South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[Pixel]

Agree GFS predictions are mind boggling at the moment but the ppn amounts not really showing on any other model as yet. Good old radar and now casts coming up, don't really trust any ppn charts, certainly not this far out but it's a bit of fun.

I don't mind as long as it's not cold and wet, unfortunately untill the proper cold gets here, cold and wet is what we will have. I'm hoping the proper cold gets here quicker then forcast and we get some snow from sometime tomorrow.

maybe this afternoon when the models update it will become clearer (cough)

the graphics on Aunty seem to have changed 3 times so far this morning http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

..time to turn the computer off, go and buy some salt/grit and then get on with some work - I bugger just realised I need the computer for work! - how will I resist checking in here... argghhh

[Guest bjaykent]

Given how good the GFS has been at predicting this cold spell perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt - though I wouldn't have said that at any other time this winter!

Don't sing its praises yet, even at this late stage it's still only a prediction, cold hasn't arrived yet, never mind the snow. But agree it would be nice to see the GFS get something right first for a change!

LOL sitting at my computer and have just realised what a truly awful day it is outside today, wet and murky!

Edited March 8, 2013 by bjaykent

[bobbydog]

Am I in the firing line or not

well here's a snapshot from monday-

potentially we all are....

[Guest bjaykent]

well here's a snapshot from monday-

potentially we all are....

Looks like mr blobby has been dropped from a great height!

[Tamara]

Am I in the firing line or not

Yes quite possibly Along with many of us - quite exciting times for towards the middle of March perhaps

Edited March 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Jason T]

WOW, Nice upgrade. Looking very interesting now.

T60. . .

T66

T72

T90- - - - 4"

Edited March 8, 2013 by Jason T

[snowrye]

Then bring it on

[Keraunic]

Getting away from the cold talk, for just a moment.

Here's an article from the BBC site, about the comet. It includes a reasonably decent spotter map.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-21701641

The fact it's appearing from now is undoubtedly because it is a portender of doom. The cold spell next week is no coincidence.

Well, look at the disasters when Hale-Bopp appeared. Diana was bumped off, Mother Teresa died and Labour got in. :o And Haleys Comet in 1066. :o I suppose gay marriage will be blamed for whatever occurs with this one.

Anyway.....Mornin each. Chilly and damp in Ippy and overcast. I still can't believe it's going to change so drastically.

Have a HAPPY POETS DAY, EVERYONE. My lot are off to see Cannibal Corpse in Nottingham today so nice quiet day for me.

[Steve C]

Well, look at the disasters when Hale-Bopp appeared. Diana was bumped off, Mother Teresa died and Labour got in. And Haleys Comet in 1066. I suppose gay marriage will be blamed for whatever occurs with this one.

Anyway.....Mornin each. Chilly and damp in Ippy and overcast. I still can't believe it's going to change so drastically.

Have a HAPPY POETS DAY, EVERYONE. My lot are off to see Cannibal Corpse in Nottingham today so nice quiet day for me.

Crikey, they're still going then? Maybe death metal bands never truly die, but merely become undead.

[Guest bjaykent]

Well, look at the disasters when Hale-Bopp appeared. Diana was bumped off, Mother Teresa died and Labour got in. And Haleys Comet in 1066. I suppose gay marriage will be blamed for whatever occurs with this one.

Anyway.....Mornin each. Chilly and damp in Ippy and overcast. I still can't believe it's going to change so drastically.

Have a HAPPY POETS DAY, EVERYONE. My lot are off to see Cannibal Corpse in Nottingham today so nice quiet day for me.

It's a pretty safe bet that on any given day a comet arrives there will be political disaster in the UK regardless of which party inflict it upon us LOL!

[Eskimo]

Well, look at the disasters when Hale-Bopp appeared. Diana was bumped off, Mother Teresa died and Labour got in. And Haleys Comet in 1066. I suppose gay marriage will be blamed for whatever occurs with this one.

Anyway.....Mornin each. Chilly and damp in Ippy and overcast. I still can't believe it's going to change so drastically.

Have a HAPPY POETS DAY, EVERYONE. My lot are off to see Cannibal Corpse in Nottingham today so nice quiet day for me.

Lol cannibal corpse, if anyone doesn't know them, listen to a portion of a song of theirs below.

[Tamara]

A situation like this with very cold and dry upper air undercutting a slow moving area of ppn just to the south of it is asking for a LOT of snow. As things stand, there looks to be a zone, somewhere, that will set up and produce potentially very large amounts of snow as more and more of that colder air undercuts the moisture from the fronts stalled out to the south (wherever in micro terms that does set up) Channel? South Coast? etc etc. The ppn is likely to keep energy for a while because there is quite a sharp boundary line between the air masses and they are slow moving for quite a time. The much milder air from the south has almost what in summer would be considered a 'plume' element to it. And this is a sharp contrast for sure to the arctic continental air mass originating from NE Europe and NW Russia

If that sounds like a rampette - so be it! But it is easy to see why the METO are keep a close eye especially on Sunday night into Monday and thereafter. Time will tell

Edited March 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[chionomaniac]

A situation like this with very cold and dry upper air undercutting a slow moving area of ppn just to the south of it is asking for a LOT of snow. As things stand, there looks to be a zone, somewhere, that will set up and produce potentially very large amounts of snow as more and more of that colder air undercuts the moisture from the fronts stalled out to the south (wherever in micro terms that does set up) Channel? South Coast? etc etc. The ppn is likely to keep energy for a while because there is quite a sharp boundary line between the air masses and they are slow moving for quite a time. The much milder air from the south has almost what in summer would be considered a 'plume' element to it. And this is a sharp contrast for sure to the arctic continental air mass originating from NE Europe and NW Russia

If that sounds like a rampette - so be it! But it is easy to see why the METO are keep a close eye especially on Sunday night into Monday and thereafter. Time will tell

Yes Tamara.

I think there is potential big time for a notable snow event for March - one for the history books if the GFS is correct. The position and orintation of the Channel low on the 6Z run is probably the perfect Channel low for snow deliverance at any time whether spring or winter. It is not matched by the ECM in terms of deliverance at this point sadly.

I am trying to hold the excitement in, presently!

Edited March 8, 2013 by chionomaniac

[alexisj9]

Lol cannibal corpse, if anyone doesn't know them, listen to a portion of a song of theirs below.

lol a portion is all I could get through.

[snow raven]

I wasn't going to build my hopes up on the coming snow potential but.... Permission to get excited!

[Tamara]

Yes Tamara.

I think there is potential big time for a notable snow event for March - one for the history books if the GFS is correct. The position and orintation of the Channel low on the 6Z run is probably the perfect Channel low for snow deliverance at any time whether spring or winter. It is not matched by the ECM in terms of deliverance at this point sadly.

I am trying to hold the excitement in, presently!

Yes I had noticed the ECM current predictions. We wait a bit longer before getting too excited. More suspense!

[john pike]

IF these are right

the evening of the 10th

11th and 12th would see huge amounts of snow

main gfs run and quite a few ensembles do not really get near warm right through

fax tonight will be fun

[Guest bjaykent]

Yes I had noticed the ECM current predictions. We wait a bit longer before getting too excited. More suspense!

Hi Tamara, histoically is there a similar set up to this, I was just looking at Feb 1933 but on this occasion the Low pressure pushed further north but still quite similar.

http://www.ukweather...t-of-the-1930s/

Edited March 8, 2013 by bjaykent

[Coast]

Permission to get excited!

Edited March 8, 2013 by Coast

[bobbydog]

that is true but a yellow warning could be coming. this is the text from that cold weather alert-

"Turning colder over the weekend as cold air spreads south across the country during Saturday. Also during Saturday, a band a rain will move south across England and rain is expected to turn increasingly to sleet or snow down to low levels by the evening. Further snow showers are expected to follow into some eastern parts with a risk of a period of heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. The cold weather will also be exacerbated across all areas for a time by brisk easterly winds bringing a marked wind chill. This spell of cold weather is expected to last across most areas until at least Tuesday and perhaps longer."

and here it is!!- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

[Rob Deacon]

Something quite odd just happened where I live, (Telscombe cliffs on the coast about 6 miles east of Brighton)

I was just outside now having a smoke when I could hear a strange sound in the sky getting closer, as it got closer I realised it was a flock of massive birds (geese I think)

They were high up and making loads of noise, they were heading south and just carried on out to sea.

Is it normal to see that on south coast this time of year? I've never seen anything like it, what they flying away from? lol

[kate1]

I am now doing a little dance!

It does seem quite early for an actual warning to be issued - hopefully they are now pretty sure this is really on its way? They also seem to have added snow for my location on Tuesday on their 5-day regional forecast, whereas previously it was only showing on Monday... upgrades all round!

The MetO's little warning matrix thingie is showing 3/4 in terms of likelihood but only 2/4 in terms of impact - definitely all moving in the right direction...

Edited March 8, 2013 by kate1

[Guest bjaykent]

I wasn't going to build my hopes up on the coming snow potential but.... Permission to get excited!

Stop it! even I'm getting excited now, if this one fails to deliver this forum will have all the appeal of a Tesco's ready meal by this time next week!

[alexisj9]

Something quite odd just happened where I live, (Telscombe cliffs on the coast about 6 miles east of Brighton)

I was just outside now having a smoke when I could hear a strange sound in the sky getting closer, as it got closer I realised it was a flock of massive birds (geese I think)

They were high up and making loads of noise, they were heading south and just carried on out to sea.

Is it normal to see that on south coast this time of year? I've never seen anything like it, what they flying away from? lol

I guess the cold is going to be in the very cold veriety and they know. I don't think they normally head south now, I'm not 100% sure but I think they normally go west.

[Tamara]

Hi tamara, histoically is there a similar set up to this, I was just looking at Feb 1933 but on this occasion the Low pressure pushed further north but still quite similar.

http://www.ukweather...t-of-the-1930s/

I have been wondering about previous occasions like this which have produced classics. There was one sometime in the late 1890's (just before my time) which produced a spectacular blizzard from a stalled low just off the channel which lasted a couple of days and gave massive snow drifts. It seems that the principle at work was just the same as the upcoming synoptic pattern with very cold arctic air meeting a much moister and warmer airmass just the other side of the channel. But the dividing line is just so close here, it could be an all or nothing situation and we won't know for a while yet. This is only a day or two away as well!