South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[john pike]

Until 30 mins before the event starts am I going to get my hopes up or not. To many times this winter we have been let down by pesky warm sectors showing 6hrs or so before and so close but no party and fireworks yes lots to give many a good old pasting but let's wait and see ;-)

John.. Marid? Monday in French? It's the 8th today how can Monday be the 12th?

sorry mate you lost me

[randomwalk]

the gfs 0.5 shows about 30mm of precipitation falling sunday/tuesday at grid point near to brighton on the south coast. South Downs anyone?

[Eskimo]

Lundi, mardi, mecredi, Jeudi, vendredi, samdi, dimache

Edited March 8, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[john pike]

Until 30 mins before the event starts am I going to get my hopes up or not. To many times this winter we have been let down by pesky warm sectors showing 6hrs or so before and so close but no party and fireworks yes lots to give many a good old pasting but let's wait and see ;-)

John.. Marid? Monday in French? It's the 8th today how can Monday be the 12th?

hi mate

the chart showing was for 2 am tuesday

so showing where the mondays low would cross

[WillinGlossop]

the gfs 0.5 shows about 30mm of precipitation falling sunday/tuesday at grid point near to brighton on the south coast. South Downs anyone?

30 mm to south of kent too and 25mm to the north of kent..... Whatever does fall sunday night through tuesday will be snow though....

Latest metcheck straight copy of latest gfs goes for 21cm snow sunday night through tuesday morning....

Edited March 8, 2013 by willinkent44

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=318&y=151&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

cold

mean between -5 to -10 for the whole short run to the 16th

[Floatylight]

ah, thats fair enough, non event would have been à better phrase. :-).

No it's marginal for 'me' I said,meaning it's marginal as to if I get snow here or not?nothing wrong with the phrasing

[Steve C]

control run for 84

about as north as we want it

or we may

no not going to say that

One word that I think of when seeing that chart begins with B... (or potentially)

Edited March 8, 2013 by Steve C

[WillinGlossop]

Also already had 20mm rain today...... Soggy.... Its only 5.6c too.... Only colder from here on in!

[alexisj9]

One word that I think of when seeing that chart begins with B...

Can people stop wishing it north please, there will be plenty of snow even where the front is not. Your all forgeting instability of the warm air and cold air will produce heavy showers. Look to the thames this time she will play ball.

[Floatylight]

Gfs still looks good to me .blimey didn't it rain today,had fun in the puddles with my new 4x4 in the country today.poor mum didn't think so though tee hee.

[Steve C]

Can people stop wishing it north please, there will be plenty of snow even where the front is not. Your all forgeting instability of the warm air and cold air will produce heavy showers. Look to the thames this time she will play ball.

Not what I meant (I don't think )

[Suburban Streamer]

just looking at the gefs 12z ensemble panels at t72, and its pretty much an even split in terms of the low pressure. out of 23 runs i make it 12 keeping the lp as per ukmo 12z (or further south) and 11 runs which have it more like the 12z gfs (or further north).

looking at the runs which send the lp further south, these ones certainly seem to increase the flow of snow showers over our region on monday/tues (pert 9 for example)

http://www.meteociel...0&mode=1&ech=72

Edited March 8, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[alexisj9]

Not what I meant (I don't think )

Sorry steve I thought I was quoting JP's post, if it goes any more north then that the south coast will have rain.

[Dan the Man]

Good evening everyone, hope all is well.

Been away from posting from a couple of weeks - just caught up with the thread. All I'm going to say is WOWZA.

[john pike]

would not look out of place in january

11th to the 13th

huge precipitation showing

right or wrong????

16th-17th fi

15 degree spread

overall brrrrrrrrrrrrr

[fluid dynamic]

aaaaahh spring has sprung

got to drive to wales and back on monday

[john pike]

ecm 48

sunday luchtime

cold air in anglia moving south

overnight sunday and now monday

cold air over the whole south east

anything falling would be snow

still very cold

low still close to the south

still looks like a snow day to me

now look north east

[HammerJack]

Evening everyone. Mild but very murky, cloudy, grey, overcast, foggy (then misty), turn misty again, heavier rain now. I think that sums up today :-D. On that note Steve C do you have any room in your suitcase for me....... I need some sun and warmth now hahaha

Edited March 8, 2013 by LeighD

[john pike]

120

low goes south east

cold air floods down from the north east

still cold

[john pike]

very cold air over the south east

uppers still cold enough for snow

cannot tell precip but conditions still ok for some snow

[SMU]

Evening All-

trying to reserve my 10k post for Sunday!

ECM & GFS are now homing in on the time period T54- T102 -~ 48 hours for convective potential for the SE- in which time the uppers are at -10c or below.

There is threat of heavy snow from all directions, although the ECM is LESS bullish about snow along the south - where as GFS & UKMo bring it further North.

the CORE of the potential heavy snow showers & potential is from monday 6am all the way through the day with an onshore flow up the estuary ~ 5c at the sea surface & -12c uppers gives a gradient of 17c

Allignment

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013030812/ECM1-72.GIF?08-0

the UKMO surface temps for monday max out at 0c but are widely lower than that in the suburbs.

post 102 winds swing to the north & it dries up, however if we get clear skies it could negate the slightly milder uppers-

HOT off the press ECM uppers

T48 -7c

T72 -12c

T96 -11c

T120 -7c

T144 -8c with more chances of snow flurries in the east in a direct northerly-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013030812/ECF1-144.GIF?08-0

After that its all down to the atlantic shortwave....

S

[Tamara]

T72 ECM has the low fractionally deeper than the UKMO

Edited March 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Tom Jarvis]

if you want prolonged cold spell just look at the NAVGEM!!!!!

[john pike]

cold air still over the south east

just, but still here