South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[bobbydog]

morning coast, according to RJS in the model thread, we are going to see some epic weather on sunday night (if he's right). either that or he's lost the plot!!

[Coast]

morning coast, according to RJS in the model thread, we are going to see some epic weather on sunday night (if he's right). either that or he's lost the plot!!

Morning BD

Well I'm not that confident yet, but I'm leaning towards the idea that almost everyone in the region will see some snow, maybe more than just a few cms in places (possibly my back garden...). NAE just coming into the time-frame now and as we are looking at a system coming down from the country towards us, this looks good on the current run:

Cross checking that with the in-house NMM it's about the same at that point:

Met office also broadly the same to start off:

But for later it seems to have it more to the West at the moment:

Only one thing to do now

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning regional people...happy Friday to you all

It's a bit foggy here....

[bobbydog]

Morning BD

Well I'm not that confident yet, but I'm leaning towards the idea that almost everyone in the region will see some snow, maybe more than just a few cms in places (possibly my back garden...). NAE just coming into the time-frame now and as we are looking at a system coming down from the country towards us, this looks good on the current run:

Cross checking that with the in-house NMM it's about the same at that point:

Met office also broadly the same to start off:

But for later it seems to have it more to the West at the moment:

Only one thing to do now

definitely looking promising, the models have been consistent in the lead-up and it looks like it might actually happen this time!

the updated fax looks good-

we could be right in the firing line there, will be keeping a close eye on the Meto updates.....

[Coast]

Morning regional people...happy Friday to you all

It's a bit foggy here....

Morning MKSA!

It was very foggy on my way home last night but has cleared a bit this morning.

Just looking at the convective elements that might come into play over the weekend, there are some stirrings now on the latest run:

Surface CAPE out along the North Sea:

Higher level lapse rates way up in the South:

Wet bulb, streamlines and convergence:

A nice bit of shear:

Helicity out off EA:

Area of precipitable water confined to the very South at that time:

But the moisture transport vectors look very good for bring precip in.

It's stacking up to be quite exciting so far, we know it's going to be very cold, we just need more runs and more cross model agreement.

Do you all know where you put the sledge when you tucked it away for the Winter????

Edited March 8, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

When John says this in the MOD thread:

Well all 3 now have -10C 850 values over the whole country by the end of the weekend. Just what will fall from the sky as this process occurs will not be clear until tomorrow but more and more parts at relatively low levels look to be under threat. It does look like, however long it lasts, that it will be a notable March feature

.

On the longer term then NOAA has a westerly in by the 8-14 day outlook but not on its 6-10 one from last evening. It also lowers heights over the UK by 6 or so DM. The ECMWF-GFS issue this morning has changed from the issue yesterday in that the upper trough is now dominant rather than the ridge. This is now further west centred in the Greenland area but with quite cold air over the UK, sub 528DM for quite a lot, a westerly flow indicated in the far south but almost no direction or speed shown further north.

spring would seem to be on hold with all 3 charts, initially 6-10 days but possibly 15 or so days is probable before any milder air COULD develop.

It's worth taking notice!

[Stevieray1]

Morning all

I've tried not to tell the family about this upcoming weather as I didn't want to jinx it, but it's getting really hard to keep this in now!!! Exciting stuff on the horizon...... hopefully.

It's a bit miserable out there this morning. I thought it was frost at first then realised its just drizzly foggy murk.

Happy Friday SE-ers and fingers crossed for a memorable few days ahead

[Sussex Jules]

Morning all. Well well well looking interesting start to the working week. Now where did I put that snow shovel .......

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Fourm is alive!!! Typical.. My net weather extra runs out in 2 days... ARG!!!!

[abruzzi spur]

Morning all

Heard Tomasz Shuffleknockers on the 6:58 Radio 4 forecast "all change next week. Beast from the East is coming". He sounded quite excited (mind you he always does!)

AS

[Guest bjaykent]

morning all, very foggy 6.30am, probably the thickest I have seen this winter, down to about 50-100 yards, still foggy now but not as bad. Just off to look at the models, can see some excitement from Coast even at this early hour of the morning. just took this picture in the back garden sums up the morning so far.

[Coast]

can see some excitement from Coast even at this early hour of the morning.

I haven't taken my medication before looking at the models! :lol:

[abruzzi spur]

From Ian F in the model thread just now:

"Based on latest NAE and amalgamation with 00z GM, we see dynamic snow accumulations of 5-10cm through Midlands later Sunday. Exeter have re-modelled this, factoring-in diurnal influence and depth temperature. Settling will be intensity-dependent and current prognosis is catering for 5-10cm above 300m; 1-3cm lower levels. It's outside warning criteria (impact-based) for now. However, accumulations in far S / SW overnight into early Monday look a tad more concerning and are being closely watched in output. "

interesting - shows the fluidity of the situation!

[HammerJack]

Morning all. Very foggy start to the day here. Looking forward to some fun & games come Sunday (fingers, arms and legs crossed)

Have a great POETS day...

[WillinGlossop]

South East England 80% Turning colder over the weekend with the temperature threshold likely to be reached by Monday. During Saturday night rain may turn to sleet or snow in places for a while before dying out. Risk of further snowfall in places on Sunday night or Monday. Snow showers also likely on Tuesday, especially over Kent.

Cold weather alert issued

[snow raven]

Very misty in good ol' London town this morning. I work opposite the Houses of Parliament and it's not often I can only see the bottom third of Big Ben from just across the Thames.

It's not a day you would want to have purchased pre-booked tickets to the top of the Shard!

[Floatylight]

yes foggy here too,my youngest said mummy are my glasses dirty or has the sky fallen down?looking forward to some proper action come the end of the weekend, fingers crossed:)

[alexisj9]

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Interesting ensembles. ;-)

What's all that green about lol.

[Steve C]

Morning all. Quite a foggy, gloomy start to the day here. Now just awaiting the start of the rain...

Quite an impressive local forecast for Monday on the BBC, for cold lovers. A maximum of 0C with a wind in excess of 20mph and no other factors, such as fog (obviously, given the windspeed) or snow cover to drive down the temperature. That's going to feel absolutely bitter!

I don't think I can ever recall a forecast like that, so late in the year.

[Lampostwatcher]

Helen Willets

" chance of a few snow showers on Sunday "

[Mark Neal.]

Do you all know where you put the sledge when you tucked it away for the Winter????

No, but that is probably because i never had one

[Steve C]

When John says this in the MOD thread:

It's worth taking notice!

Yep, one of the posters I look for, from a weather forecast perspective.

[Sussex Jules]

What's all that green about lol.

Coast has been playing with his crayons again!

[Pixel]

From Ian F in the model thread just now:

"Based on latest NAE and amalgamation with 00z GM, we see dynamic snow accumulations of 5-10cm through Midlands later Sunday. Exeter have re-modelled this, factoring-in diurnal influence and depth temperature. Settling will be intensity-dependent and current prognosis is catering for 5-10cm above 300m; 1-3cm lower levels. It's outside warning criteria (impact-based) for now. However, accumulations in far S / SW overnight into early Monday look a tad more concerning and are being closely watched in output. "

interesting - shows the fluidity of the situation!

I had to look up dynamic..

dy·nam·ic (d-nmk)

adj. also dy·nam·i·cal (--kl)

1.

a.

Of or relating to energy or to objects in motion.

b.

Of or relating to the study of dynamics.

2.

Characterized by continuous change, activity, or progress:

a dynamic market.

3.

Marked by intensity and vigor; forceful. See Synonyms at

active

.

4.

Of or relating to variation of intensity, as in musical sound.

have to say I'm looking forward to the music from the sky this weekend

[Guest bjaykent]

I like the Ian F post, certainly gives more credence to the GFS0z run and also the bullish John Holmes post suggests perhaps a cold spell rather than a snap, there are plenty of examples of GFS ensembles suggesting a return of cold and possible snow later next week, clearly still a long way off as even later this weekend could change yet. GFS6Z just starting to run out, let's see if it still has the same snow potential for us on Monday/Tuesday.