Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[Mucka]

"Spring remains firmly on hold..."

No it doesn't. Spring is here right now. It IS spring. I'm finding this phrase a bit frustrating - presumably spring will only stop being "on hold" when the temperature reaches 20c? I think people are suffering from snowblindness or some sort of hangover from last march.

It might be remaining cold for the time of year (but increasingly it looks like milder air - albeit wet - will at least make into to the south as next week progresses) but is still spring.

There's nothing un spring like about this chart:

It's simply a phrase that describes the fact there is no quintessential Springlike weather in the reliable timeframe - I note you post an FI chart (and an outlier at that) to make your case.

Frankly I find such pedantry frustrating.

[Summer Sun]

GME slower with the advancement of cold air heading south on its 12z

0z:

12z:

Scotland and N'ern England still looking 'Good' though.

Gets there eventually but the south coast doesn't look like seeing much snow this week at present, high ground in the north looks like seeing 15cm and maybe more with some "substantial" snow drifts in places especially during Tuesday when the snow is likely to be at its peak

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is pretty much as you were so far

1065mb Northern Blocking

Uppers east back ever so slightly in the north from -12c to -8c apart from North east scotland

[Snowman.]

Further south than the 6z but its the 6z doesn't matter.

12z 6z

[Summer Sun]

Milder air just starting to creep into the far south west by Thursday uppers other northern England slowly ease through the day

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[shaky]

Yup looks like gfs takin the milder route!!am afraid ecm and ukmo might be on there own now!!gfs is really consistent!!

[Summer Sun]

GFS been very consistent lately with this milder route towards the south west

Edited March 17, 2013 by Gavin.

[SMU]

UKMO really selling the undercut

these are classic charts-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031712/UW72-21.GIF?17-16

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031712/UW96-21.GIF?17-17

S

[Captain Shortwave]

Yup looks like gfs takin the milder route!!am afraid ecm and ukmo might be on there own now!!gfs is really consistent!!

The laws of mathematics forbids this statement to be true

A bit more trough disruption on the GFS due to stronger pressure to the north. Hence better cold pool to the North East as less in the way of mild air infiltrates Northern and Eastern Europe.

UKMO is a lot better though

Edited March 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031712/UW30-21.GIF?17-16

Heavy snow moving into the NE & Eastern Scotland- Deep falls expected spreading west-

S

[shaky]

The laws of mathematics forbids this statement to be true

A bit more trough disruption on the GFS due to stronger pressure to the north. Hence better cold pool to the North East as less in the way of mild air infiltrates Northern and Eastern Europe.

UKMO is a lot better though

lol!!i just hate the gfs for being so mild everytime😡!!anyway like you said ukmo is a lot betterðŸ˜

[AWD]

At 72 hours, the UKMO is a little more bullish about the southern extent of the cold airmass;

Compared to the GFS;

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031712/UW30-21.GIF?17-16

Heavy snow moving into the NE & Eastern Scotland- Deep falls expected spreading west-

S

what about the rest of the uk such as england steve?

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO T120

Going under.

[SMU]

Snow moving NE into the SW & Across the southern coastal areas-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17

Anyone expecting a warm up sub day 8 is looking at the wrong model-

S

what about the rest of the uk such as england steve?

A lot of no mans land very cold air- howover like today areas of snow circulating will turn up anywhere-

S

[shaky]

UKMO T120

Going under.

Yes yes yes!!!!!and look at the cold uppers cominng west!!

[Mr Frost]

Some quite ridiculous snow totals for late March if this GFS verifies! Scotland, Northern/Central/Eastern parts of England would be in for a absolute pasting.

Truly is incredible.

If you live in these parts and enjoy cold weather get excited! You may not see the likes again for another 50 years in late March!

UKMO insane for Scotland

GFS a few days later.

Edited March 17, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Zakos]

Wow...

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?17-17

Heavy snow for the SW & the south -

Thats a historic chart.

S

Edited March 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Staffordshire]

Some quite ridiculous snow totals for late March if this GFS verifies! Scotland, Northern/Central/Eastern parts of England would be in for a absolute pasting.

Truly is incredible.

If you live in these parts and enjoy cold weather get excited! You may not see the likes again for another 50 years in late March!

Is that snow depth chart not for gfs? ukmo would have it much further south

[shaky]

Oh my lord what a ukmo!!thats boosted my confidence now!!and if ecm follows later then bingo and goodnight gfs!!

[Matty M]

120 and 144 UKM are stunners! Doesn't quite look to be going well if you looked at the T96hr chart in isolation but looking at the movement from 72-96hrs shows them heights over Scandanavia buckling west.

Mammoth charts and hard to believe for LATE MArch!

[mcweather]

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?17-17

Heavy snow for the SW & the south -

Thats a historic chart.

S

Indeed it is Steve

Blizzard of 78 anyone lol

Loving these southward corrections

Edited March 17, 2013 by mcweather

[Katiewombat]

To tired today to try and read the models today from the learners point of view. Is this looking good for the chilterns again.

Kx

[SMU]

If only the UKMO went to 168 ..... The squeeze being forced even more-

Could be an EPIC week for some...-

Not sure about here but happy to watch from the sidelines.

Meanwhile probs 30-40 cm for scotland East.

S