South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[Tamara]

Latest from Ian F does clarify such possibilities for us in the coming few days and also highlights how the pattern is less stable than February:

The snow shower distribution will remain the trickiest element to forecast at this juncture. For example, the 00z EC DET runs convergence showers up through the Dover Straits on Tuesday, placing Kent at threat of snow, but this sort of detail cannot be wholly trusted at this range. Nonetheless it exhibits potential. Different set-up to the last easterly outbreak under very subsided conditions.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Tamara Road

[alexisj9]

This kind of sums up where we are from my perspective currently:

http://www.snow-fore...xt3to6days/snow

You'll find me on Eastbourne beach on Sunday if that happens!

lol it's a smilie face with a beard, shame it has no nose, I'll have to take a trip a few miles south to the north downs.

Edit looking again maybe croydon is in the green bit that seems to be the hair of the smilie face, I'm not that good with maps though lol.

Edited March 7, 2013 by alexisj9

[Guest bjaykent]

lol it's a smilie face with a beard, shame it has no nose, I'll have to take a trip a few miles south to the north downs.

Edit looking again maybe croydon is in the green bit that seems to be the hair of the smilie face, I'm not that good with maps though lol.

OMG I don't know how you see all these things, if you went to a psychiatrist and he put a series of pictures in front of you, I think you would always come up with a face in a snowstorm! You would definitely be treated for weather related obsession! I think there might be a queue outside the door with most of us in it as well LOL

[Jan_Bromley]

Hello fellow weather geeks

Raining and fairly mild today.

I see the rollercoaster is up and away. Fingers crossed

[Coast]

it's a smilie face with a beard, shame it has no nose

Well if it happens I'll have that smile (and a nose) - but no beard!

Hello fellow weather geeks

I prefer the term enthusiast, but yes, most people call me a weather geek!!

Edited March 7, 2013 by Coast

[Keraunic]

Will the skies be clear tonight I wonder, so we can get a glimpse of our celestial visitor. Looking out of the window right now...we've probably more chance plaiting fog.

[Pixel]

OMG I don't know how you see all these things, if you went to a psychiatrist and he put a series of pictures in front of you, I think you would always come up with a face in a snowstorm! You would definitely be treated for weather related obsession! I think there might be a queue outside the door with most of us in it as well LOL

yup I think I might join the queue...

The most wonderful thing about all this model watching etc is being able to see a pattern of something potentially happening in a week or two's time - well before most folk. Hoping the projections are correct (not exactly 'correct' but nearly) is enough to make it FUN. I see stuff that isn't there quite a lot too

Yet as we get closer to t36 down to t0 the models can change so much - It's in the detail that things get messy (esp in Mad thread) the highs and lows - toys, prams come to mind… sooo frustrating!!!

…& so then we wait patiently (cough) for the met office to confirm or deny us of what we have seen projected at only 3-4 days away. I wouldn't want to work for the MetO - way too much responsibility.

As an amateur here I'm loving the fact that the information available to us can give an insight into a week ahead, I've planned trips based on what is talked about here well in advance. But time and time again it will come down to the radar, a good view of the sky and that last minute orange warning for specifics (another cough) Snow by it's very nature is always going to be hard to predict exactly - (like a local thunderstorm) & so often comes as a surprise..

Fascinated by the weather ?? I am loving this Spring so far

[Coast]

Of course as soon as friends, workmates or family get whiff of the potential for snow, they are straight on me to see what's coming (and frankly I'm no more sure than them!). But I do seem to be using a lot more words and phrases these days that contain at least one of the following:

• It may turn out to be....
  
• If things go as the charts are showing
  
• Potentially
  
• Forecasting is still not an exact science, but
  
• Nothing set in stone
  
• Probability would suggest
  
• We are all a bit uncertain, however
  
• At this stage
  
• Without looking too far ahead
  
• The more knowledgeable people think
  
• The weather models are not in agreement, so
  

Basically I've blagged through another possible forthcoming meteorological event without having to commit to too much

[alexisj9]

Of course as soon as friends, workmates or family get whiff of the potential for snow, they are straight on me to see what's coming (and frankly I'm no more sure than them!). But I do seem to be using a lot more words and phrases these days that contain at least one of the following:

• It may turn out to be....
  
• If things go as the charts are showing
  
• Potentially
  
• Forecasting is still not an exact science, but
  
• Nothing set in stone
  
• Probability would suggest
  
• We are all a bit uncertain, however
  
• At this stage
  
• Without looking too far ahead
  
• The more knowledgeable people think
  
• The weather models are not in agreement, so
  

Basically I've blagged through another possible forthcoming meteorological event without having to commit to too much

lol I've not mentioned it at all yet, except yesterday when I was telling my eldest to makes sure she wears a coat today, she asked me why cause it's warm, and I said cause it's going to snow I mean rain lol,.

Edited March 7, 2013 by alexisj9

[Guest bjaykent]

Of course as soon as friends, workmates or family get whiff of the potential for snow, they are straight on me to see what's coming (and frankly I'm no more sure than them!). But I do seem to be using a lot more words and phrases these days that contain at least one of the following:

• It may turn out to be....
  
• If things go as the charts are showing
  
• Potentially
  
• Forecasting is still not an exact science, but
  
• Nothing set in stone
  
• Probability would suggest
  
• We are all a bit uncertain, however
  
• At this stage
  
• Without looking too far ahead
  
• The more knowledgeable people think
  
• The weather models are not in agreement, so
  

Basically I've blagged through another possible forthcoming meteorological event without having to commit to too much

Hi Coast, as soon as your back is turned I expect that all call you 'a son of a beach'!

I tend to keep my predictions private and as a result I find I constantly disappoint myself!

Edited March 7, 2013 by bjaykent

[Snowangel-MK]

I've been out for some air....shame it was of the chilly and damp variety but I was cheered up to see some signs of spring....

...I wonder if they will be buried under snow by Monday

Edited March 7, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Steve C]

On reading about the very cold March of 1845 yesterday and doing some internet research (to see how our current weather situation might compare) I thought I’d found a pretty decent diary of events from that time.

http://rawdonhistoricalsociety.com/rawdon/copping1845.htm

Between threshing barley, chopping wood and worrying about his sick / wandering wife, I thought I’d found quite an account of a severe wintry spell affecting a Victorian chap’s life.

I then thought, ‘I wonder where in the UK it was written?’ Obviously if it was an upland farmer’s account, then it’s not really too relevant…

I then noticed the word ‘Montreal’

[Jason T]

Here we go and very nice indeed. Still not nailed on but possible.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Jason T

[alexisj9]

Here we go and very nice indeed. Still not nailed on but possible.

I'm liking the red/orange colours over london and surrounding areas in the top one.

Bank

[Coast]

Hi Coast, as soon as your back is turned I expect that all call you 'a son of a beach'!

Worse, mostly......

[Coast]

An hour or so until the 12z charts come out and if I had a say in things, I'd love them to show it all a bit higher (North) than they showed this morning where it was affecting France more. I guess the front coming through Sunday will have an effect that may not be being modelled currently and those fax charts John uses a lot are very handy to see what might change locally. We also have the effects of the sea to try and factor in, so still all to play for.

[john pike]

a tad chilly

[alexisj9]

This kind of sums up where we are from my perspective currently:

http://www.snow-fore...xt3to6days/snow

You'll find me on Eastbourne beach on Sunday if that happens!

Have you changed that image or were my computer graphics playing up earlier, the whole se is green now, earlier only kent was all green.

[Coast]

Have you changed that image or were my computer graphics playing up earlier, the whole se is green now, earlier only kent was all green.

It's hot-linked so updated automatically! It's a much better view for our region now as it was sporadic earlier.

[alexisj9]

It's hot-linked so updated automatically! It's a much better view for our region now as it was sporadic earlier.

Phew I thought I really was seeing something no one else saw for a min.

[Coast]

GFS has also moved things around a bit on this run and it's not so good for the coastal strip, but others in the region are going to get a bit more if it transpires the model on this run is a valid interpretation and gives this outcome:

The Froggies still in line for more than us though:

I think the hi-res NMM and NAE will be the better pointers from tomorrow on, not saying we'll like what they show, but we are entering a better time-scale from Friday.

UKMO a better prospect at this point for many parts of our region, especially overnight Sunday into Monday and through the day:

The East coast and Kent would be in for a few cms if this came to fruition, gone largely by Wednesday though:

Edited March 7, 2013 by Coast

[john pike]

a slightly chilly wind

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=150&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

short ensembles still looking cold

from the 10th to 16th uppers temps stay below -5

some varients here from the 15th

the control run on 15th shows this

i must admit i am still unconvinced with the low track

see if ecm and the fax help later

[Steve C]

It has turned into a pretty poor day here, unless you like gloomy, with light rain type weather.

I've also paid my quarterly power bill today; let's just say that I'm happy to be avoiding the cold next week!

[Vesuvius]

Essex Weather Centre predicting snow Sunday / Monday for Essex. Sunday being rain to snow. No details yet on what parts of the county. I've found them very accurate this winter inc amounts of snow so bodes well