Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[Panayiotis]

lol the ecm is upto its old ticks, suggesting the daddy of all cold spells as usual that never transfer from fi to reality.

i dare say we will get something colder then whats predicted within a few days. but something as outrageous as that would be a very rare event. the gfs more sober take within a similar timeframe could well be right. nothing new there then.

The coldest day in February for my area was the 22nd (Max temp 1C) with -10C uppers, so I went through the ECM archives for February and looked at 240hrs specifically, first cold that popped up for that period was on the 2nd Feb

What actually happened:

Yes a watering down of the upper temps but only by 4/5C degrees, but synoptically it got it near spot on!

The next cold that was shown at 240hrs was on the 12th:

What actually happened:

Quite different huh? Look at the upper air temps:

Synoptically it got it wrong but it knew that there was something cold brewing for that period, and the uppers were near spot on to what was forecast, even colder in the south.

For me the ECM has been the top model this winter however it has had its wobbles with the December easterly and the recent non northerly, however you can say this for most of the other models.

PS If anyone wants to comment on this, please dont quote it unless you cut it down because there is no need for a second post which will take up a lot of space on this page.

Edited March 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Frosty.]

I suggest you wait and see what the weather does, first?

Agreed RP, too much smoke being blown on here tonight.

[matty lfc]

I suggest you wait and see what the weather does, first?

Hence "going by tonight's ECM"

[Tom Montalbano]

I'm not sure if there are any horse racing fans in here but the ECM would be bad news for the Cheltenham Festival.

Not sure if it would be re-arranged if there were problems with snow.

Hi Nick,

Yes, working in the Betting Industry, the charts below would usher in a very wintry start to the Festival!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

I think the Cheltenham committee and the British Horseracing Authority would probably have some leeway in saving

the major races and running them at a later date.

Would be nice to see those charts verify though. Hope they dont see this post at work!

Regards,

Tom.

[bluearmy]

Ecm ens mean keen on the southerly tracking lows. The postage stamps whilst varied do show plenty of support for the op solution at day 7. quite a few gfs members of a similar vein to the ecm solution.

the 00z nwp will be eagerly anticipated for the first time in a while.

Edited March 2, 2013 by bluearmy

[Jason M]

ECM isn't exactly a wild outlier when compared against the GFS ensembles over recent days. I'd say synopticaly its been well supported. In terms of 850s its in the colder 25 per cent.

Not saying it will verify, but just thought I'd throw that out there..........

Following on from yesterday's thread, a few senior members might yet be tasting that humble pie I referred to!

Personally, I'm following this with interest but won't be telling anyone I know about it at present :-)

Jason

[Cloud 10]

The 12z ecm control run is right there with the operational!

Some serious cold just to our east on the 10 day ensemble mean.

[Panayiotis]

The 12z ecm control run is right there with the operational!

Some serious cold just to our east on the 10 day ensemble mean.

Hallelujah!

[bluearmy]

uppers spread at day 10 makes -10c feasible - just. Headed in the right direction for a very cold snap/spell/period (delete as appropriate)

[mushymanrob]

panayiotis.

sorry on tablet hard to use.

the point is that whilst the ecm might get the general pattern right, it ovrrcooks it, sometimes by a mile ! what it currently shows is frankly at this stage ridiculous. the chances of that becoming reality are extremely remote..... however im not saying it cant or wont happen, just that the chances as currently suggested are highly unlikely.

[nick sussex]

Given how much support there is for the ECM operational run at T96hrs in terms of those shortwaves separating west/east and the ridge edging sw from the ne then I wonder what will happen with the UKMO fax charts.

The UKMO operational run has little support from the ECM ensembles, and also little support from the other global models with how much energy it throws north.

[mushymanrob]

when the anomaly charts suggest support for tonights fi , ill start to think summuts happening. until then its fiction

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the cold came, it got pretty cold but not as cold as 'hoped' which can be said for this winter as a whole. However, there 'should' be another cold blast in the pipeline, it should be of a very cold nature but it is March so although synoptically its looking alright, the depth of cold may be watered down re 12ECM. Wouldn't it be ironic if the coldest blast came in Mid March? Have to say ECM is awesome tonight.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

panayiotis.

sorry on tablet hard to use.

the point is that whilst the ecm might get the general pattern right, it ovrrcooks it, sometimes by a mile ! what it currently shows is frankly at this stage ridiculous. the chances of that becoming reality are extremely remote..... however im not saying it cant or wont happen, just that the chances as currently suggested are highly unlikely.

I think you are right, mush: the ECM has overcooked just about everything this winter, so far...Maybe this time, it won't? That said, I don't recall much, from T+200+, verifying...

[J10]

I think you are right, mush: the ECM has overcooked just about everything this winter, so far...Maybe this time, it won't? That said, I don't recall much, from T+200+, verifying...

I think Fantasy Island has had the best wintry weather so far this winter,

or maybe Northern Japan (off topic, but worth a look).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21626040

It wouldn't surprise me if ECM has got the synoptics right, but hen tones things down considerablely by then.

[Cloud 10]

ECM 12z long range ensembles take quite a plunge mid-month.

[Dave Kightley]

Great Ecm tonight...Lets hope the warmer weather is only being saved till Summer...

[LomondSnowstorm]

when the anomaly charts suggest support for tonights fi , ill start to think summuts happening. until then its fiction

Anomaly chart for the ECM at +240:

Latest 8-14 day CPC anomaly:

Broadly speaking, they're similar. That doesn't necessarily mean deep cold is on its way, and the uppers could well be toned down significantly from the ECM 12Z operational, but synoptically it fits entirely with the broader ensemble consensus picture. You won't get a good idea of the upper cold pool until closer to the time but as BA says it's towards the lower end of the ensembles in that respect.

[bluearmy]

when the anomaly charts suggest support for tonights fi , ill start to think summuts happening. until then its fiction

Looking at the ecm ens and naefs anomolys, i have bad news for your plants rob.

[NickR]

Poor charts tonight for early spring. Certainly if you enjoy warmth and getting into the garden now that winter is over, the models after next week aren't looking good. Given that the mild weather is nailed on for this week, it's a case of hoping that not too many flowers start budding too early. Plenty of time for models to change of course, but lots of agreement on Northern blocking as it stands unfortunately.

[nick sussex]

A move to the ECM by the GFS 18hrs run in terms of what those shortwaves do to the north. UKMO fax charts awaited, will they drop that hideous raw output and modify towards the ECM operational run at 96 and 120hrs.

I should add hideous in terms of cold but good if you like wet, windy milder conditions!

Edited March 2, 2013 by nick sussex

[legritter]

havent posted lately iv just been a lurking but i do feel that tonights ECM is going i hope in the right direction and not the last 2 frames but now last 5 looking a possibility .i still feel as i said over a weak ago that we will get another shot at some good cold ,so heres hoping that tomorrow brings just a small upgrade NOT A STELLA RUN as i feel stella runs are quite often followed by big dissapointments , nice and steady and an upgrade every day .what a winter its been full of promise for some but letdowns also .as for ssw it just goes to show that these do affect northern blocking but you need to be in that prime position to get the full blast .plenty of cold arctic air waiting in the wings will mother nature throw it in our direction .also GFS throwing up some interesting possibilitys .lets hope this time next week we have a full forum with some good conversations and happy posters ,cheers

[Panayiotis]

A move to the ECM by the GFS 18hrs run in terms of what those shortwaves do to the north. UKMO fax charts awaited, will they drop that hideous raw output and modify towards the ECM operational run at 96 and 120hrs.

I should add hideous in terms of cold but good if you like wet, windy milder conditions!

Yes the GFS and ECM are very similar at 96hrs,will the UKMO change in the morning?

Edited March 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Purga]

when the anomaly charts suggest support for tonights fi , ill start to think summuts happening. until then its fiction

John Holmes would strongly agree, Steve Murr would strongly disagree. So

[SMU]

Its already happened mate. A total transformation of the models overnight and during the day.

The anomaly charts werent at the races TbH. Thats both ECM and GFS

S