Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well there would certainly be some fun and games if the latter part of the ECM verified. No ice days due to time of year but certainly some lively showers and thundersnow around!

[Snowman.]

Thats the 00z,the 12z comes out at 10pm.Its also one of the highest res models that goes out to 120hrs.

I saw. I just like it for that EXACT reason I would place a lot of faith in it actually.

[nick sussex]

The ECM can't be trusted at all, last saturday it showed a potent arctic blast for today, hmmm that went a bit wrong didn't it, now we are back to charts closer to T+200 hours, if it gets to T+72 then yes, believe it.

Yes but this isn't at T168hrs, its T96hrs because as soon as you get the ridge extending sw then the chances increase for a colder pattern.

Put it this way Frosty I was being charitable when I gave the UKMO 5% on the previous page, if the UKMO verifies then I'll probably go into my spring/summer hibernation. The ECM is dinner at the Ritz, the UKMO tonight is spam fritters!!!

The UKMO is a shocker and we'd probably be old and grey before seeing an easterly off that, or in my case greyer!

[Cheshire Freeze]

finally we see the ECM produce a run that I expected to come from the 00z .....

Very very cold unstable easterlies spreading south at 192 with -13 air over the ne.

Large discrepancies against the Ukmo which is unusual for this winter.

Gfs all at sea again.... Which has been the norm this winter

Gets there eventually Steve..

That's some really cold upper air associated with the synoptic above. I'm almost drowning in saliva just thinking about the fun associated with the ECM and latter stages of GFS 12z

[The PIT]

ECM broke records for the last cold spell it spotted. Was it at T240? Not getting excited yet until it's down to T120 mind you.

[Frosty.]

Gfs all at sea again.... Which has been the norm this winter

The Ecm has been all at sea all winter too, if the ecm had been right, we would have had a winter like 1947 and 1963 but instead we only had one snowy spell in january which was slammed on here for being synoptically pony, too much praise is heaped on the ecm but it ultimately delivers next to nothing from it's epic T+192-240 charts.

A mild week ahead, fine at first and then slowly turning unsettled.

[TEITS]

TEITS, Matt Hugo agreeing with you.....

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Details highly uncertain, but a colder E or NE'ly flow looks increasingly likely from around the 10th/11th onwards.#wintrybymidmarch

Epic ECM with widespread heavy snow showers at +216.

Im not surprised because a run like this has been brewing for some time. Having said this im not saying it's right but remains a strong possibility.

[Guest]

ECM broke records for the last cold spell it spotted. Was it at T240? Not getting excited yet until it's down to T120 mind you.

After the last few months model watching there's no point getting excited until about T-2. The ECM at +192hrs would be very interesting for Scotland, especially the east, then it gets interesting for the whole of the UK and Ireland.

[nick sussex]

If you're looking for positives in terms of the last time the ECM was a lone voice in a sea of mild mush then it was the big winter storm that hit the ne USA in February.

The only model that called that storm correctly was the ECM which developed it, the rest didn't want to know, that had repercussions on the pattern in Europe. I think I bored everyone with countless posts at the time!

[bluearmy]

Having delivered one of the warmest members over the past few 12z runs days 9 and 10, today we get the coldest. Nothing to take seriously other than its a possibility in a watered down format. The pattern whilst fitting with the uppers spreads in a broad sense are several degrees too cold wrt the 00z suite.

Anyway, at least it keeps the interest going and gives some support to the handful of coldies that are convinced that winter is not quite done.

If we get some ecm op consistency, we can begin to place some store by it over the ens. Until then, its the ens we must stick with.

[Froze were the Days]

ECM 216z - BOOOOOOOMMMMMMM!!! (You know it's not going to happen now I've typed that) - This winter has really been one of boom then bust!

[matty lfc]

TEITS 1-0 John Holmes going by tonight's ECM

[Frosty.]

Yes but this isn't at T168hrs, its T96hrs because as soon as you get the ridge extending sw then the chances increase for a colder pattern.

Put it this way Frosty I was being charitable when I gave the UKMO 5% on the previous page, if the UKMO verifies then I'll probably go into my spring/summer hibernation. The ECM is dinner at the Ritz, the UKMO tonight is spam fritters!!!

The UKMO is a shocker and we'd probably be old and grey before seeing an easterly off that, or in my case greyer!

Yes nick but I made the point about the ecm golden FI's which usually dissolve to nothing, are we all being set up for yet another let down?

[Staffordshire]

Spose one last cold spell wouldnt hurt eh? ecm 12z looking great, FI however

leave you more experienced guys to discuss now

[mushymanrob]

lol the ecm is upto its old ticks, suggesting the daddy of allcold spells as usual that never transfer from fi to reality.

i dare say we will get something colder then whats predicted within a few days. but something as outrageous as that would be a very rare event. the gfs more sober take within a similar timeframe could well be right. nothing new there then.

[nick sussex]

Yes nick but I made the point about the ecm golden FI's which usually dissolve to nothing, are we all being set up for yet another let down?

I wouldn't say letdown because its only one model going with that, its when you have cross model agreement at early timeframes that I think causes the most drama in here.

Its surprising though to see the ECM and UKMO at complete odds at T96hrs, one of them is going to look very silly tomorrow morning.

[Cheshire Freeze]

lol the ecm is upto its old ticks, suggesting the daddy of allcold spells as usual that never transfer from fi to reality.

i dare say we will get something colder then whats predicted within a few days. but something as outrageous as that would be a very rare event. the gfs more sober take within a similar timeframe could well be right. nothing new there then.

Squeaky bum time for the mild lovers eh.

Come on, you know -13 uppers and thundersnow would be fun

[Frosty.]

lol the ecm is upto its old ticks, suggesting the daddy of allcold spells as usual that never transfer from fi to reality.

i dare say we will get something colder then whats predicted within a few days. but something as outrageous as that would be a very rare event. the gfs more sober take within a similar timeframe could well be right. nothing new there then.

Yes mushy, after all the let downs (lost count) from all those epic wintry FI ECM runs, we are again in the same position, that ecm run in december springs to mind when I remember the meltdown in here a few months ago and look what happened then..nothing.

I wouldn't say letdown because its only one model going with that, its when you have cross model agreement at early timeframes that I think causes the most drama in here.

Its surprising though to see the ECM and UKMO at complete odds at T96hrs, one of them is going to look very silly tomorrow morning.

true nick, they usually stick closer together against the gfs in that range at least.

Edited March 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

Squeaky bum time for the mild lovers eh.

Come on, you know -13 uppers and thundersnow would be fun

yeah thundersnow would be interesting, never seen it.

it will cost me several hundereds of pounds per week if a freeze like that happened now, so yes potential for squeeky bum if it looks likely!

[Frosty.]

Squeaky bum time for the mild lovers eh.

Not really, it's the other way round surely, the mild spell is nailed on, the cold is not, I would be interested to know what % chances JH would give it now, was a lowly 10% yesterday but what about now....

[nick sussex]

I'm not sure if there are any horse racing fans in here but the ECM would be bad news for the Cheltenham Festival.

Not sure if it would be re-arranged if there were problems with snow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not really, it's the other way round surely, the mild spell is nailed on, the cold is not, I would be interested to know what % chances JH would give it now, was a lowly 10% yesterday but what about now....

Well personally I'm not bothered either way now, but such insane cold, unstable conditions would float my boat somewhat!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Been here before, with ECM, I do not believe that FI, thats what it is fantasy island, GFS generally more realistic in FI, ECM seems to produce fantasy Piers corbyn type stuff

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest report of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Saturday March 2nd 2013.

All models show the continued theme of a change to more unsettled weather as we move into the next working week. The High pressure currently over the UK is beginning to decline and move away to the East of the UK. Low pressure is centred out in the Atlantic and a SE flow will develop over Monday and Tuesday as pressure falls steadily. A couple of dry and milder days could be achieved over Monday and Tuesday as milder air is sucked up from the Meditteranean for a time. Troughs eventually reach into the UK from the SW and West with rain spreading slowly and erratically East and North over the UK by the end of the working week.

GFS then shows a very unsettled spell with some heavy rain and strong winds at times as Low pressures swing up from the SW. It would gradually turn colder again with time as pressure builds from the North, pushing the influence of the Low pressures further South and setting up cold Easterly winds next weekend which could turn the rain to something more wintry over the hills as the weather becomes briefly more settled and cold for a time. Later in FI though further Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic brings milder SW'lies in with rain at times before a further change to very much colder weather develops as Low pressure moves off to Scandinavia and brings a blast of cold Arctic Northerlies down over the UK to end the run with snow showers for all by day with very sharp Spring time frosts.

The GFS Ensembles show the milder uppers lasting through to the end of the working week to come, eventually feeling so at the surface early next week and at the start of the unsettled spell midweek. Later though things turn rather colder again with some quite potent cold members showing up later in the run, including the Control Run and more especially for the North.

The Jet Stream continues it's Southerly position uninterrupted for another week at least with High pressure currently over the UK supporting it along with Southerly positioned Lows next week. If tonight's longer term output verifies it will continue to be positioned well South of the UK for some considerable time enhancing the risk of cold and unsettled spring time synoptics as Northern Blocking becomes dominant yet again.

UKMO for the end of the working week looks very unsettled with deep Low pressure over Scotland and another one NE off the Azores, likely to affect the UK at the weekend with rain or heavy showers in temperatures no better than average for most.

ECM shows Low pressure held much further West with a trough over Southern Britain next Friday with some heavy rain here. Further North cold and raw, strong ESE winds will blow with overcast skies and rain at times and maybe some snow over the highest hills as colder air slowly engages. This colder process continues later in the run as pressure builds strongly to the NW allowing a bitter cold Northerly exported from Scandinavia to engage our unsettled conditions over the UK bringing the risk of some significant Spring snowfall to many areas in 9 to 10 days time.

In Summary tonight's output does not paint a very Springlike picture overall. There is some milder weather to be had over the coming 4-5 days and I'm sure that will feel very welcome by many after so many days of cold and overcast conditions of late. However, as far as Spring goes that's it really with the trend for a spell of wet and windy weather to develop later next week when normal temperatures will be made feel cold by the unsettled conditions occurring. Thereafter it looks increasingly like all roads lead back to Winter as pressure builds once more to the North of the UK with ECM showing a decidedly nasty turn towards the end, especially not wanted to be seen by Farmers in their lambing season and Growers too as an unusually cold blast spreads down from Scandinavia with widespread snowfall likely and very sharp frosts by night should it verify. Let's hope it modifies this over the coming runs.

NOTE: There will be no report from me on this forum tomorrow morning as I am too busy to copy and paste from my Website but it will be available to anyone that is interested in reading it from there a little earlier than usual around 07:45-08:00. I will be back here again tomorrow night as usual.

[Frosty.]

Well personally I'm not bothered either way now, but such insane cold, unstable conditions would float my boat somewhat!

I agree, there is nothing I would want more than a wintry blast but there have been so many failures in recent months to convert those charts into reality, that's why i'm not going to build my hopes up unless the meto come onboard sometime soon.