow for the south on Saturday as things stand

Just in-case no one saw it here it is

Yes, things are looking potentially interesting into southeast Scotland too now, which didn't look all that likely a few days ago.

As for deep cold uppers I don't remember the last time we had those over mainland Scotland either, with a lack of proper Arctic northerlies in the last two winters. This is perhaps a good bet:

[nick sussex]

Oh no its the return of the BBC Snow blob graphics drama! That snow shown is in relation to a trough shown on the UKMO fax charts. In terms of the ECM at 168hrs a bit better than this morning, will the 192hrs deliver a mega tease or bitter disappointment!

I'd call that a semi-tease! Certainly the UKMO and ECM at 144hrs are better for retrogression,with the now to be named retrogression gap! Its between those two lows to the sw and nw, you need that gap to appear to allow the high room to edge west.

Edited February 20, 2013 by nick sussex

[chris55]

ECM 192, not overly clear cut but a northerly coming I should think.

Edited February 20, 2013 by chris55

[cooling climate]

ECM t240 and a much more potent easterly could be in the offering, with pressure rising over

Scandinavia as the trough over Iceland cuts southeast. Very promising and only 240 hours

away lol.

[Mair Snaw]

something building here i think.... http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?20-0

Edit: cc beat me to it.

Edited February 20, 2013 by bigsnow

[SMU]

If ECM varifies there will be no warm up for england, just a couple of less cold days at the mid point of next week...

Low heights & slack air will see widespread frosts overnight- & low single digit maxima in the day time- but may still feel pleasent-

Cold with snow over the UK at day 10-

S