Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS has the HP drifting back to Scandi, shame there isn't a mega cold pool for us to tap into.

[frosty ground]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Low pressure developing to the west of Greenland is a good development if you want to tap into the arctic air moving into Scandi

[Snowman.]

The GFS has the HP drifting back to Scandi, shame there isn't a mega cold pool for us to tap into.

How ironic that the same energy south of Greenland is stopping the retrogression into Greenland and its the same energy that was modelled to go under and give us a classic easterly...

I'm not looking for warmth yet as its only march so I wouldn't expect anything yet.

[Panayiotis]

Just seen the 00z ECM and now that is has picked upon a good signal if want snow and cold we are going to want it to show consistency, because when the ECM is consistent, as we all know that signal is more or less correct.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[nick sussex]

This retrogression tease is still there, still a longshot but the models haven't shut the door on it yet.

The UKMO IMO looks a bit better for that at 144hrs with that gap opening up between the two lows, ideally the low to the north trundles east then se the high squeezes through that gap and starts retrogressing, the low to the far sw supports the high as it moves and bingo.

That's my positive spin on things, I certainly would be interested to see what the ECM does this evening, so realistically its still a long haul to get everything set up to deliver a northerly with worries about the pattern being too far west but whilst the teases remain I'm happy to sit on the fence!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I feel that the cold bias will progressively become replaced by warm bias over the next few months as many people's thoughts turn towards that first BBQ and the first days of being able to sit out in the sun during the evenings, etc. I am hoping that the more technical model threads will stay and will remain pretty objective while the main model thread runs its usual course.

The one thing that I'll flag up, though, is the misconception that those who retain an interest in snow during the spring months are the die-hard snow nuts who are interested only in snow- this sometimes makes for rather heated arguments when northerlies show up during April. On the contrary, there are many "weather lovers" who are interested in a wide range of weather types which can include spring warmth and/or spring snowfalls.

On the other hand, some synoptic weather types do increasing switch as we head through the season. The current synoptics might well have brought sunshine and snow showers had it been January, but come late February the continent warms up and the North Sea cools off, which results in relatively limited instability, and increased chance of getting stratocumulus trapped underneath an inversion. Thus, during March and April, easterlies are mostly grey and cold in eastern areas, unless they are sourced from a long way north (leading to sunny spells and snow showers) or bring a dry airmass and short sea track (in which case it can end up dry and sunny).

This is also why those hoping for a snowy spell in the near future are right to pin hopes on a Greenland high as this will help to bring our air down from the north, and Arctic airmasses are normally cold and quite unstable at this time of year (increased solar heating also helps to set off showery activity inland, as happened in late-February of 1993, 2001 and 2004) though if it is based too far west we could get an eastern-Atlantic trough which I feel may be the most likely result.

[weather eater]

So west based again, very consistent from the GFS, I think it’s likely to be on the ball but as we have seen so many times, consistency is no guarantee.

I feel that the cold bias will progressively become replaced by warm bias over the next few months as many people's thoughts turn towards that first BBQ and the first days of being able to sit out in the sun during the evenings, etc.

Only done that a handful of times since I moved up here, maybe I’m just soft and southern and not hard and northern enough, beginning to doubt whether the north has summers just spring autumn and winter.

Edited February 20, 2013 by weather eater

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

So west based again, very consistent from the GFS, I think it’s likely to be on the ball but as we have seen so many times, consistency is no guarantee.

The GFS could bow out of winter smoking a big fat cigar and sticking 2 fingers up to all the doubters (including me).

[Summer Sun]

UKMO keeps things very settled into next week

Pretty much inline with GFS

All we need to get agreement on now is the positioning of the high which will be crucial for how much sun we can get

[johnholmes]

I feel that the cold bias will progressively become replaced by warm bias over the next few months as many people's thoughts turn towards that first BBQ and the first days of being able to sit out in the sun during the evenings, etc. I am hoping that the more technical model threads will stay and will remain pretty objective while the main model thread runs its usual course.

The one thing that I'll flag up, though, is the misconception that those who retain an interest in snow during the spring months are the die-hard snow nuts who are interested only in snow- this sometimes makes for rather heated arguments when northerlies show up during April. On the contrary, there are many "weather lovers" who are interested in a wide range of weather types which can include spring warmth and/or spring snowfalls.

I hope Ian that the same degree of tolerance for those of a mild disposition will be shown as has through winter to those with a cold disposition as we progress through meteorological spring.

If it is the same as other years then some will still be harping on about cold come meteorological summer!

[Summer Sun]

Saturday currently looks like been the day to see the greatest snow risk especially but not exclusively in the south

[weather eater]

The GFS could bow out of winter smoking a big fat cigar and sticking 2 fingers up to all the doubters (including me).

I’d still follow the ECM over the GFS but sometimes the GFS pulls the trump card and frequently both of them are wrong.

[mushymanrob]

I hope Ian that the same degree of tolerance for those of a mild disposition will be shown as has through winter to those with a cold disposition as we progress through meteorological spring.

If it is the same as other years then some will still be harping on about cold come meteorological summer!

pity we cant just talk about weather....

not sure why so much weight is being put on an fi greenland high, the anomoly charts dont yet hint of any such feature, and the gfs in fi has also shown and continues to show a much milder suggestion.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

pity we cant just talk about weather....

not sure why so much weight is being put on an fi greenland high, the anomoly charts dont yet hint of any such feature, and the gfs in fi has also shown and continues to show a much milder suggestion.

I think so much hope is due to the fact it's probably the one last hope left for winter weather before we enter spring proper.

[Harsh Climate]

Wouldn't it be ironic if all eyes where down on the south east, while the north east ended up getting all the snow haha

[snowking]

Wouldn't it be ironic if all eyes where down on the south east, while the north east ended up getting all the snow haha

And wouldn't it be refreshing to have some balanced posting that didnt have some sort of inherent IMBYism and a senseless theme of writing off any cold spell unless theres snow shown in your own location?

For example, heres a quote of yours:

Not this lame easterly later this week that probably won't produce any more than a bit of wet snow in the south east.

I'm not meaning to sound confrontational, but perhaps a little more balance and consistency to posts might be in order?

So, we could, for example, take a look at the higher resolution GFS output for the timeframe you have posted above, allowing us to examine more closely where the precipitation is located:

With that in mind, we could suggest that there may some some light snowfall across the Pennines area, and then down towards the humber, into southern yorkshire, lincolnshire, the midlands, east anglia, southeast england, and central southern england, even bordering into the westcountry

Of course, we could also suggest that the GFS ppn charts tend to be a little over the top

Kind Regards

SK

Edited February 20, 2013 by snowking

[Harsh Climate]

And wouldn't it be refreshing to have some balanced posting that didnt have some sort of inherent IMBYism and a senseless theme of writing off any cold spell unless theres snow shown in your own location?

For example, heres a quote of yours:

I'm not meaning to sound confrontational, but perhaps a little more balance and consistency to posts might be in order?

So, we could, for example, take a look at the higher resolution GFS output for the timeframe you have posted above, allowing us to examine more closely where the precipitation is located:

With that in mind, we could suggest that there may some some light snowfall across the Pennines area, and then down towards the humber, into southern yorkshire, lincolnshire, the midlands, east anglia, southeast england, and central southern england, even bordering into the westcountry

Of course, we could also suggest that the GFS ppn charts tend to be a little over the top

Kind Regards

SK

If you manage to get upset over the post I just made, I suggest you take a little time out mate. Chill

And I stand by that, I don't think there will be much in the way of snow accumulations at all this week. That post that's just upset you was just tongue in cheek while the boards are a bit slow.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred yes cold, and feel cold, maybe I should have made that more clear, I doubt very much well into march, start of more likely, also depending on cloud cover, once we lose that strong east wind day temps will not feel too bad, if and when the sun gets out, but still cold at night with potentially sharp frosts, again dependent on cloud cover, certainly a pretty cold next seven days, not bad but not a severe spell.

It may be about the cold especially how late its arriving...but yep can't argue with that post at all!

BFTP

[Methuselah]

It may be about the cold especially how late its arriving...but yep can't argue with that post at all!

BFTP

Blimey Fred, that's three of us in total agreement!

[mushymanrob]

well the models appear to be in some agreement that the high will slip eventually eastwards into the continent. i see the 12z gfs shows this into next week. i also note that the uppers are reasonable, but as an inversion is likely (is it not?) itll be quite a dirty high with alot of dull stratus.... however... as the week goes on and the airflow slackens and becomes more south of east, the cloud could burn back, especially in the west. in any sun and slack winds it will feel pleasant again.

[chris55]

Just a quick point from me on the March warmth vs March snow debate. March is a funny month where both early warmth or late snow can quite easily be delivered. So from a weather perspective we are well within the realms of reality to look out for and enjoy either weather type!

For me personally by the time March arrives I'm not really looking for prolonged cold and dry, which I very much enjoy in the earlier winter months, but that heavy snowfall, which is possible is always on my radar.

March 04 produced a good snowstorm,

March 2012 produced a beautiful heatwave,

Both weather types were very enjoyable, however you can't get snowfall in June, but you can get a heatwave, so while there is still a chance of seeing some snow thats what I mainley look out for in March, but equally if we get some early spring warmth then that's fine, and enjoyable.

So comparing current output to the two extremes above and I'd say the chances of a March snowfall are higher than a March heatwave at present, but to be honest we will probably end up with a more average March set up, but you never know.

GFS and the other models are still highlighting the risk of the more wintry option,

[bluearmy]

cut off area of lower heights just to the sw of the uk (left over euro trough from the weekend) are now repeatedly showing for next week. wouldnt take too much imagination for that to lead to some small surprises over the moors next week.

as far as the flip from winter to spring is concerned - the models will dictate that and you'll know when that time has come as steve will stop posting !!

Edited February 20, 2013 by bluearmy

[Methuselah]

Well Chris, back in June 1975, snow fell on Monday 2nd, and 27C was exceeded on Friday 6th...

And I'm rather off-topic!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blimey Fred, that's three of us in total agreement!

Save this Post!!!!! lol as we should now bin them for OT

BFTP

Edited February 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

note the latest NAE has uppers into the se of the uk -12c widely late thursday and into friday. even a -13c popping up over EA thursday night. anyone wnat to guess the last time we had a -13c 850 temp ?