South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[Sussex Jules]

Stop it! even I'm getting excited now, if this one fails to deliver this forum will have all the appeal of a Tesco's ready meal by this time next week!

Neigh chance!

[tight isobar]

....the coastal lp modelled is by no means nailed in northern extent form as of yet, i think convection is being somewhat underlooked, isobar gradient,uppper 850hpa and to an extent the unstability of air mass are for me begining to look primed for some shower form to increasingly become orgainised banding,and migrateing WELL inland with time perhaps cross region, with more favourable accums,modelled at present. That where my attention id begining to focus...regards...

[Coast]

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

[Eskimo]

Is there any chance of a 100 miles shift northward into Hertfordshire? Please just say yes so it puts me out of my misery lol

[abruzzi spur]

Here's the MO warning for Sunday:

"A spell of sleet and snow is expected, starting on Sunday evening in SW England, and affecting southern England more widely on Sunday night and Monday morning. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel. Accumulations of 3 - 5 cm could occur quite widely over southern counties, and the public are advised to be aware of this wintry hazard. "

and here is the Chief Forecaster's assessment:

"A low pressure system moving up from the Atlantic will come up against the influx of cold air from the north, bringing persistent sleet and snow. At the same time winds will increase, with gusts to 50 MPH on coasts and hills. At this stage there is uncertainty about how far north precipitation will push, and also the extent to which snow will settle on the recently warmed ground, and this warning is likely to be updated. "

and here is the warning map:

Looks like my back garden is at risk of snow, but not the front garden. Interesting times ahead I think!

(The bit about my back garden does not form part of the official Met Office warning)

AS

Edited March 8, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[john pike]

heres a brief on what ukmo show 60 and 72

showers north of london falling as light snow from mid morning

risk spreads south as well mid afternoon

snow risk all of the region

precip areas tba

this is very close to a big event

more later

[Tamara]

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

I'm especially liking the little deeper coloured bit over my street for Tuesday am March igloos

[Coast]

Interesting to see what the 12z GFS brings for our region when it come out this afternoon. We'll also have some more of the hi-res stuff available later - I feel some ramplification

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hoping it comes a little further north.

[Nikkib74]

I'm so glad it's dull and rainy today, puts me in the mood for snow. Had it been warm and sunny I might not be so excited..... I am VERY excited

[Steve C]

I have been wondering about previous occasions like this which have produced classics. There was one sometime in the late 1890's (just before my time) which produced a spectacular blizzard from a stalled low just off the channel which lasted a couple of days and gave massive snow drifts. It seems that the principle at work was just the same as the upcoming synoptic pattern with very cold arctic air meeting a much moister and warmer airmass just the other side of the channel. But the dividing line is just so close here, it could be an all or nothing situation and we won't know for a while yet. This is only a day or two away as well!

The March blizzard of 1891 was a candidate for the worst in recorded history in parts of the south of England - particularly the southwest.

[Guest bjaykent]

I have been wondering about previous occasions like this which have produced classics. There was one sometime in the late 1890's (just before my time) which produced a spectacular blizzard from a stalled low just off the channel which lasted a couple of days and gave massive snow drifts. It seems that the principle at work was just the same as the upcoming synoptic pattern with very cold arctic air meeting a much moister and warmer airmass just the other side of the channel. But the dividing line is just so close here, it could be an all or nothing situation and we won't know for a while yet. This is only a day or two away as well!

LOL at your age you should remember the 1933 event!

[Coast]

Re convection. We are starting to see the GFS convection charts chucking a few good indicators into the mix now,

Convergence along the Channel and just over in France (little red lines)

Amazing wet bulb temps at 0-1km with a flow coming straight in our back door:

Storm helicity swirling it all about like a food processor!

Here's why it currently shows up along the South coast mostly, it's where all the precipitable water is:

Again the moisture transport vectors (which direction the precip is heading) gives a good indicator of where it might dump on us:

Edited March 8, 2013 by Coast

[Tamara]

I'm so glad it's dull and rainy today, puts me in the mood for snow. Had it been warm and sunny I might not be so excited..... I am VERY excited

I loved the sunshine and lovely blue skies early this week, but I sure will never resist snow, especially something like this late in the season as it is. These weather varieties in the space of a week can make Spring a very rewarding and enjoyable time

LOL at your age you should remember the 1933 event!

[Steve C]

I loved the sunshine and lovely blue skies early this week, but I sure will never resist snow, especially something like this late in the season as it is. These weather varieties in the space of a week can make Spring a very rewarding and enjoyable time

I'll wish you a happy birthday on April Fools' Day then.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The ECM 00Z op run upto T144 (London) shows Monday as the only very cold day (1c). Sunday has a max of 4c, i expect the very cold air isn't expected to reach this far South until Sunday evening. Tuesday sees it turning less cold (3c), Wed's continues the less cold theme 6c and Thurs see's rain forecast with a max of 5c. Rain could possibly turn to snow Sunday afternoon / evening. Mon is dry but cloudy. Tues is also dry but sunny, and Weds see's a chance of sleet / snow showers.

The ECM ensemble mean also agrees with temps becoming less cold from Tuesday.

GFS 06z upto T144 (London)

This also shows the very cold air not reaching this far South until Sunday evening at the earliest. Max for Sun 5c, Mon is very cold 1c, there is the possibility on the GFS that London keeps hold of the very cold air until Tues, max 1c. But then by Wed's it becomes less cold, max 4c, Thurs less colder still, max 6c.

Sunday also see's a chance of rain turning to snow on the GFS. Mon also sees a chance of snow for London from a front coming up from the South coast.. Tuesday looks fairly dry. Wed's could see some scattered light sleet / snow showers. And Thursday see's more general rain arrive.

Overall quite a similar theme from both ECM and GFS. GFS probably with better snow chances. but both agree turning less cold from Tuesday onwards, with the possibility of more general rain on Thurs.

[john pike]

the incoming low is a funny one

if further north could see some huge snow totals

if goes further south could potentially extend the cold spell

fascinating watching this

mondays fax updated last night

mondays fax updated this morning

see how far north the low has been pushed

tonights and this afternoons runs should be fun

[Tamara]

I'll wish you a happy birthday on April Fools' Day then.

I'm getting rumbled - slowly but surely

[Guest bjaykent]

I'm getting rumbled - slowly but surely

sorry!

[Suburban Streamer]

Is there any chance of a 100 miles shift northward into Hertfordshire? Please just say yes so it puts me out of my misery lol

funnily enough i'm hoping for the same! monday looks better for us but maybe we will be pleasantly surprised on sunday eve - fingers crossed!

[Tamara]

sorry!

You are forgiven...but not forgotten

I think as John just suggested, in an ideal world we want to see a balance between getting the low far enough north to maximise snow potential for the region as a whole, but still far enough south so that we can squeeze as much out of the cold afterwards as possible so that any snow cover has a chance of staying just that bit longer. We all realistically know that at this time of year it won't take much for the snow to disappear. But hey, it's fun hoping and also being a bit greedy in the process

Edited March 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Eskimo]

It might sound very biased because of my location but in all seriousness, I'm expecting a consistent 'northerly nudge' of this low pressure system. It's been modeled slowly edging Northward by about 30-50 miles every day meaning that by tomorrow, North London southward could see this significant snowfall, and by Sunday, maybe more of Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Suffolk?

Edited March 8, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Coast]

Could be an interesting scenario with all the families taking Mothers out for a meal on Sunday. I can see a few cards like this are in order:

[Heisenberg]

Yellow warning for everyone....aside from me that is

[Suburban Streamer]

Yellow warning for everyone....aside from me that is

erm...not really everyone

this is a huge regional thread!