Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Not very cold in the South come Sunday afternoon. Feeling very cold Midlands North though.

06z was colder run for the South on Sunday.

Very cold everywhere on Monday.

Come Weds it back to milder temps for everyone. Probably feeling quite pleasant in any sunny spells. GFS 06z also showed it warming up slightly come Weds to. Still looks like only 2 very cold days max based on current outputs.

A warm up mid-week has also been signaled on the last GFS and ECM ensembles.

Edited March 7, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Mucka]

GEM probably the best for sustaining a cold flow this evening so far.

[nick sussex]

Good to see both the GFS and UKMO producing some good snow potential in the shorter term. However we are now seeing disagreements as to what happens afterwards.

Hard to work out exactly where the UKMO would go post T144hrs, but a real positive is that after all the recent drama at least the final solution looks very good for the initial e/ne flow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Incoming...

[Summer Sun]

Uppers are hardly 'warm' following though

Maybe not on Tuesday but look at the temperatures by Wednesday

A lot milder by Wednesday with any remaining snow melting fairly quickly I suspect

[Cheshire Freeze]

Maybe not on Tuesday but look at the temperatures by Wednesday

A lot milder by Wednesday with any remaining snow melting fairly quickly I suspect

Maybe so but Thursday we have LP parked over us with -4/-5 uppers and 528 dam or just below. With cloud cover that would feel damn chilly

[Captain Shortwave]

Very happy with the output from Sunday to Tuesday, looks very interesting. Especially UKMO which generates a disturbance with would enhance potential shower activity. From there, well look at T144, GFS, GEM and UKMO all completely different. Looks like a north/north westerly source but temperature wise, not too sure at the moment as little features can alter things dramatically. Especially with a lobe of polar vortex dangling over Scandinavia.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

Not very cold in the South come Sunday afternoon. Feeling very cold Midlands North though.

06z was colder run for the South on Sunday.

Very cold everywhere on Monday.

Come Weds it back to milder temps for everyone. Probably feeling quite pleasant in any sun. GFS 06z also showed it warming up slightly come Weds to. Still looks like only 2 very cold days max based on current outputs.

A warm up mid-week has also been signaled on the last GFS and ECM ensembles.

yeah might wear some shorts get my shades out and get the suntan lotion out.....

by far it wont feel like spring even by wed and id say by next weekend a reload situation from the northeast.

gem has 1050 greeny heights although this drifts west in fi but intresting couple of days to come.

[Fozfoster]

Very happy with the output from Sunday to Tuesday, looks very interesting. Especially UKMO which generates a disturbance with would enhance potential shower activity. From there, well look at T144, GFS, GEM and UKMO all completely different. Looks like a north/north westerly source but temperature wise, not too sure at the moment as little features can alter things dramatically. Especially with a lobe of polar vortex dangling over Scandinavia.

Yeah its all a cheeky bonus for all us cold and snow lovers.........

[Jason M]

Dont forget that by mid week Max temps might be 7/8C but that doesnt mean that showers wont fall readily as snow anywhere with uppers of -6C or less.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

yeah might wear some shorts get my shades out and get the suntan lotion out.....

by far it wont feel like spring even by wed and id say by next weekend a reload situation from the northeast.

gem has 1050 greeny heights although this drifts west in fi but intresting couple of days to come.

You might feel a bit cold in shorts, but yeah defo sun glasses in any sunny spells, especially in mornings when the sun is quite low. I prefer not to look that far out into FI. even Weds is pushing it probably.

[MR EXTREMES]

Dont forget that by mid week Max temps might be 7/8C but that doesnt mean that showers wont fall readily as snow anywhere with uppers of -6C or less.

absolutely spot on with temps dropping dramatically in heavy showers i totally agree and there is still a possible reload to but even if theres not this will surely be something to very different and exciting.

[MR EXTREMES]

absolutely spot on with temps dropping dramatically in heavy showers i totally agree and there is still a possible reload to but even if theres not this will surely be something to very different and exciting.

although model prog upper air of minus ect ect is it possible that they could be lower than projected i often wonder if you could add on +1 or 2 or even -1 or 2 just a theory.

like i said lastnight in april 2008 we had lying snow for around a day i wonder what upper temps were then as being march and having upper air temps of -6 to -8 surely would still be conductive of snowfall of coarse more marginal in spring but im just using april 2008 as a guide.

or we could even use june 1975 as a guide what was the upper temps then?

Edited March 7, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Guest pjl20101]

I agree with Gavin on this one to be honest and think any cold will be short lived. Besides I do think there is very low confidence in the model output at the moment. We need matt Hugo on this thread I feel at the moment so it can help us a bit more.

[Summer Sun]

Some milder temperatures took some finding again tonight but in FI as per the 06z they are there which ties in nicely with net weathers monthly outlook

Temperatures in the last third of the month are expected to be close to the seasonal average but the weather may turn sunnier and warmer towards the end of the month with a general build of pressure close to the British Isles.

[Dean E]

Something which has come up a little worse today is the rainfall amounts for tomorrow afternoon in the S/SE. A Low develops just over NE France, enhancing PPN rates.

Something to keep an eye on

SM

Edited March 7, 2013 by SnowMania

[Bullseye]

Some milder temperatures took some finding again tonight but in FI as per the 06z they are there which ties in nicely with net weathers monthly outlook Expected as will be into Spring average temps, general public won't know what hit them this week. Reload potential but nothing mild for next week to 10 days only cold

[legritter]

just a quick post before tonights modell runs ,and they are looking good so far gang ,slightly off topic but local councill just filled our grit bins in village and highways local on alert later this weekend ,lets hope we all get a bonus after this long hard winter of modell watching ,cheers .

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS ensembles, wow took a look at the panel at T168, there are a lot of options on the table. Northerlies, easterlies, and near normal temperatures. I think for now it's best to concentrate on the potential from Sunday to Tuesday because frankly after this the scatter is become rather large. Expect ECM to come up with something different to the other models. It's probably more likely than agreeing with one of the others.

Pretty much with low heights to our north east and a rather complex Atlantic profile. Anything can really happen beyond the middle of next week.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SE Blizzards]

Cracker of a control run with reload chances...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0

[bluearmy]

taken a long time but the gefs finally seem to be going well into monday with the lowest uppers. they had been consistent on breaking the -10c mean by midnight sunday.

[Summer Sun]

NAVGEM is the coldest of the lot so far

But its bone dry

[Paul]

Michael Fish gives his views on the upcoming cold spell in his weekly forecast

[Cheshire Freeze]

Cracker of a control run with reload chances...

http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&mode=0

Cold, cold control run throughout!

[Snowman.]

Cold, cold control run throughout!

Very marginal though.