South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

[john pike]

What a mess, will it look anything like that for real on thursday, doen't look right to me.

i think it has a LOW probability

[A Wintry Mix]

Glorious springlike weather for my birthday today and again thanks for all your birthday wishes. Have a 'blackbird singing in the dead of night' in my back garden right now, great end to a beautiful day,

You share my daughters birthday, all day i've had 11 this 11 that!

[Keraunic]

Great pics K

Thank you, Leigh.

[Guest bjaykent]

You share my daughters birthday, all day i've had 11 this 11 that!

Wish her a happy birthday from me and tell her all the most witty and intelligent people are born on the 4th March, wish I was 11 again!

[kate1]

Happy birthday bjay kent - and hopeitsnows - hope y'all had a lovely day! It's my twins' birthday on Wednesday so wish me luck for that!

On the weather front, I have to admit - and I never thought I'd say this - but I really don't want any more winter weather - bring on the Spring, please... It just doesn't seem right to have snow in late March, let alone what it does to the plants/crops etc... and I would personally love a bit of warm sunshine!

[john pike]

fridays fax aligns more with ukmo

waiting saturdays now

[john pike]

saturdays fax

close to ukmo

my forecast for next week at present is

i aint got a clue

[Guest bjaykent]

fridays fax aligns more with ukmo

waiting saturdays now

Hi John GFS18z looked very cold until low res when the Azores High takes over but I see what you mean with some staggering difference between ECM & GFS at 168hrs for example. Fax looks the best bet, so will be following your posts closely over the coming days.

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

http://www.meteociel...gfse_cartes.php

Edited March 4, 2013 by bjaykent

[Bluebreezer54]

Mr Pike. If you don't have a clue what chance do the rest of us have

[john pike]

Mr Pike. If you don't have a clue what chance do the rest of us have

hi bb

its a nightmare re the low

sorry mate

i hope to be more clearer tomorrow or wednesday

going to ignore gfs and ecm now

gfs looks very cold and ecm does a couple of days later

if they have the low wrong the forecast after monday would be as well

more fun and games to come

[Bluebreezer54]

hi bb

its a nightmare re the low

sorry mate

Hi JP, only kidding fella. It looks a real mess with all those Lows on the fax charts, and as always I really appreciate your posts. I find the fax charts particularly interesting so thanks for sharing them with us.

[john pike]

Hi JP, only kidding fella. It looks a real mess with all those Lows on the fax charts, and as always I really appreciate your posts. I find the fax charts particularly interesting so thanks for sharing them with us.

hi bb

as you know i am not normally worried about looking a little further forward

this time i am staying quiet as them fax charts at present are not helping

i know your only kidding mate

will try a forecast on wednesday the 13th

[john pike]

only 2 ramp charts tonight 1 warm 1 cold

warm first

cold ramp

[john pike]

if anyone wants to see what fi looks like on these

look at the 11th

big difference

still lots of very cold ensembles showing

more tomorrow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All that really cold air surging down from Greenland and the Arctic is what must be causing all these lows to spiral up as it creates instability over the warmer seas. This maybe also the reason why Madeira, Morocco and the Canaries have seen a huge unusual deluge as there is such a massive push of that cold air that has got very far South.

Good god though, our Atlantic at the minute looks more like the Southern Ocean, with all them storms!

[john pike]

tomorrow

warm dry and sunny intervals, cloud not such an issue tomorrow

14-15 degrees

chance of some mist and fog south coast tomorrow night

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Big dip between 10th to 11th

Gfs main run goes looney 15th on

[Coast]

Good morning regional types!

A nice bright start on the coast with clear skies helping the temperature drop and leaving a frost on the car 'screen again. Patchy fog inland but that's burning off now to what looks like another sunny Spring day.

[Guest bjaykent]

Not a lot of change this morning GFS still wanting to bring cold uppers in as soon the 10th and going into meltdown in low res, ecm slower but wanting to do bring in the cold uppers this time next week and UKMO looking slower again and possibly not tapping into the much colder air which could potentially stay out into Europe but more runs/faxs needed to see where it wants go, JP will be the man to watch over the next few days. No clear way forward but potentially very cold still if we tap into cold uppers as shown by GFS & ECM.

And for those not liking the potential cold ahead, possibly 16c in the south today with some sunshine.

[Coast]

GFS overnight still hanging on to the prospect of flurries next Monday afternoon for us:

Something more intense in The Channel and EA later that day:

Then a re-occurrence of flurries in the East on Wednesday:

If that all came off as currently modelled, we might get another dusting.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning weatherchums !

It's another frosty start here but has the makings of a lovely spring day....oh what to do with myself until I start work at 2pm - I could stay in and do some more spring cleaning....on the other hand I might just go out and make the most of a lovely morning

Have a terrific Tuesday

[yamkin]

There will be many who will think today's 14c - 15c is the start of the milder trend. Temps will start to go downwards from tomorrow and then the much colder theme by the weekend with possible snow on the cards. March will have mild & cold to very cold periods

Will I be celebrating my birthday on the 14th March in the snow

Edited March 5, 2013 by yamkin

[Coast]

Temps will start to go downwards from tomorrow and then the much colder theme by the weekend with possible snow on the cards.

Current GFS free atmosphere for London has the fall in temps from Sunday and the 500-1000 heights line falls to below 520 dam on Monday and Tuesday, a nice recipe for a little white stuff if it continues and pans out:

[Jezzer]

Morning all!Just interested to see how many people want to see snow and wintery conditions now that we're in meteorological Spring?I'm a huge snow fan but am now ready for some warm Spring sunshine, not really interested in seeing any more white stuff or freezing temps until the winter. Are there any other snow lovers out there that feel the same way?

Edited March 5, 2013 by Jezzer

[Guest bjaykent]

Current GFS free atmosphere for London has the fall in temps from Sunday and the 500-1000 heights line falls to below 520 dam on Monday and Tuesday, a nice recipe for a little white stuff if it continues and pans out:

Looks like a cold spell could be on the cards with GEFS ensemble support very strong for Monday/Tuesday, will be interesting to see how ECM & UKMO react to this over the next 24/48 hours.