Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[MisfitDog3]

I know it sounds a bit obvious but in a situation conducive to shower formation the strength of the March sun is really going to throw a large element of unpredictability into the mix! What the models show now and what actually shows up on the day could be VERY different. I wouldn't give the snow forecast charts the time of day at the moment...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It should be noted those are for Birmingham though - not a location I would consider particularly prone to the easterly flow

Nevertheless, ECM produces nothing spectacular in terms of totals at present - could change closer to the time given convective potential

SK

Yes I should have said with possible exception of places in the East. But even then surface conditions for Norwich and Newcastle suggest a couple of days of snow showers at the very best before turning dry for remainder of the week. The general theme is dry and quite sunny for the majority next week based on latest output.

Edited March 7, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[SomeLikeItHot]

Yes I should have said with possible exception of places in the East. But even then surface conditions for Norwich and Newcastle suggest a couple of days of snow showers at the very best before turning dry for remainder of the week. The general theme is dry and quite sunny for the majority next week based on latest output.

Given that a couple of days ago you were saying it was only snow for the highest mountains of scotland, a considerable upgrade!

As those far more knowledgeable than me have been saying we won't know what snow this sort of convective showers will bring till much closer to the time.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Given that a couple of days ago you were saying it was only snow for the highest mountains of scotland, a considerable upgrade!

As those far more knowledgeable than me have been saying we won't know what snow this sort of convective showers will bring till much closer to the time.

It's not me upgrading or downgrading though its the models LOL. I am just commenting on what the current ECM op run shows. If you don't agree with the op run then that is your right to do so. Just don't shoot the messenger

[johnholmes]

why not look in the free area of Net Wx at the comparison of charts? There you can see how each of the two main models out to T+240 have shown each frame both for 00z today and 12z yesterday. I posted earlier that, to my eye, they are reasonably consistent both with each other and themselves. That is IF you are not looking for spurious changes at sea level that will always occur.

[Guest pjl20101]

I think Gavin that with the AO trending upwards things won't be as severe as people are implying currently. Sometimes the models are better than others, I noticed on one of the sites that angular momentum has gone up to an el Nino type of atmosphere and Alex may be able to help me with what that implies.

[Dancerwithwings]

There are some wiser folk that input some info thats very interesting that i find a learning thing for me as we car'nt all be experts

ive been looking in at this site for over two years now and ive taken in alot and its just a tool for me in seeing the up and coming weather

so when some folk slate others for making comments for posting facts at the time or current forecast info this shoud'nt be so

all your doing is frightening off others from making comments! so please we are here for only one thing....... the weather.

Edited March 7, 2013 by dancer with wings

[legritter]

Certainly MET Office fax charts will be the ones to keep an eye on during this cold spell .in this type of set up [synoptic wise ]things will change very quickly ,at this range the broad picture is a notable cold spell with snowfall potentiall for quite a few .any new posters beginners etc ,take notice of regular posters they have been around Net weather a long time and know their snowflakes by name ,honestly snow fall can pop up at very close range especially the convective type .lets hope mother nature can give us a Magical few days .dont forget camera at the ready, as this time of year with snow sun we could get some brilliant photo opportunities.full house i feel tonight ,take your seets for the 7pm ECM ,catch up later .

[Snowman.]

Just going to give you guys some news here:

It's march not the middle of January. If it was January we could see a lot more than what is showing but it isn't. You have to face the fact that meteorology winter has ended so the more you chase the cold the more pressure you put on your self in case it doesn't materialize.

Showers look fairly widespread on Monday I suspect some will see a lot more than already modelled as this happened with the Dry cold snap at the end of February.

Unlike last time we have much lower DAM over us meaning showers are more likely to form. With the strength of the sun they will be heavier in nature.

If your ruling out snow possibilities before we have even entered the cold spell then your going to need a reality check. This cold be fairly wintry given the month that it's in with a possible reload later on but as I said don't get your hopes up.

Edited March 7, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[karlos1983]

I have question, what do we need to see happen in terms of an upgrade or longevity of deep cold on the 12z? And I don't mean "turn the clock back to January "' I'm just curious as to whether I should be looking out for anything during the model output that may make a difference.

Cheers

Karl

[LomondSnowstorm]

I have question, what do we need to see happen in terms of an upgrade or longevity of deep cold on the 12z? And I don't mean "turn the clock back to January "' I'm just curious as to whether I should be looking out for anything during the model output that may make a difference.

Cheers

Karl

Look for the trough to be held further north and the pattern to be a bit further west to get a longer, deeper shot of cold and increase chances for a potent northerly/northeasterly later on.

[Essan]

Just going to give you guys some news here:

It's march not the middle of January. If it was January we could see a lot more than what is showing but it isn't. You have to face the fact that meteorology winter has ended

That's totally irrelevant - the meteorological convention of calling winter D-J-F has nothing to do with when wintry weather can arrive - it's simply used for convenience, mainly with regards comparison of records.

If the same synoptics occurred in early January, the risk of snow fall would be very similar - if anything it may actually be higher now, especially with regards showery activity inland. Conversely, there is also a greater chance of any lighter snowfall melting.

Anyway, interesting to see that the NAE 12z brings snow into the W MIdlands as early as Saturday morning - though I wouldn't at this stage expect much more than a bit of sleetiness during heavier bursts of rain. But it'll be interesting to see if it sticks to its guns over the next few runs, and, indeed, what it shows for Sunday

Edited March 7, 2013 by Essan

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO at T60 has corrected the high a little bit west and the low to the south west of us a little bit east. Almost identical to the GFS which is a little further North than the 06z

00z

Edit at T72, is it just me or do I see a little disturbance over Holland/Belgium

Edited March 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

nice

[Snowman.]

Little feature over Belgium here.

EDIT: Captain beat me too it.

Nothing dry here.

Edited March 7, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

UKMO at T60 has corrected the high a little bit west and the low to the south west of us a little bit east. Almost identical to the GFS which is a little further North than the 06z

00z

Edit at T72, is it just me or do I see a little disturbance over Holland/Belgium

Yes UKMO has continued its correction through today and now is in line with the other models. It has been quite poor modelling this spell and it seems GFS has led the way and been most consistent on this occasion.

GFS has always brought the cold in quicker and modelled heights to our NW and trough to the SE very well - actually it is now modelling snow for Saturday night in Northern England while ECM was going for cold uppers reaching England from the 12th onward at one stage.

I'm not saying it will be correct regarding snow late Saturday night for Northern England but it does illustrate it hasn't really wavered on bringing the cold uppers in quickly and has in fact accelerated the process somewhat.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Mucka

[shaky]

UKMO at T60 has corrected the high a little bit west and the low to the south west of us a little bit east. Almost identical to the GFS which is a little further North than the 06z

00z

Edit at T72, is it just me or do I see a little disturbance over Holland/Belgium

Yes you do!!and there is only one way that is going and that is west smashing into eastern england!!

[Man With Beard]

The little feature running along the south coast is there again - consistent with the 06Z - could be fun and games in Devon and Cornwall if it verifies

[Summer Sun]

T120 has the low sliding down into the Atlantic which will keep that quiet for a bit

The coldest uppers are moving out the way during Tuesday

By early Wednesday the process is complete temperatures by day should be climbing to around 5 to 7c

The coldest temperatures are still on track to leave after 48 hours before moderating during Tuesday still below average yes but too high for snow away from high ground in the north

Edited March 7, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cheshire Freeze]

T120 has the low sliding down into the Atlantic which will keep that quiet for a bit

The coldest uppers are moving out the way by Tuesday

Uppers are hardly 'warm' following though

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Little feature over Belgium here.

EDIT: Captain beat me too it.

Nothing dry here.

I don't think anyone has been saying it will be dry this weekend. The UKMO and GFS signal it will be quite wet almost everywhere. Who gets snow and who gets rain is not even worth attempting to answer.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I don't think anyone has been saying it will be dry this weekend. The UKMO and GFS signal it will be quite wet almost everywhere. Who gets snow and who gets rain is not even worth attempting to answer.

On that chart, anywhere north of the South Midlands would get snow.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013030712/UW96-21.GIF?07-17

Superb UKMO chart- that will bring significant snow showers overnight Sun into Monday-

Estimated uppers at 96- -13c & thicknesses into EA at 96 are 512 DAM.

UKMO Raw sees the threat of up to 10cm in a short space of time for the SE- especially Norfolk Suffolk & Kent.

GFS is sood as well-!

S

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 12z takes longer to bring the Colder 850's in not reaching the far South till early Monday morning .. That would make Sunday much more marginal .

[Snowman.]

FI still around Tuesday.

GFS Does this.

UKMO does this.

So far we could end up with a little recovery time before things become more NEerly.

The 12z takes longer to bring the Colder 850's in not reaching the far South till early Monday morning .. That would make Sunday much more marginal .

in the same way its slowed down the front too.

South would see the odd bit here and there would be mostly snow.