South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[Mark Neal.]

Looking forward to the snow potential for the next few days, i hope we get some snow showers thereafter. Though after next week i want spring to arrive and some nice high pressure!

Some pictures i took last weekend of the lovely weather are @ http://500px.com/marknealballooning

[Steve C]

Getting away from the cold talk, for just a moment.

Here's an article from the BBC site, about the comet. It includes a reasonably decent spotter map.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-21701641

The fact it's appearing from now is undoubtedly because it is a portender of doom. The cold spell next week is no coincidence.

[Simonl]

Fourm is alive!!! Typical.. My net weather extra runs out in 2 days... ARG!!!!

Subscribe again! I am gonna mate lol

[alexisj9]

Foggy with moderate rain during the school run this morning, now still raining but fog clearing.

[Coast]

06z run of GFS just goes with the flow!!!!

Still looks like a Channel coast thing on this one:

No cigar yet, but I love it when a plan comes together....

[alexisj9]

The met o has croydon down as a max of -1 on monday lol, if that verifies will be the coldest midday temp all winter.

[kate1]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but there is a yellow weather alert out which covers our region (in fact it covers the whole of England) - an 80% chance of cold and heavy (!) snow over the weekend, with rain moving south turning to snow, even at lower levels, by Saturday evening. And heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. Mention of these conditions continuing through to Tuesday and perhaps longer. Sorry, don't know how to post the link to the MetO website - but this general UK warning is not yet reflected in the more detailed regional forecasts... which I guess is an indication of the uncertainty there still is about when/where/if snow is to fall.

Whatever happens it has to be better than this truly awful weather we are having today...

Edited March 8, 2013 by kate1

[alexisj9]

Hey coast when it gets to you remember to push it north 30 or so miles please.

[bobbydog]

well.... the 06z GFS has southern counties under constant snowfall from sunday evening until tuesday lunchtime!

now, just for fun, (as the precip charts should only ever be used as a very rough guide) it shows 4mm per hour for many, right through this period. that equates to roughly 4cm of snow per hour.

39 hours x 4cm = 156cm of snow!!!!!! lol

[Average Joe]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but there is a yellow weather alert out which covers our region (in fact it covers the whole of England) - an 80% chance of cold and heavy (!) snow over the weekend, with rain moving south turning to snow, even at lower levels, by Saturday evening. And heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. Mention of these conditions continuing through to Tuesday and perhaps longer. Sorry, don't know how to post the link to the MetO website - but this general UK warning is not yet reflected in the more detailed regional forecasts... which I guess is an indication of the uncertainty there still is about when/where/if snow is to fall.

Whatever happens it has to be better than this truly awful weather we are having today...

Kate, this is a cold weather alert and not one of their "Be prepared" yellow warnings as such.

[Coast]

Hey coast when it gets to you remember to push it north 30 or so miles please.

I will, there could be enough to go around and I'm a sharing kinda guy!!

[bobbydog]

Kate, this is a cold weather alert and not one of their "Be prepared" yellow warnings as such.

that is true but a yellow warning could be coming. this is the text from that cold weather alert-

"Turning colder over the weekend as cold air spreads south across the country during Saturday. Also during Saturday, a band a rain will move south across England and rain is expected to turn increasingly to sleet or snow down to low levels by the evening. Further snow showers are expected to follow into some eastern parts with a risk of a period of heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. The cold weather will also be exacerbated across all areas for a time by brisk easterly winds bringing a marked wind chill. This spell of cold weather is expected to last across most areas until at least Tuesday and perhaps longer."

[Guest bjaykent]

Just looking at the GFS0.5 rolling out for 6z, if you look at the ppn accumulation chart and assume that the cold will have undercut by 1.00am Monday to turn any ppn to snow and then scroll down to 120 hrs you can see how much extra ppn has fallen over the area bearing in mind throughout this same period the 2m temps don't get above freezing. The potential is there for some significant falls of snow. clearly caveats about accuracy apply.

http://www.meteociel...itations/3h.htm

http://www.meteociel...es-2m-hd/3h.htm

well.... the 06z GFS has southern counties under constant snowfall from sunday evening until tuesday lunchtime!

now, just for fun, (as the precip charts should only ever be used as a very rough guide) it shows 4mm per hour for many, right through this period. that equates to roughly 4cm of snow per hour.

39 hours x 4cm = 156cm of snow!!!!!! lol

Snap' have just done the same thing! Edited March 8, 2013 by bjaykent

[Pixel]

link to met office alert:

http://www.metoffice...-weather-alert/

covers a mutitude of possibilities (-;

edit just seen bobbydogs post

Edited March 8, 2013 by Pixel

[lawrenk]

I'm hoping the Netweather Forecast is accurate as according to this I may see heavy/torrential snow between 9pm Monday and 3am Tuesday. I'll take that.

[alexisj9]

Just looking at the GFS0.5 rolling out for 6z, if you look at the ppn accumulation chart and assume that the cold will have undercut by 1.00am Monday to turn any ppn to snow and then scroll down to 120 hrs you can see how much extra ppn has fallen over the area bearing in mind throughout this same period the 2m temps don't get above freezing. The potential is there for some significant falls of snow. clearly caveats about accuracy apply.

http://www.meteociel...itations/3h.htm

http://www.meteociel...es-2m-hd/3h.htm

Snap' have just done the same thing!

The ppn on the southcoast now being shown is it what was over france before?

[Sussex Jules]

Sussex snowfest anyone?! It's ok though we are a friendly bunch down here we'll share it around. Nice to see you sorted out that snow magnet on Beachy Head Coast thanks for that

[Pixel]

It's Friday morning... after having a good trawl around I still see no clear indication of where any precipitation will fall tomorrow! - Sunday or Monday.. each model has it in a different place.

Amazing that Saturday is still 'up in the air' with regards to a forecast. It's getting sooo close to proper surprises - love it !

The only certainty is it's going to be cold (-:

[Guest bjaykent]

The ppn on the southcoast now being shown is it what was over france before?

Still got to verify but these are undoubtedly the best charts of the winter and we're in spring!, also as I mentioned early looks like more snow potential later into next week on this run.

[Jan_Bromley]

Good morning all,

Looks like a remarkable spell of weather is coming. If nothing else it's going to be v cold.

Precipitation totals look too good to be true. Time will tell.

Rain and gloom here today

[alexisj9]

It's Friday morning... after having a good trawl around I still see no clear indication of where any precipitation will fall tomorrow! - Sunday or Monday.. each model has it in a different place.

Amazing that Saturday is still 'up in the air' with regards to a forecast. It's getting sooo close to proper surprises - love it !

The only certainty is it's going to be cold (-:

I don't mind as long as it's not cold and wet, unfortunately untill the proper cold gets here, cold and wet is what we will have. I'm hoping the proper cold gets here quicker then forcast and we get some snow from sometime tomorrow.

[Guest bjaykent]

It's Friday morning... after having a good trawl around I still see no clear indication of where any precipitation will fall tomorrow! - Sunday or Monday.. each model has it in a different place.

Amazing that Saturday is still 'up in the air' with regards to a forecast. It's getting sooo close to proper surprises - love it !

The only certainty is it's going to be cold (-:

Agree GFS predictions are mind boggling at the moment but the ppn amounts not really showing on any other model as yet. Good old radar and now casts coming up, don't really trust any ppn charts, certainly not this far out but it's a bit of fun.

[snowrye]

Am I in the firing line or not

[Guest bjaykent]

Pretty astonishing GFS6z, -8 uppers rarely leave our shores throughout the run! Shame its a weather model and not the real thing!http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

Edited March 8, 2013 by bjaykent

[kate1]

Agree GFS predictions are mind boggling at the moment but the ppn amounts not really showing on any other model as yet. Good old radar and now casts coming up, don't really trust any ppn charts, certainly not this far out but it's a bit of fun.

Given how good the GFS has been at predicting this cold spell perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt - though I wouldn't have said that at any other time this winter!