South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[john pike]

these are the 2m temperature ensembles from the 06 gfs suite

for surrey area

look at the temperature from the 17th onwards

barely goes above 0

thats the green line for gfs main run

lets see where the 12z goes

[Suburban Streamer]

It might sound very biased because of my location but in all seriousness, I'm expecting a consistent 'northerly nudge' of this low pressure system. It's been modeled slowly edging Northward by about 30-50 miles every day meaning that by tomorrow, North London southward could see this significant snowfall, and by Sunday, maybe more of Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Suffolk?

thats the spirit mate!!

[Heisenberg]

It might sound very biased because of my location but in all seriousness, I'm expecting a consistent 'northerly nudge' of this low pressure system. It's been modeled slowly edging Northward by about 30-50 miles every day meaning that by tomorrow, North London southward could see this significant snowfall, and by Sunday, maybe more of Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Suffolk?

Keep saying things like PS. and I will join the excitement.....I really REALLY hope you are right...(put the second really into caps to make sure it happens)....Straw clutch anyone?

[Tamara]

funnily enough i'm hoping for the same! monday looks better for us but maybe we will be pleasantly surprised on sunday eve - fingers crossed!

I think that the wording of the METO advisory says it all in terms of further updates being probable and from your pov plenty of time for surprises . There is no way that the geographical extent of the potential snow zone is finalised for some time to come (if at all till an actual nowcast). There are so many weather dynamics in the equation that for all the professional guidance, this set-up easily could make mugs of anybody. Its easy for us to type what we think and have some fun, but I think the task at METO HQ is a highly unenviable one. Even more especially with it being Mothers Day weekend and lots of people needing to travel

Edited March 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[chionomaniac]

I think that the wording of the METO advisory says it all in terms of further updates being probable and from your pov plenty of time for surprises . There is no way that the geographical extent of the potential snow zone is finalised for some time to come (if at all till an actual nowcast). There are so many weather dynamics in the equation that for all the professional guidance, this set-up easily could make mugs of anybody. Its easy for us to type what we think and have some fun, but I think the task at METO HQ is a highly unenviable one. Even more especially with it being Mothers Day weekend and lots of people needing to travel

Very much so Tamara. These precipitation events occur all year long and are adjusted right up to T+0 all the time. It is only that we ever take notice when snow is a possibility. Hands up on here who has tracked todays rain event for the last week with so much scutiny that Mondays possible event will get? Certainly not I!

[alexisj9]

I think people are worrying to much about how far north that weather front gets, With the collision of warm air and cold air that looks like happening, I would expect some very beefy/thundery showers ahead of that front. I don't think anyone has anything to worry about at all.

[Suburban Streamer]

I think that the wording of the METO advisory says it all in terms of further updates being probable and from your pov plenty of time for surprises . There is no way that the geographical extent of the potential snow zone is finalised for some time to come (if at all till an actual nowcast). There are so many weather dynamics in the equation that for all the professional guidance, this set-up easily could make mugs of anybody. Its easy for us to type what we think and have some fun, but I think the task at METO HQ is a highly unenviable one.

totally agree Tamara - the snow zone is far from set in stone, i'm just praying we see a northward shift and none of that southward nonsense!

i find just keeping my family up to date a huge responsibility lol

hands up on here who has tracked todays rain event for the last week with so much scutiny that Mondays possible event will get? Certainly not I!

not me! tho i have been gazing at the radar today wishing it was monday right now!

Edited March 8, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Heisenberg]

erm...not really everyone

this is a huge regional thread!

Ok to put it another way....Met warning for a lot of UK locations on twitter, SE, SW, NW, Yorks and humber, West Mids, (i could go on but wont). What i meant was there is not a warning for our area. I know things can and will change though so im not calling in the fat lady yet.

As others have said this has been trending northwards on each run so im hopeful that this will continue and will give a wider spread for others in the region.

[Met4Cast]

Having literally just moved to Leeds Village (near Maidstone) what type of Streamer would I be looking at for snow? Kent Streamer?

[Tamara]

totally agree Tamara - the snow zone is far from set in stone, i'm just praying we see a northward shift and none of that southward nonsense!

i find just keeping my family up to date a huge responsibility lol

not me! tho i have been gazing at the radar today wishing it was monday right now!

Well hopefully many mums will be able to stay at home and have both their families around them, and also be able to enjoy the snow. Best of all worlds One spoiler is that southward nonsense you mention....the fish in the channel would be the only beneficiaries plus our gallic neighbours across the water itself ..

[Heisenberg]

totally agree Tamara - the snow zone is far from set in stone, i'm just praying we see a northward shift and none of that southward nonsense!

i find just keeping my family up to date a huge responsibility lol

not me! tho i have been gazing at the radar today wishing it was monday right now!

LOL I hear you there. Its not just familly, Ive got work colleagues asking whats going to happen......Family, friends and the rest....I keep saying the same old lines, nothing nailed on, could be this, might be that....

[Steve C]

Well, I’m going to miss all this, as I’ll be in Fuerteventura by tomorrow evening.

Normally I’d not be at all bothered, as I really don’t care for snow that melts almost as quickly as it falls, or just creates a slushy nuisance in no time; these conditions I’d normally associate with a March snowfall.

However, the situation next week might end up being a once in a lifetime event for some of us for mid March, so maybe I’ll be on this forum next week in much warmer climes, contemplating a visit to the dentist, due to much gnashing of my teeth! Oh well, at least I'll be in an all inclusive place, so I can drown my sorrows!

Edited March 8, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

[Met4Cast]

Could be possibly dumb it own anymore? When I explain the weather to my 9 year old sister she can grasp more advanced terms than he uses in that video

[Coast]

Weather forecasters have issued a warning not to pack away the winter woollies because a blast from the east will bring snow back to the UK this weekend. Despite the glimpse of spring this week, with temperatures reaching a high of 17C (63F) on Tuesday, the winter weather is set to return. Winds from Eastern Europe will be bringing with them bitterly cold weather, especially for the North East and east.

It might be just three weeks until the clocks go forward but temperatures will plummet to around zero with the wind chill factor making it feel more like -4C (25F). This is significantly lower than the average temperature for the time of year, which is around 9-10C (50F). Sunday will see the coldest weather with eastern blast bringing some snow flurries to the North East and east coast.

The beginning of next week will continue to be bitterly cold and it will be midweek before it warms up. Sky News weather presenter Nazaneen Ghaffar said: "Don't pack your winter woollies away just yet because it's going to be bitterly cold this week particularly in eastern areas. "Saturday might be an umbrella day, but Sunday will be a day for several layers."

Heavy rain is expected on Friday night and Saturday, which could make difficult driving conditions particularly along the M4 corridor and in the South East for those hoping to get away for Mother's Day weekend. Both January and February saw widespread snow across the country causing disruption across the transport network.

http://news.sky.com/story/1061968/weather-snow-forecast-after-brief-spring

[Essexfish]

Interesting tweets from the essex weather centre regarding the rain we are currently experiencing. Potential for 70mm of rain to fall between now and this time tomorrow...

[john pike]

Rain in southern Britain easing on Sunday, perhaps turning to snow before it clears. Bitterly cold easterly winds developing. Thereafter, occasional snow showers, especially towards the east. Remaining very cold.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Mar 2013 to Friday 22 Mar 2013:

Often large amounts of cloud through the latter part of next week, but with some brighter spells at times. Occasional showers across the UK, falling as sleet or snow towards the north and east, as well as some central areas. Brisk winds easing later on Friday. It will be cold and frosty with icy patches in places. The cold weather looks set to dominate through much of the rest of the period with some sunny spells but further snow showers, most likely across the north and east, with overnight frost and ice. More persistent wet weather may affect some southern and central areas at times, with the risk of rain preceded by snow inland. Towards the end of the period, conditions may turn a little more unsettled and less cold.

Updated: 1159 on Fri 8 Mar 2013

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Mar 2013 to Saturday 6 Apr 2013:

Most areas are likely to be a little colder than average during this period. Perhaps rather unsettled at times, especially towards the south and west, where rainfall could possibly be higher than normal.

Updated: 1204 on Fri 8 Mar 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

think thats covers most things

also ignore warnings for now

these are likely to be amended and could change 0 hours before hand

[Coast]

Interesting tweets from the essex weather centre regarding the rain we are currently experiencing. Potential for 70mm of rain to fall between now and this time tomorrow...

Most of it's already on my patio and rear garden!

[john pike]

just a bit of fun

seen worse

[Kentspur]

totally agree Tamara - the snow zone is far from set in stone, i'm just praying we see a northward shift and none of that southward nonsense!

i find just keeping my family up to date a huge responsibility lol

not me! tho i have been gazing at the radar today wishing it was monday right now!

We've had one snowfall covering all winter (that's not a slushy mess) so please let the northern extent atleast cover us we've narrowly missed out on so many occasions this winter, I actually went for a drive around Kent and pretty much the only part without a covering was our little corner borderin Essex and London 2weeks ago!

[Sussex Jules]

Most of it's already on my patio and rear garden!

You got more grass left than me. I am pleased upset to say Hailsham Mudbaths are open for business again

[john pike]

CET: (Mar 1- 5): 4.0°C (-1.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (Mar 1- 5): 0.2mm ( 2 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Mar 1- 5): 24.2hr (141 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/

going to be fascinating to see what these figures are showing

at the end of next week

[Met4Cast]

Bish Bash Bosh, latest NAE isn't too shabby

[hernebaylooby]

im back!!! now the colds on his way back i thought id return how is every one? ive just dug out the gloves again

[Coast]

Eyes down for a full house as the 12z runs spool out and I was looking at the +48 hour snow charts (as posted a couple back) and indeed that isn't three bad as a start point for our region later on