Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[-uksnow-]

Why is everyone getting excited over this?

Its the middle of march your going to need some very cold uppers for sustained snow what your just posting is a chilly wet day that I would expect in December. The further south you live the less excited you should be.

Perhaps because it can still snow in March fairly easily and these are very interesting outputs we are viewing, and being people who are interested in the weather we are finding this period interesting! If there is no warmth on the horizon, may aswell chase this.

[Purga]

ECM 144hrs looks pretty good to me.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensembles remain chilly through out

[Summer Sun]

ECM at t144

Away from the east the uppers are nothing special snow would be marginal away from Scotland and the east coast

When compared to the 00z its a downgrade

24 hours ago

Edited March 13, 2013 by Gavin.

[cheeky_monkey]

Looking likely ECM will follow UKMO at t144

Just look at those temps over Canada not seen anything like this all winter

[ChartViewer]

Why is everyone getting excited over this?

Its the middle of march your going to need some very cold uppers for sustained snow what your just posting is a chilly wet day that I would expect in December. The further south you live the less excited you should be.

This is the model thread and we are posting model charts that are beautiful blocking.....forget the uppers, precip type...the charts themselves are lovely to look at.....I think everyone knows its mid March so uppers arent going to be fantastic but i refer you back to Sunday when lots of people saw Snow in a very cold bitter Easterly for March..

Kind regards

Edited March 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Snowman.]

Perhaps because it can still snow in March fairly easily and these are very interesting outputs we are viewing, and being people who are interested in the weather we are finding this period interesting! If there is no warmth on the horizon, may aswell chase this.

It can snow yes. But where looking at a event that would give us snow in the middle of winter not march.

If you want the snow to settle where going to need try harder.

ECM is a downgrade in it self against the 0z output

12z

0z

[shaky]

Ecm is a beauty!am sorry but that would bring snowfall widely!!the air is stagnant aswell!!thicknesses low aswell!!slight downgrade in uppers compared to 00z but the overall synoptic is there!

[ChartViewer]

Lovely ECM 168

[Cloud 10]

ECM and UKMO very similar at 144 hrs with very cold air being sent back towards the UK.

ecm.. ukmo..

[Panayiotis]

Not as cold as the 00z but ECM at 168hrs is still cold and with a low near us, any precipitation would be likely to be snow away from the south coast:

Perhaps because it can still snow in March fairly easily and these are very interesting outputs we are viewing, and being people who are interested in the weather we are finding this period interesting! If there is no warmth on the horizon, may aswell chase this.

Summed it up perfectly! Edited March 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mair Snaw]

From sunshine to Snow and lots of twists and turns in the forecast is what the weather girl on east midlands today just said, shall be looking forward to that forecast later..

[Katiewombat]

Just look at those temps over Canada not seen anything like this all winter

Another stupid question??

500 charts equal the dam and it needs to be below 528 for snow.

And the 850s are the upper air temps which the lower the better.

K

[Snowman.]

T168

If anything the Scandi heights are causing some trouble. -8 Still not at the south coast when the 0z had -10.

Remaining cold YES. Remaining very cold MAYBE.

Edited March 13, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Purga]

It can snow yes. But where looking at a event that would give us snow in the middle of winter not march.

If you want the snow to settle where going to need try harder.

ECM is a downgrade in it self against the 0z output

12z

0z

Looks pretty chilly at 168hrs

[Summer Sun]

t168 is a slight downgrade from the 00z but still cold nationwide

Snow just about anywhere south coast could be the exception

Edited March 13, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cheshire Freeze]

t168 is a slight downgrade from the 00z but still cold nationwide

Snow just about anywhere

Plenty of snow there Gav

[lorenzo]

Another point on why this is an interesting set up for March just look back 12 months.

From one exceptional warm spell and a belter of a High delivering for here one of the best sunny spells of last year, alongside the projections from ECM for 20th.. Massive contrast. A story in itself.

[mushymanrob]

You do seem to get your facts wrong quite often MMR, ECM 00z was very cold.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif (00z at time of posting)

We will have to wait and see what the ECM 12z brings us.

as quoted, i said the ecm has backed off from the more severe. lastt nights 12z was far colder then todays 00z. that makes what i posted correct. yes the ecm 00z wascold but not as cold as the previous run.

[shaky]

the ecm would give frontall snowfall anywhere across the uk from saturday night onwards in my opinion!!especially during the night!!

[Snowman.]

That is still impressive with a much stronger block over the pole than any other model.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A point to make about it being March: the average 850hPa temperature around the British Isles is similar to what it is in December- continental air masses tend to be warmer at this time of year, but the North Sea is colder (hence less warm modification) and it is generally colder to the north of the Arctic Circle.

The main difference at this time of year relative to January/February is that solar heating is stronger and therefore unless we get an exceptionally cold blast, like the one that we had a couple of days ago, in a typical sunshine-and-snow-showers setup the temperature will get up to 4-6C in the sunny intervals at the warmest time of day, initiating a rapid thaw. In frontal situations the difference is also diurnal- overnight you're probably at least as likely to get snow from a March frontal setup as an equivalent December one with the same temperature profiles, but during the warmest time of day solar heating (despite the absence of sunshine) will tend to lift the temperature a little unless you have moderate to heavy snow.

There is a popular view that snow events in March tend to be slush-fests, but I think this only really holds true for marginal frontal situations (in showery setups any marginal slushy stuff tends not to survive for long in the sunny intervals in between the showers) and of course slush-fests are far from unusual at other times of the year (both convective and frontal) if temperatures are marginal.

Edited March 13, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

Coldest uppers relax slightly at t192 especially for the south coast

Quite different from this morning

00z

12z

Edited March 13, 2013 by Gavin.

[mushymanrob]

yup, the 12z ecm tonight is a very cold and snowy one. if that came off i expect records to be broken, snowfall ones! but we have been here many times before only for it to downgrade.

[Purga]

Interesting, the LP over the UK seems to be being ejected westwards ahead of some really cold uppers heading our way