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Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

chionomaniac
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

Well the 18Z has certainly thrown a curve ball into those predicting a dry easterly!

I would need to get my snow shovel out big time down here if that came off. Heavy snow for southern England for 24hours!

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Further NE just a tad on this run.

Brings a much Higher risk of some heavy snow for the South.

gfs-2-96.png?18

Even better with a big blob in the south. gfs-2-108.png?18

compared to gfs-2-114.png?12

but look at the uppers they are too marginal

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

One problem is the uppers.

gfs-1-120.png?18

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NickR Community Regular

NickR

Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
Posted

Well the 18Z has certainly thrown a curve ball into those predicting a dry easterly!

I would need to get my snow shovel out big time down here if that came off. Heavy snow for southern England for 24hours!

Looks moderate to me most of the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs843.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs903.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs963.gif

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

High doesn't want to sink that fast?

gfs-0-126.png?18

FI still around T96 anything after that is a guess and this run proves it!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

but look at the uppers they are too marginal

Errr - the lines indicate snow. With the cold air slowly burying south the uppers may start marginal but that would be overcome quite quickly as the lowers suggest.

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Guest pjl20101

Guest pjl20101

Posted
Posted

Well the 18Z has certainly thrown a curve ball into those predicting a dry easterly!

I would need to get my snow shovel out big time down here if that came off. Heavy snow for southern England for 24hours!

When chionomaniac do you predict the PV to loosen up my friend? As it seems very strong currently.

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Tonight's updated fax chart for Monday looks a bit different to the one issued last night...

last night.. tonight..

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Tonight's updated fax chart for Monday looks a bit different to the one issued last night...

last night.. tonight..

Yeah the MetO are playing catch up with this one just like their model. It wasn't so long ago they were forecasting the cold to come in next week which has now been revised to Sunday.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

When chionomaniac do you predict the PV to loosen up my friend? As it seems very strong currently.

Are you looking at the same charts as me pj? The PV has been totally displaced to the Siberian sector by strong wave 1 activity and a late strat warming. Yes it may have regained strength after Jan's SSW - but it is taking another hit now (especially the upper and lower levels of the strat) - hence the height rises to the NW and polar flow.

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nicknacknoo Apprentice

nicknacknoo

Posted
  • Location: Drayton Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Drayton Portsmouth
Posted

Well; judging by the Cheltenham crew i suspect an awful lot of posters on this site like a flutter!

I like the look of the extra 'squeeze' from the more ne track of the low and I for one will willingly take the gamble on slightly less cold uppers with the potential for the South coast jackpot.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

Are you looking at the same charts as me pj? The PV has been totally displaced to the Siberian sector by strong wave 1 activity and a late strat warming. Yes it may have regained strength after Jan's SSW - but it is taking another hit now (especially the upper and lower levels of the strat) - hence the height rises to the NW and polar flow.

Just look at the jet stream it"s on holiday in south Spain!
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Guest pjl20101

Guest pjl20101

Posted
Posted

Are you looking at the same charts as me pj? The PV has been totally displaced to the Siberian sector by strong wave 1 activity and a late strat warming. Yes it may have regained strength after Jan's SSW - but it is taking another hit now (especially the upper and lower levels of the strat) - hence the height rises to the NW and polar flow.

Yes chiono precisely my friend. By the way I have started posting in the strats thread and would like some links posted to me to help my understanding of it a bit more.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

One problem is the uppers.

gfs-1-120.png?18

A couple of stray GEFS runs had the warmer uppers even further north on the 12z - uppers still look ok to me but just goes to show anything really could happen yet.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Yes chiono precisely my friend. By the way I have started posting in the strats thread and would like some links posted to me to help my understanding of it a bit more.

the links are already there if you look at the very first post that chio did?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Good old PUB RUN incoming all in FI so its fine

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Slack, convective N'ly flow. Uppers between -5 and -8, thicknesses between 528-522 DAM. Hail, rain, sleet and snow showers.

h500slp.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Well just as the models reach agreement more drama ensues with the GFS 18hrs run taking the cold front very slowly south with the cold undercut producing a long period of snow for some areas.

Looking at the fax charts that tells a different story with a very strong ene flow followed by a front moving south on Tuesday, that's a difficult call because of the mild sector, at this range it might expand or we might see the occlusion modelled further west.

So that will effect snow potential. It could be that the GFS 18hrs run is just too slow given the other guidance, but still chances of some backedge snow as the front clears.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

Slack, convective N'ly flow. Uppers between -5 and -8, thicknesses between 528-522 DAM. Hail, rain, sleet and snow showers.

h500slp.png

There certainly looks like there could be a bit of everything thrown in with this run (though not mild). I am glad you didn't mention graupel though Crewe!

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Cheers John I will have to scroll then and fish for it.

not difficult, simply go to page 1 from the latest with no need to scroll!

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